Tag: John Lackey

 Boston Red Sox

Finding the key to Lackey

MLB: Red Sox vs Tigers MAY 16
I've struggled this season to answer why John Lackey has been so off from anything we have seen from him previously. His Pitch F/x says he has added more cutters, but is that the only change and is it real? After some research I think I have found more of an answer and perhaps bring us closer to a solution. Let's start from the top with Lackey's career K/BB at 2.62 he stands as a very solid arm, but in 2010 he has a dismal 1.22. That comes from troubles in strikeouts and walks and little evidence in the numbers to point to one problem. I have spent plenty of time on this site trying to figure it out since he could be the hinge for the 2010 season being successful. Finally thanks to the Fangraphs.com splits I think I can get a step closer to identifying the problem. If you look at his K/9, BB/9 and K/BB in his lefty vs righty numbers there is a huge red flag. Against right handed batters this year Lackey has a stellar 3.83 K/BB with great control. Then you look at his lefty match-up and you see an amazingly bad 0.62 K/BB.

June 5, 2010 Troy Patterson
Clay Buchholz

Drew Back on Track, A Thing or Two About Numbers, What is Fixable?

MLB: Red Sox vs Orioles MAY 02
Drew Back on Track No Sox hitter in the past two weeks has been hotter than J.D. Drew. In Boston’s last ten games, he’s batted 17-for-36 with three homers. The eight Ks are a bit unfortunate, but nothing concerning. Not including last night, his first strike percentage is down to 63.4 from 72.7, his BABIP is up to .329 from .194. What is particularly exciting about Drew’s performance is the type of contact he’s making. Besides it being hard and consistent, he’s been doing an excellent job of sending the ball the other way on two strikes. According to MLB.com’s Fenway Park hit chart, Drew has four opposite field singles this season to go along with two doubles. In 2009, he had all of five singles (seven depending on how narrowly or widely you define the left field) and five doubles (up to nine for the width of left field). In particular, Drew has been serving these opposite field singles with two strikes. Keeping his hands back and serving outside pitches into right field means he’s timing the ball much better than he had been. Lots of hitters in slumps will get ahead of the pitch and roll the ball over to the pull side...

May 10, 2010 mike silver
John Lackey

Lackey continues to allow contact

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
We have learned over the years that the only things a pitcher can control are strike outs, walks and keeping the ball on the ground. Things like hits and home runs are just a factor of league averages and things like defense and luck. Lackey finished Wednesday night with an ERA of 3.89 and seems to be joining the rest of the pitchers in winning results. The trouble is his numbers he controls don't back that up and he is benefiting by a run of good luck. He has only been striking out 5.10 batters every nine innings, which is down two from his career average. That is a huge drop in one season and very concerning. This is made even worse by a BB/9 that is up from 2.66 in his career to 3.60. His ground ball rate has held at career levels leaving his change in K/BB at 1.42 this year from a career rate of 2.69. All of this doom and gloom points to a pitcher with a xFIP of 4.94. While his FIP says 4.12, which would be ok that has a lot to do with his HR/FB rate at 5.4 percent.

May 6, 2010 Troy Patterson