Month: July 2010

Taking Stock of Playoff Chances

With sixty games left in the 2010 Regular Season, the Boston Red Sox sit five games on the outside of the playoff race and an additional two and a half games out of the division title. According to Coolstandings.com's playoff odds, the Red Sox playoff chances fall just under twenty percent with the magic number of wins to gain a playoff berth around ninety-seven, the Red Sox would need to go 39-21 -- .650 ball -- coming home to earn a chance at the post-season. Thinking back to the torrid end of summer in 2004, the post-Arod and Jason Varitek altercation Sox won forty-three of their last sixty-three games to push a similar record as this team stands now to the ninety-eight win plateau. Looking forward, specifically with respect to the remaining schedule, can this team replicate the legend-in-the-making 2004 run? Unfortunately, it will be a tough road to hoe.

Showing Aces

Oct 1, 2008; Anaheim, CA, USA; Boston Red Sox starter Jon Lester (31) reacts during 4-1 victory over the Los Angeles Angels in game one of the ALDS at Angel Stadium. Photo via Newscom Photo via Newscom
The promise of this season, coming in, was pitching and defense. Instead, to this point we've seen a team riddled with injuries and dependent more on their offense -- despite a recent lull, the team is still second only to the Yankees in all of baseball with 521 runs scored -- than their bottom-third defense (tenth in the AL at 444 runs scored). Much of that blame has to be placed on the injuries to Beckett, Buchholz, Wakefield, and Matsuzaka; the mediocre performance from Lackey; and the the at-times awful bullpen contribution.

However, things appear to be looking up for the pitching staff: Beckett and Buchholz have both recently returned to action with strong outings, while Matsuzaka and Lackey seem to be hitting their strides. Shoring up the starting rotation would be a tremendous improvement for this team, but would it be enough?

State of the ‘Pen

July 06, 2010 - St. Petersburg, FLORIDA, UNITED STATES - epa02239482 Boston Red Sox pitcher Hideki Okajima (R) is taken out of the game by manager Terry Francona after giving up a home run, a walk and a single to the Tampa Bay Rays during the eight inning of a Major League Baseball game in St. Petersburg, Florida, USA, 06 July 2010.
With the Sox bullpen letting another late lead slip away Sunday, there is little question that the collapse of the relief corps has been one team’s bigger issues this season.

Compounding issues is the news that the Sox may not be making any significant adds at the deadline. While not a white flag by any means, the team is firmly stuck in limbo -- not close enough to Tampa to make a deadline splash, but not far enough away to plan for 2011.

A quality seventh inning reliever would do wonders for the bullpen, giving the team a much stronger bridge through the late innings. In particular, a quality non-LOOGY left-hander would be optimal, but that move doesn’t seem to be in the works.

Nevertheless, it’s time we took stock of what we have. The following is a rundown of the top five hurlers in the pen, what they can do, and how they fit in with the pen’s structure...

Ryan Dent must work on hitting to crack bigs

At the risk of using a bad pun, the Boston Red Sox hope Ryan Dent will make a major “dent” in their defense and base running in the not-too-distant future.

As a means of explanation …

A sandwich pick in the 2007 draft, Dent last season was named Boston’s Minor League Defensive Player of the Year after splitting time between Greenville and Salem. And, in June, he was named the organization’s Minor League Base Runner of the Month.

Lackey starting to show some signs

July 10, 2010 - Toronto, Ontario, Canada - 10 July 2010: Red Sox starter John Lackey.
Lackey starting to show some signs I’ve taken the enigma that is John Lackey as my pet project this year and looked at everything from new pitches to catchers as possible reasons for struggling in 2010.

Nothing seems to give a full answer and the only solid reasoning this year was trouble with left handed batters and nibbling as seen in his Pitch f/x. June started to change that as his K/BB was 2.67 that month and hopefully a sign of better things.

‘Tis the season… it is better to give than receive

New York Yankees catcher Francisco Cervelli stands near Boston Red Sox J.D. Drew, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis as they celebrate Drew's 3-run homer in the fifth inning at Yankee Stadium in New York City on May 17, 2010. UPI/John Angelillo Photo via Newscom
The calendar is closing in on July 31, 2010 and most are discussing who could the Red Sox acquire to help the team close the gap in the A.L. East. But few talk about the prospects that could be moved until a year or two or twenty years from now. Hopefully, the Olde Towne Team will not give up another future Hall of Famer this summer.

Hopefully, the Olde Towne Team will not give up another future Hall of Famer this summer. Two that could go are Lars Anderson and Oscar Tejada . The former Red Sox top prospect could now find his w

Fireside Chats #85: Where we prime the trade deadline primer

Who's coming (Jason Werth, Leo Nunez, Jack Hannahan?) or who's going (J.D. Drew, Jed Lowrie, Jonathan Papelbon)...Are the Sox buying or selling over the next week? Paul and I break down all there is to break down heading into the fervor that is trade deadline week. And Paul may have developed the next great Saber-metric pitching stat in QSERA Adjusted...you figure it out! All that and more on this episode of Fireside Chats.