The Sox are starting to turn things around. The offense and pitching is showing signs of life. Though I’d love to continue to look at the bright side of things, there are still some major concerns with this team. Clay Buchholz is one of them.
Bear with me. There is some good that comes with the bad…
Yesterday, Fire Brand founder Evan Brunell wrote about Jarrod Saltalamacchia and his short leash over at CBSSports.com. Along with that particular concern, most of us here at Fire Brand have, in one way or another, expressed our concern with Clay Buchholz’s early season performance.
Buchhloz had great results in 2010 and he was rewarded with a fat contract. While most in the sabermetric community expected a regression from his 2010 numbers, his current stats are worse than I think anyone expected them to be at this point.
Last night, Buchholz threw 5.1 innings and only allowed one earned run. However, he walked four while striking out only two and opposing hitters managed six hits with one being of the four-base variety.
The A’s are an improved team, but they don’t have an offense to be threatened by.
In Clay’s first four starts, he has walked 14 in 15.1 innings (6.2 BB/9) while striking out only eight. While still generating plenty of ground balls, Buchholz had allowed six home runs. We have now seen six long balls in 20.1 innings from Buchholz. Last season, he only allowed nine homers.
Clearly, location has been a problem. However, it is also something that is destined to improve.
Buchholz doesn’t have the best command/control in the world, his 1.8 K/BB rate from last season suggested that, but he’s not going to continue to walk over six per nine this season — the highest BB/9 last season was 4.8 (min 100 IP). Along the same lines, he’s not going to allow over 2.6 home runs per nine innings either — the highest HR/9 last season was 2.1, by Ryan Rowland-Smith (Buchholz is not THAT bad).
The issue he is two-fold. Buchholz hasn’t been able to keep his pitches down in the zone and when his pitches have been elevated, he has been hit hard.
Even with the Sox current 4-1 run, there is a lot to be worried about (sorry, just being realistic). The starting rotation is at the forefront of those worries. Can Buchholz find his command? Can we believe in Dice-K? Can Lackey live up to…um…any sort of expectations? Can Beckett be consistent?
Lester is the man, so no worries there.
Going forward, Clay Buchholz should see more success and he should find a groove that allows him to hit his spots more often and limit his home runs allowed.
He SHOULD, but if he doesn’t, there’s no way the Sox make the playoffs.