The Hot Stove is Still Burning in Boston

Even though the hot stove has turned luke warm around the rest of the league, it’s still piping hot in Boston.  To keep you up to date on all of the latest news and information, I’ve put together another piece where I touch upon the most pertinent issues of the day.

The Starting Pitching Watch:  Roy Oswalt and Gavin Floyd

As Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston reported earlier today, the Red Sox are still aggressively pursuing Roy Oswalt and have made him an offer.  If they don’t succeed in landing the former Astro and Phillie (which seems increasingly likely), the front office will likely turn their attention toward trying to swing a trade with White Sox for right-handed starting pitcher Gavin Floyd.

Earlier in the offseason, Ben Cherington checked in with Kenny Williams regarding Floyd, only to find the price was too expensive.  Since that time, the White Sox have lost Mark Buehrle to the Marlins via free agency; traded Sergio Santos and Carlos Quentin to the Blue Jays and Padres, respectively; and watched the Tigers, their primary divison rival, add Prince Fielder to their already talented (yet defensively challenged) roster.  As a result, it’s probably safe to say that the White Sox will look to go into full rebuilding mode; thereby lowering the price on Floyd.  Also, as Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal stated, the Red Sox will need to clear a spot or two on the 40-man roster soon, so a trade would probably be the best way to alleviate the roster pinch.

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Analyzing MLB’s Top 100 Prospect List

In case you missed it earlier today, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com released his top 100 prospect list.  Whether you’re a prospect geek or not, you should check out the list–even if it’s only to see who the potential stars of tomorrow will be.  Here’s a breakdown of where the Red Sox prospects fell on his list.

Will Middlebrooks (#56) – Overall, Mayo gives Middlebrooks a positive, fair review.  He tells us what we already know (good power, above average defensively, impatient at the plate), but doesn’t provide us with any new insight.  If Middlebrooks can become a little more disciplined at the plate and continue to develop his raw power, there’s a good chance he’ll eventually be an All-Star.  By the same token, he could become Dallas MacPherson with a good glove if his development stalls.  He’s going to start the season in AAA Pawtucket, and hopefully won’t arrive in Boston until it’s time for September call-ups.  (I say “hopefully” because if he’s being called up, it means Kevin Youkilis is injured.)  Another full season hitting against tougher near-MLB quality pitching should go a long way towards readying him for MLB action in 2013.

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The Post Where We Get Optimistic on Daniel Bard

I know we have spoken about Daniel Bard a few times this offseason, but while reviewing projections I found one off the charts and had to look twice. The projection system was OLIVER and is a pay required system at HardballTimes.com/Forecasts. (As a THT writer I highly recommend buying this) The system projects a huge year for Bard in 160 innings as a starter, but in the comments the system seems to base a lot of that on a comparison to Alexi Ogando. This is something I had thought about before, but hadn’t taken a real look at.

A lot of the doubt surrounding Bard comes from his time spent at A Ball and High A Ball in 2007, the last time he started a game, but this was only 75 innings all at 21 years old. Ogando on the other hand had only totaled three games started before making the majors. This gave the transition less historical comparison and less doubt about ability as a starter. Is it fair to judge Bard as largely different than Ogando based on such a small data set at a young age? (more…)

What was Cherington thinking in Scutaro trade?

The Red Sox made a baffling move over the weekend by trading starting shortstop Marco Scutaro to the Rockies, then compounded the issue by inking Cody Ross to join the outfield.

In an offseason where the Miami Marlins have channeled the ghost of George Steinbrenner, the Red Sox have become the new misers of the league, hamstrung by several aggressive moves by ex-GM Theo Epstein that has severely limited the team’s flexibility. As a result, Boston has been bargain-bin shopping during an offseason where fans have felt cheated by the players’ devotion to fried chicken and beer instead of making the playoffs. New GM Ben Cherington was off to a great start using a shoestring budget to address the roster’s glaring deficiencies, but his dumping of Marco Scutaro on the Rockies was ill-advised and looks worse with the move to add Ross to the roster.

The Red Sox’s main motivation in dealing Scutaro was to clear his salary from the team so additional moves could be made while ensuring Boston stayed under $178 million in total payroll, with the luxury tax kicking in at that price.* By moving Scutaro, Boston cleared $7.67 million of such space, which is more than the $6 million Scutaro will actually earn. As Alex Speier of WEEI reports, Scutaro’s original deal with the Red Sox held a $3 million player option for 2012 along with the $6 million club option. MLB counted that player option as guaranteed money, so for luxury tax purposes, Scutaro’s deal was viewed as three years and $14 million.

*Of course, why the Red Sox are so desperate to stay under $178 million, even for one year, is another matter entirely. Owner John Henry made a massive outlay for the Liverpool FC soccer club this past year, and the Sox are a cash cow along with Fenway Park. Boston has always sought to stay under the luxury tax, but it’s never been at the expense of fielding a talented team. Until now.

As a result, Scutaro’s salary on the payroll counted for $4.67 million for the previous two seasons on the payroll instead of the $6 million he was actually receiving. When Boston picked up the club option, that changed the terms of the overall deal to three years and $18.5 million. The pied piper came calling to Boston to make up for the lower luxury-tax figures in 2010 and 2011, putting Scutaro’s 2012 payroll figure at $7.67 million. It’s not surprising that Scutaro was earmarked for departure at that amount, but where Cherington blew it was the return for Scutaro and where he chose to reinvest part of the savings. (more…)

A Look at the Red Sox’s Most Recent Moves

The last few days have been pretty busy here in Red Sox Nation.  Ben Cherington and his front office compatriots are slowly but surely shaping the roster into a club that should be able to win 90-95 games in 2012.  In order to stay on top of all of the recent developments, I thought I’d take a little time to touch upon some of the most pressing issues today all in one column.

The Motivation Behind Moving Scutaro

While many of us are still pretty surprised that the Red Sox traded Marco Scutaro to the Colorado Rockies without an obvious replacement ready to take his place; deep down, we all knew it was luxury tax motivated.  What we didn’t know is that Scutaro had hidden luxury tax costs attached to his contract.  WEEI’s Alex Speier explains:

“The player option was treated as a guaranteed year by Major League Baseball in calculating the average annual value of Scutaro’s deal, so rather than being a two-year, $12.5 million contract, for the purposes of determining how it would count against the luxury tax, it was actually viewed as a three-year, $14 million deal. That being the case, his contract accounted for $4.67 million against the luxury tax threshold (rather than the previously assumed $6.25 million) in both the 2010 and 2011 seasons.

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When the Sox exercised the shortstop’s $6 million option for 2012, it transformed his deal into a three-year, $17 million contract. That, in turn, meant that for the coming season, he would have counted for not just his $6 million salary for luxury tax purposes, but instead $7.67 million (the difference between the $17 million he’d make and the $9.33 million for which he’d counted in 2010 and 2011).

In dealing Scutaro to the Rockies, the Red Sox shed $7.67 million in CBT payroll for the coming year. For the Rockies, that’s an irrelevant consideration, since they’re not bumping up against the luxury tax threshold. But for the Sox, who are nearing the $178 million threshold, that CBT figure is a major consideration.”

This isn’t the first such deal the Red Sox have signed that contained potential hidden costs on the back end.  Speier mentions the one year $9M contract Adrian Beltre signed before the 2010 season.  Like Scutaro’s deal, it contained a player option for the 2011 season.  Since the option was held by Beltre and not the Red Sox, Major League Baseball deemed the option as “guaranteed season” since the player held the power to exercise it.  As a result, MLB treated the contract as if it was for two years $14M.  The creative luxury tax accounting allowed his contract to only be counted as $7M toward the 2010 luxury tax.  When Beltre decided to decline his 2011 player option to become a free agent, the contract reverted to the one year $9M deal.  Due to the discrepancy in the two figures, the Red Sox were forced to “repay” the $2M they ”saved” in 2010 toward the 2011 luxury tax calculation.  A similar situation happened when Scutaro’s team option was exercised.

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Ross Is Boss (We Hope), And Where To Go From Here

Clearly, the Red Sox anticipate facing the Philadelphia Phillies and Roy Halladay in the 2012 World Series. Why else would they sign veteran outfielder Cody Ross? Because they were in desperate need of an outfielder who could hit left handed pitching? Because they probably weren’t comfortable with Darnell MacDonald being in the opening day lineup? Because there had to be some reason they cleared Marco Scutaro’s contract off the books, right?

Yeah, you’re probably right.

There are couple reasons why Cody Ross makes sense for Boston right now. One, they did need someone who could hit lefties, preferably an outfielder. With Ryan Sweeney seemingly slotted to start in right field, General Manager Ben Cherington had been in the hunt for someone to platoon at the position. Sweeney is a career .233 hitter against lefties compared to a .296 average against righties. Comparatively Ross has hit .282 against lefties in his career and .253 against righties. It is worth noting that Ross only hit .234 against lefties last year, but he had a down year in general, batting only .240 overall. It wasn’t due to much bad luck as his BABIP was a pretty neutral .279.
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The $6M Question

As Charlie mentioned in his column yesterday, the Marco Scutaro trade provided the Red Sox with $6M in salary relief.  While it might seem strange to many of us that a high-revenue club with a payroll consistently hovering around the luxury tax threshold could need some salary relief, it’s a sign of the times.  The Red Sox got themselves into this situation through a series of long-term, big-money contracts (some ill-advised) that have hamstrung the team from being able to make the moves we might have expected them to make in the past.  As Ben Cherington has alluded (and we’ve discussed several times), it is the Red Sox’s goal to stay under the $178M luxury tax threshold in both 2012 and 2013.  Whether or not you agree with the front office’s short-term plan for building the club, you can neither argue with the level of payroll flexibility that they’re looking to establish, nor the potential benefits they could reap over the long haul.

With $6M burning holes in Cherington’s pocket, many are speculating about how (or if) the Red Sox might spend that money.  Clearly, the hole in the starting rotation that could be fixed by signing one of the few remaining impact free agents.  Also, with Scutaro now in Colorado, the Red Sox now have a hole at the shortstop position as well.  Luckily, both starting pitching and shortstop situations could be filled internally by capable candidates, so the front office doesn’t need to make any additional moves.  For all intents and purposes, they could sit on the $6M until the July 31st trading deadline, and then look to make a blockbuster move that would likely require them to take on additional salary.  Waiting until mid-season is a pretty risky proposition, as it’s possible (though, highly unlikely) the Red Sox will be out of contention by mid-season.  As a result, it’s probably smarter to find a way to spend that money now when productive, impact players are available via free agency and/or trade.

So who might the Red Sox look to pick up?

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Marco Scutaro Traded for Salary Relief

It sounds weird to say that the Sox have made a move in order to clear salary, but that’s essentially what they did on Saturday when they sent their former starting shortstop, Marco Scutaro, to the Colorado Rockies for 26-year-old righthander Clayton Mortensen. Mortensen has a career 4.74 xFIP and offers little upside with regard to his strikeout potential. He has also displayed inconsistent command throughout his career. His one bright spot is a 51 percent career ground ball rate, which means that he at least has a chance to be an above replacement level pitcher in 2012 should his HR/FB rate fall due to a move away from Coors Field. He does have one minor league option remaining, which means the Sox could stash him there to start the season.

The biggest part of this deal is the move that is yet to come. By moving Scutaro’s $6M salary the Sox now have some room to progress toward adding a much-needed starting pitcher like Roy Oswalt. Oswalt has been heavily linked to the Sox in rumors and he’s apparently seeking a one-year deal for around $8M. The Sox have also shown interest in White Sox hurler Gavin Floyd, who will make $7M with a $9.5M club option for 2013.

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