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Left, Since Manny Left

September 2nd, 2010 by Charlie Saponara
Chicago White Sox designated hitter Manny Ramirez walks to the dugout after being lifted for a pinch runner in the eighth inning of a baseball game against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field in Cleveland on Wednesday, September 1, 2010. UPI/David Richard Photo via Newscom

The buzz in Chicago is all about a dread-locked slugger who wears the number 99. No, Ricky Vaughn didn’t grow his hair out and learn to hit the long ball. 

You know him, you love him/hate him. Manny Ramirez is back in the headlines. 

This got me thinking. What has happened in left field since the Sox traded Manny away at the end of July 2008? 

The majority of at-bats had gone to Jason Bay, who had a great season for the Sox in 2009. Bay put up an .897 OPS from the time he joined the Sox in 2008 until the end of that season. Then, in 2009, Bay slugged and walked his way to a .921 OPS with 36 home runs and 119 RBI. Bay walked away from the Sox this past offseason, choosing to take a bigger contract offer from the Mets. 

With Bay gone, the Sox decided to add a defensive upgrade in Mike Cameron, which moved Jacoby Ellsbury to left. Ellsbury went down early with a rib injury, came back, then went down after the re-aggravating the same injury.  This season Ellsbury only had 26 at-bats as as a left fielder and hit .308/.308/.423 with two stolen bases. 

Since Ellsbury has been out most of the year, the Sox have had to mix and match their starting left fielder all season long. 2010 left fielders by number of games played… 

Jeremy Hermida (46), Bill Hall (41), Daniel Nava (37), Darnell McDonald (26), Ryan Kalish (12), Eric Patterson (11), Jacoby Ellsbury (6), Jonathan Van Every (3), Josh Reddick (1). 

Here is how the numbers stack up against Manny from the 2008 trade through 9/1/2010…

 

  

Since Manny Trade AB AVG     OBP      SLG      OPS      HR R RBI SB AB/HR HR/550
Red Sox LF 1261 0.255 0.341 0.481 0.822 63 216 208 24 20.02 27.48
Manny 695 0.325 0.438 0.584 1.022 41 124 147 2 16.95 32.45
Difference 566 -0.070 -0.097 -0.103 -0.200 22 92 61 22 3.06 -4.97

Two things are very clear. One, Manny has out produced Red Sox left fielders in AVG/OBP/SLG. However, The Sox would have still needed 556 at-bats worth of replacement production in this comparison. Given what we knew about Manny’s willingness to play for the Sox at the time, that number would have likely been even higher. The power production hasn’t been off by much and the Sox have stolen 22 more bases than Manny (naturally) over this span. 

In reality, we can’t compare what Manny has done to what the Sox have done in left field since mid-2008. There are many factors that have come into play and altered the ultimate results. 

If Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron could have stayed healthy, these results would have been much different. 

Take this for what it is; a simple comparison based on what HAS happened. Has there been a clear winner here?  The Dodgers and Red Sox both made the playoffs in 2008 and 2009 with their new left fielders. Also, both teams have had to use a ton of replacement level players in left this season. 

When Jason Bay left town, the Sox were compensated with the Mets second round pick. The Sox used that pick on Brandon Workman, who many see as a late inning reliever. Was one and one third years of Jason Bay and a possible late inning reliever worth it?

Yes. Undoubtebly, yes. 

The Sox did what they needed to do at the time and all-in-all they didn’t lose much as far as results. If anything, the Sox were victims of bad luck with regard to injuries — specifically Ellsbury. 

I think most knowledgeable Sox fans are glad that Manny was cut lose when he was. Whether the White Sox benefit from his ever slowing bat speed or not is yet to be seen, but, given the circumstances, I’d rather see Ryan Kalish work through his major league learning curve than watch Manny give a half-ass effort for the Pale Hose on the south side of Chicago.

92880 Commentshttp%3A%2F%2Ffirebrandal.com%2F2010%2F09%2F02%2Fleft-since-manny-left%2FLeft%2C+Since+Manny+Left2010-09-02+08%3A24%3A14Charlie+Saponarahttp%3A%2F%2Ffirebrandal.com%2F%3Fp%3D9288 | Read More
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Fireside Chats #87: Where its all over but the crying

September 1st, 2010 by Tim Daloisio

Episode #87
Hosts: Paul Testa, Tim Daloisio
Guests: none

 

Well that weekend really took the sails out of what was a potentially inspiring season and after a loss and early deficit in Baltimore the Red Sox are reeling and Paul and Tim start the white flag waving.

What went wrong in Tampa and could it have been avoided? Where do the Red Sox go from here?

All that and more on this episode of Fireside Chats.

Thanks for listening!

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92860 Commentshttp%3A%2F%2Ffirebrandal.com%2F2010%2F09%2F01%2Ffireside-chats-87-where-its-all-over-but-the-crying%2FFireside+Chats+%2387%3A+Where+its+all+over+but+the+crying2010-09-02+01%3A34%3A14Tim+Daloisiohttp%3A%2F%2Ffirebrandal.com%2F%3Fp%3D9286 | Read More
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9/1 Online Seats Game Thread: Turning the Page on August

September 1st, 2010 by Jake DiGregorio
Prev. Gm:

Boston Red Sox (74-58) @ Baltimore Orioles (49-83)

Jon Lester (14-8, 3.12) @ Jake Arrieta (4-6, 5.10)

7:05 PM EDT | Camden Yards (Baltimore, Maryland)

TV: NESN RADIO: WEEI 850, SBN

1150

GAME NOTES: The Boston Red Sox are staring down a three game losing streak, after dropping last night’s game to the Baltimore Orioles. Tonight, Jon Lester will try to out duel Jake Arrieta, which would normally be an easy task, but nothing seems to be that easy for the Red Sox these days.

92820 Commentshttp%3A%2F%2Ffirebrandal.com%2F2010%2F09%2F01%2F91-online-seats-game-thread-turning-the-page-on-august%2F9%2F1+Online+Seats+Game+Thread%3A+Turning+the+Page+on+August2010-09-01+21%3A23%3A52Jake+DiGregoriohttp%3A%2F%2Ffirebrandal.com%2F%3Fp%3D9282 | Read More
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Manny Delcarmen, Rockie

September 1st, 2010 by Andrew Lipsett
May 06, 2010 - Boston, MASSACHUSETTS, UNITED STATES - epa02146666 Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Manny Delcarmen reacts after giving up a two-run home run in the sixth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts, USA, 06 May 2010.

Yesterday, Manny Delcarmen — the Boston native who has been with the club since 2005 and in the system since 2000 — was dealt to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Single A starter Chris Balcom-Miller.  The trade ends the Boston career of one of the most popular, as well as frustrating, members of the Red Sox and can be viewed either as a much needed clearing of substandard relief arms or as a white flag on the 2010 season following a series defeat at the hand of the Rays.

Manny Delcarmen was a Hyde Park native, a Jamaica Plain resident, and a West Roxbury High graduate.  He had deeper Boston roots than any player in recent memory, and I’m sure the trade was both a shock and a disappointment to him and to his family.  Still, Delcarmen had been teetering on the edge of a trade or release for years — alternately brilliant and ineffective, he provided the team with value but not with the strong back bullpen arm they needed from him.  Over six seasons in a Red Sox uniform, Delcarmen was a model of inconsistency; stellar 2007 and 2008 campaigns, bookended by dismal seasons in 2006 and 2009, it was hard to pinpoint exactly what Delcarmen was.  Was he a lights out power reliever, as his K/9 rates of 8.4 and 8.7 in 2007 and 2008 would suggest, or a meatballer with control issues, as the inexcusably high WHIPs of 1.594 and 1.642 in 2006 and 2008 would indicate?  As Delcarmen continued to struggle through 2010 — at the time of the trade he was striking out just 6.5 batters every nine innings while walking 5.7 — it simply became time to examine the market.

What the front office found was a 21 year old prospect ranked 16th on the Rockies prospect list by Baseball America.  Chris Balcolm-Miller, if scouting reports are to be believed, has a low 90s fastball but couples it with a deceptive slider and solid changeup.  He’s maintained a K rate of above one per inning for two seasons, and has kept walks to a manageable level – well below two per nine innings each season of his professional career.  At Single A Greenville, it’s tough to read too far into those numbers, but a high K-rate and low walk rate in the low minors is fairly projectable.  Obviously his stuff is not ace quality, but most scouts seem to view him as a potential middle of the rotation starter — in other words, value in a pitching crazed league.

So no matter what the Globe and Herald say, to me this is not a white flag move.  Maybe the Sox are done this season, but trading Manny Delcarmen is not the sign we’ve been waiting for; instead, it’s a sadly necessary move that ends a great local story but brings the team additional pitching depth in the middle farm system.  Maybe Chris Balcom-Miller won’t amount to anything, but at this point, the front office felt — rightly, I think — that the potential for success outweighed Delcarmen’s track record of inconsistency and mediocrity.

92732 Commentshttp%3A%2F%2Ffirebrandal.com%2F2010%2F09%2F01%2Fmanny-delcarmen-rocky%2FManny+Delcarmen%2C+Rockie2010-09-01+12%3A00%3A47Andrew+Lipsetthttp%3A%2F%2Ffirebrandal.com%2F%3Fp%3D9273 | Read More
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Sox, Halos Should Revisit Napoli Deal This Offseason

August 31st, 2010 by Charlie Saponara
May 25, 2010 Anaheim, CA..Los Angeles Angels catcher Mike Napoli at bat in action during the Major League Baseball game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Anaheim Stadium May 25, 2010 in Anaheim, California..The Los Angeles Angels defeat the Toronto Blue Jays 8-3.Louis Lopez/CSM.

The Red Sox were awarded the waiver claim on Angels catcher/first baseman Mike Napoli, but a deal could not be reached between the two teams. It was reported from the start that a deal was unlikely. The Angels were – and should be — asking for a decent return for their home run leader and there is no reason for the Sox to make a rash decision based on their current situation. However, A Napoli to the Sox deal should be revisited this offseason as he has a chance to provide the Sox with an inexpensive alternative to an older Victor Martinez.

Mike Napoli makes a ton of sense in the Red Sox lineup. He’s a pure power hitter who has shown the ability to get on base at a league average or better clip in the past — seems like Angels hitting coach Mickey Hatcher has finally got to him (Hatcher preaches a more aggressive approach). He’s not a great defensive catcher, but then again, neither is Victor Martinez. While V-Mart has had the more glorified career, Napoli has plugged along and hit his home runs, yet at no point has Napoli come close to 500 at-bats. For his career, Napoli has a 16.85 AB/HR rate, which would translate to about 30 home runs over 500 at-bats.

The middle of the Red Sox order will be a big question mark this offseason. What will Adrian Beltre demand on the open market? Will they exercise David Ortiz’s $12.5 million dollar option ( I would think so)? Other than Youkilis, what do the Sox have that they can depend on?

If I had to guess, I would say that there is a 99.9% chance the Angels trade Mike Napoli this offseason and it won’t be due to his lack of skills. Mike Scioscia has never been a fan of Napoli. He likes his catcher to take pride in their defense and, after a fallout this spring training, has continued to find ways to keep Napoli out of the lineup despite the fact that he is the Angels best power threat by a mile.

Can the Sox take advantage of this?

I’m not going to speculate as to what types of player(s) the Angels would be looking for in return, but their motivation to deal Napoli should remain quite high.

Napoli will go to the opposite field and has power the other way, but the majority of his balls in play are to his pull side. That, combined with a fly ball rate over 40 percent, would, in theory, lead to more hits off of the green monster as well as more home runs over the green monster. Napoli has three home runs and three doubles in only 41 career at-bats at Fenway Park.

The Sox have yet to get into serious discussions with Victor Martinez about a contact past this season. Given his track record, V-Mart is sure to ask for a significant deal in terms of years and dollar amount. With Napoli, the Sox would have him under team control through 2012 (arbitration eligible). For the past two seasons, Naopli has held a 2.8 and 2.7 WAR respectively. He is at 2.2 WAR this season, with limited at-bats once again. If the Sox could move Naopli between catcher, DH and first base, giving him 500 or more at-bats, he should easily see a three-plus WAR season.

Again, what it would take to acquire Napoli via trade is up for debate, but Napoli’s days as a member of the Angels are numbered. The Sox need a catcher and they need a middle of the order slugger capable of 25-plus home runs and a league average or better OBP.

While Victor Martinez turns 32-years-old in 2011, Mike Napoli will still be only 29 with several years left until he hits free agency. A proper number of at-bats is the only thing holding Napoli back so far in his career. Let’s hope the Sox are the team that gets to give him those extra at-bats.

92681 Commenthttp%3A%2F%2Ffirebrandal.com%2F2010%2F08%2F31%2Fsox-halos-should-revisit-napoli-deal-this-offseason%2FSox%2C+Halos+Should+Revisit+Napoli+Deal+This+Offseason2010-08-31+08%3A45%3A50Charlie+Saponarahttp%3A%2F%2Ffirebrandal.com%2F%3Fp%3D9268 | Read More
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Red Sox should turn focus to catching Yankees

August 30th, 2010 by Mike Silver
July 18, 2010 - Anaheim, CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES - epa02252982 Anaheim Angels batter Mike Napoli (R)stares at umpire Alfonso Marquez (L) as the umpire calls strike two in Napoli's at-bat against the Seattle Mariners at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, California, USA 18 July 2010. The Mariners beat the Angels 2-1 in 10 innings.

With Sunday night’s loss, the Sox find themselves in the unenviable position of trailing the Rays by 6.5 games. Having failed to accomplish their goal of, at the very least, winning the series – and putting themselves in better position to draw even with a sweep in September — the team instead dropped two of three, all but dashing their hopes of catching Tampa.

While their three-game set at Fenway on September 6 certainly provides a glimmer of hope for catching their Florida rivals, the club may be better served by focusing their attention on the Yankees.

Lost in all the hullabaloo of chasing the Rays these past few months is New York’s growing vulnerability. With Tampa and New York even in both the Wild Card and AL East races, the Sox’ best chance at October baseball has now become the Yanks.

With six games remaining against New York — versus just three against Tampa – perhaps the Sox’ only real hope is taking at least five of those contests. Should Boston find a way to pull out a 2-1 series win at New York on the 24th-26th, the Sox would have to be just 2.5 games better than the Yanks over their other 25 remaining games to put them within 3.0 of the Bombers entering the season’s final showdown beginning October 1. Closing out the season with a three-game homestand versus the Yankees, they would at least have control over their own destiny — albeit it a long shot.

Moral of the story?

It ain’t over until the fat lady sings.

Injuries, numbers, and a 6.5 game deficit be damned.

If the Sox can narrow the gap by just 2.5 games over those 25 matches (closing to within 4.0 of the Yankees), they will effectively have control over their postseason fate.

Unfortunately, this doesn’t give the home town team much wiggle room. Even if New York is to go 13-12 (playing 26 games, having one in hand over the remainder of the season), the Sox must go 15-9. If the Pinstripes go 14-11, Boston must be 16-8.

You get the picture.

Not an easy road by any means, but certainly doable.

Sox Claim Mike Napoli

On Sunday, the Red Sox were awarded a waiver claim to Anaheim Angels’ catcher Mike Napoli — ostensibly beating out the Rays for priority.

Currently in his fifth season with the California Angels, Napoli established himself as one of the MLB’s best power-hitting catchers. With 87 home runs in 1466 career at-bats, Napoli has continued his all-or-nothing ways in 2010, mashing 21 homers in 370 at-bats, to go along with 108 strikeouts.

At the moment, many believe that a deal with Sox-Angels deal is unlikely – Ken Rosenthal citing that Anaheim could receive a greater bounty for their backstop by waiting until the winter. Trading Napoli in the offseason would allow the Angels to negotiate with multiple teams — instead of just the Red Sox, who currently own exclusive trading rights.

Nonetheless, Napoli would represent an excellent fit for Boston, who could give the club’s lineup added punch for a late post-season push while shoring up the position for the future. Napoli’s presence in the lineup and defensive versatility (also has experience at first base) would allow the team to shuttle Victor Martinez and Napoli fulltime between first base and catcher — removing Kevin Cash’s weak bat from the lineup and shifting Mike Lowell to a reserve role.

In addition, Napoli is still arbitration eligible, allowing the club to answer their catching question for 2011 and beyond. His abilities make him asset to any lineup, whether or not he comes with frustrating strikeout tendencies.

Those abilities include exceptional power and an OPS that is consistently north of .800 – and occasionally far above that.

If there is any question about Napoli’s value going forward, however, it has been his diminishing walk rates, which have declined to a career-low 7.0 percent in ’10 (9.3 percent, 2009; 12.8 percent, 2008) and have dragged his OBP down to a measly .317 – another career-low.

At the root of this decline is Napoli’s growing tendency to chase pitches out of the zone. Though most of his significant plate discipline indicators have been remarkably consistent over the last three seasons, his O-Swing percentage has peaked at 27.7 this year — up 4.5 percent from ’09 (23.2 O-Swing) and 5.5 percent from ’08 (22.2 O-Swing).

Intuitively, more swings outside the zones means fewer balls; and fewer balls means fewer walks. Therefore, it’s not surprising that Napoli is walking at a considerably lower clip. Without having watched much of Napoli over the course of 2009 and 2010, it is difficult to say what has caused this regression. However, it is worth noting that pitchers have begun throwing the catcher considerably more changeups this season than in years past (2008, 7.5 percent; 2009, 8.7 percent; 2010, 11.3 percent).

If pitchers have clued in to a presumed deficiency in his ability to recognize changeups versus fastballs, he could be chasing these pitches before they break off the plate — causing the increase in O-Swing.

If he is to rebound from this down year, Napoli will have to cut back on his swings outside the zone. However, pitch recognition (if that is the problem) and adjusting to pitcher’s new approaches, is no easy task and the days of Napoli with plus OBP skills may be over. Nevertheless, .800 OPS catchers are very difficult to find, and his powerful approach makes him an asset regardless of his OBP.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem as if a deal is terribly likely — but the Sox have until the end of the day to find a fit for themselves and Anaheim.

92647 Commentshttp%3A%2F%2Ffirebrandal.com%2F2010%2F08%2F30%2Fred-sox-should-turn-focus-to-catching-yankees%2FRed+Sox+should+turn+focus+to+catching+Yankees2010-08-30+13%3A06%3A02Mike+Silverhttp%3A%2F%2Ffirebrandal.com%2F%3Fp%3D9264 | Read More
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Jed Lowrie and the Sudden Chance to Shine

August 28th, 2010 by Darryl Johnston
Boston Red Sox Jed Lowrie watches his walkoff solo homerun with Toronto Blue Jays catcher John Buck during the eleventh inning of their MLB American League baseball game at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts August 21, 2010.  REUTERS/Adam Hunger (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT BASEBALL)

What is the first thing that you think of when Jed Lowrie’s name is brought up?

::crickets::

Is he a guy who has battled injuries and still yet to blossom or is Lowrie a guy that will turn out to be a first-round bust? Most Red Sox fans I talk to about Lowrie shrug him off or laugh at the notion of him having any real impact in Boston.

Lowrie was a first-round pick out of Stanford and showed serious promise in the Red Sox minor league system, but battled a wrist injury, mononucleosis and some hard luck at the major league level. He has never truly established himself in Boston and as of now, he is mostly an afterthought.

I have touted Lowrie for a long time much to the dismay of my friends and readers alike. When Lowrie blasted the walk-off home run into the bullpen against Toronto, it quickly reminded Red Sox fans that this guy can and should be a legitimate Major League player.

Let us not forget that in Game 4 of the 2008 ALDS, it was Lowrie who singled in the bottom of the ninth inning giving the Red Sox a 3-2 victory and clinched the series over the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

It has been said that once you demonstrate a skill, you always have it — even if it lies dormant. Lowrie has repeatedly shown throughout the minor leagues that he owns a professional skill set. For the fans that do not care or doubt this guy, I offer you this:

Jed Lowrie profile
Double-digit walk rate (Good plate approach)
Above-average power (Gap power, not HRs)
Solid contact rate in the minors (82%)
Can play multiple positions
Works deep into counts
Red Sox ML Quality Plate Appearances Award (August 2006)
Red Sox Minor League Offensive Player of the Month (May 2007)
2007 Eastern League All-Star
2007 Sea Dogs Most Valuable Player
2007 Red Sox Minor League Offensive Player of the Year
Red Sox ML Defensive Player of the Month (Aug/Sep 2007)

How can you not believe in that profile? Granted, he is a guy without a position, and if health is a skill, he is terrible at that — but we are talking about a player with pedigree who was developed by the Red Sox Minor League machine. This is a system that has brought you a cast of stars and superstars and will continue to do so. Think it over before you just write him off because of a tough run of luck and health during a critical initiation period.

At the Major League level, the second base position is filled by a MVP-caliber player in Dustin Pedroia. Obviously, this will not change for the foreseeable future. In reality, this is the position that I think Lowrie would be best suited for given his adequate, but limited, defensive value. Pedroia will be back in full-force come April and Lowrie will be without a spot on the diamond.

So where does he fit in? It is very possible that if the Red Sox fall out of contention, coupled with Pedroia’s injury, that Lowrie will see full-time ABs in an effort to showcase him for a trade. Rumors swirled earlier in July that he was going to be dealt to the San Diego Padres. If there is any truth to that idea, then a successful September may catapult Lowrie into a full-time job somewhere in the National League for 2011.

If he stays with the Red Sox, then one has to figure that Lowrie is destined to be a super-utility rotating between first, second, shortstop and third base.

Or perhaps the two-year bridge plan of Marco Scutaro-to-Jose Iglesias takes longer than expected and Lowrie could be asked to the extend the wooden planks of development and get the organization to their shortstop of the future.

Coming into the 2009 season, Lowrie was thought to be the shortstop. He came out of Spring Training hitting the ball well and was expected to fend off the infamous Julio Lugo for the starting gig.

One thing lead to another, Lowrie sucked, messed up his wrist and the shortstop job became a strange carousel between Lugo and Nick Green. (Fans loved Green too, which I never understood)

Many fans that I have spoken with feel like Lowrie will never amount to anything. Boston fans are really down on this guy. Some people think he cannot stay healthy enough and others think he’s just too much of a nerd to be a real ball player. While I can understand this to an extent, I still think back to when fans complained that Pedroia swung too hard and needed to “shorten up” and that Kevin Youkilis’ dramatic strikeout behavior, oversized chin and odd facial expressions would never endear him to fans. Both of those guys started hitting and suddenly all was forgotten.

If Lowrie fails to stay healthy then this entire skill-set is wasted and he will forever be buried amongst the first round has-beens like Craig Hansen, Andy Yount or Phil Dumatrait. If he can beat the injury bug, then I think you have a switch-hitting super-utility that can work the count, hit for gap power, grind at-bats and contribute when his number is called.

The problem is always going to be Lowrie’s health. If he cannot stay on the field, then we will always wonder “What if?”

Well, at least I will always wonder that. Everyone else will just tell me, “See? I told you he sucked!”

92564 Commentshttp%3A%2F%2Ffirebrandal.com%2F2010%2F08%2F28%2Fjed-lowrie-and-the-sudden-chance-to-shine%2FJed+Lowrie+and+the+Sudden+Chance+to+Shine2010-08-28+07%3A05%3A56Darryl+Johnstonhttp%3A%2F%2Ffirebrandal.com%2F%3Fp%3D9256 | Read More
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COVEROO Trivia: Postponed games

August 27th, 2010 by Evan Brunell

Up until Tuesday’s postponed game, the Red Sox had gone the longest in a season without a postponed game since what year?

HONOR CODE: No search engines.

Check out the trivia leaderboard here.

Previous trivia question: Up until July 6th, the Red Sox had suffered seven walk-off losses in 2010.

The two winners will receive a free Coveroo. What is a Coveroo? A Coveroo gives your phone some personality. They offer over 2,000 designs so you’re sure to find one that fits your style. Choose from the L.A. Lakers to Spiderman, the latest tattoo designs or flowers! With so many opportunities to choose from, the possibilities are endless. A Coveroo replaces the back cover of your phone with a new cover marked with your design. If you don’t think you can win, you can still benefit! Head over to Coveroo.com and put in the code firebrandalfan and get a $2 discount!

92530 Commentshttp%3A%2F%2Ffirebrandal.com%2F2010%2F08%2F27%2Fcoveroo-trivia-postponed-games%2FCOVEROO+Trivia%3A+Postponed+games2010-08-27+19%3A02%3A32Evan+Brunellhttp%3A%2F%2Ffirebrandal.com%2F%3Fp%3D9253 | Read More
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Josh Beckett: Home Runs, Endurance and The Stretch

August 26th, 2010 by Charlie Saponara
Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Josh Beckett pitches against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning of their MLB American League baseball game at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts August 19, 2010.  REUTERS/Adam Hunger (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT BASEBALL)

It hasn’t exactly been a great return to the Red Sox rotation for Josh Beckett. With a 6.82 ERA in August and a fresh four-year/$68 million dollar contract extension on his shoulders, Beckett has been a major source of frustration for Sox fans.

Yesterday, Beckett had a “better” outing, going 6.1 innings while allowing three runs on four hits with seven strikeouts and only one walk. However, one of his big issues, the home run ball, was present once again. Beckett ran out of gas after his first six innings. Having thrown in the 93-95 MPH range early on, his fastball had tailed off to the 91-93 MPH range by the seventh. That’s when trouble struck. Russell Branyan took a poorly located 93 MPH heater over the right field wall for a solo shot. Then, after a Jose Lopez single, Casey Kotchman took a hanging changeup over the right field wall for a two-run shot.

Beckett has not gone a single game this month without allowing at least one home run and of the eight home runs he has allowed only one has come before the fourth inning. Which brings us to issue number two…

This season, Beckett has had a problem maintaining his stuff deep into games. 

Split IP ERA PA AB R H 2B HR AB/HR BB SO SO/BB BA OBP SLG
Innings 1-3 42 4.50 190 171 24 48 9 4 42.8 15 44 2.93 0.281 0.347 0.427
Innings 4-6 33 9.00 154 136 30 43 17 7 19.4 11 25 2.27 0.316 0.382 0.610

Note: I left off innings 7-9 due to the fact that Beckett has only pitched a total of 7.1 innings past the six-inning mark.

The most telling and most damaging part is the AB/HR ratio. Not only does Beckett sometimes lose velocity as games go on, but he also loses just about all command of his pitches as was the case in the seventh inning yesterday. He starts to leave way too many pitches up in the zone. Beckett’s strikeout rate goes down in innings 4-6 and hitters have no problem tagging him for extra bases (.610 SLG).

Now compare the numbers above to what he did last season.

Split IP ERA PA AB R H 2B HR AB/HR BB SO SO/BB BA OBP SLG
Innings 1-3 96 4.50 409 374 50 95 13 14 26.7 29 89 3.07 0.254 0.310 0.401  
Innings 4-6 90 3.40 364 334 37 75 23 8 41.8 23 86 3.74 0.225 0.279 0.377  
Innings 7-9 26.1 3.08 110 103 8 28 5 3 34.3 3 24 8.00 0.272 0.300 0.427  

On just about every level, Beckett got better late in games in 2009.

This issue could be a direct result of the back injury that kept him out for almost two months. As a matter of fact, we can see a similar trend in Beckett’s 2008 performance, though to a lesser extent. That season, he dealt with a similar back issue for just about the entire year.

Split IP ERA PA AB R H 2B HR AB/HR BB SO SO/BB BA OBP SLG
Innings 1-3 80.1 3.92 326 306 35 70 20 6 51.0 11 92 8.36 0.229 0.265 0.359  
Innings 4-6 73.2 3.79 313 292 26 84 16 7 41.7 17 63 3.71 0.288 0.33 0.414  
Innings 7-9 20.1 5.31 86 77 11 19 3 5 15.4 6 17 2.83 0.247 0.318 0.506  

At least this gives Red Sox fans a sufficient “excuse” as to why Beckett has been so ineffective this season. Still, this doesn’t really explain issue number three…

Beckett has been horrible pitching from the stretch in 2010. Sure, the 32.1 innings sample size is way too small, but the difference between his numbers from the windup and the stretch are quite significant.

Split IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 LD% xFIP
Windup 50 8.82 1.98 1.26 19.6% 3.53
Stretch 32.1 6.96 4.73 1.39 24.2% 4.99

Basically, he’s has been a completely different pitcher when a runner gets on base. This goes beyond losing command within the strike-zone, which is a problem as he gets late into games, it shows a loss of control over his offerings. In general, starting pitchers lose some effectiveness when they pitch from the stretch, but Beckett hasn’t shown this type of disparity over his career, except for 2006, his first year with the Sox. However, that season has been the outlier of his career numbers wise.

What can improve?

The only suggestion I can offer up in this case is maybe Beckett should try and ease up a little at the start of games. Even if he’s not throwing 95-plus MPH, his stuff still has great movement and is still extremely affective. Command is the key here. The longer Beckett can maintain his command of the strike-zone, the better off he’ll be and that’s a fact. Beckett has never been a pitcher who throws easy. That has helped him be dominant at times, but has also caused inconsistencies throughout his career and could be the cause of some of the injury issues. Perhaps a little less focus on velocity and a little more emphasis on command could go a long way…as in past the sixth inning.

Long-term outlook

If there is a silver lining here, it’s that Beckett still has the pure stuff of a dominant ace. Since returning from the DL, he has a 41/10 K/BB ratio in 42 innings pitched. He has given up 45 hits, but at least some of those can be chalked up to bad luck as his .352 BABIP against would suggest. If it holds, that BABIP against would represent a career high. Also, his strand rate (runners left on base) is  extremely low (just under 60 percent), which means that an abnormal amount of runners on base have come around to score this season against Beckett. His career strand rate is over 10 percent higher. This should mean fewer runners on base come around to score in the future.

As of today, that four-year/$68 million dollar extension looks like an extremely bad investment. It still may end up being a bad deal, but it won’t be because of Beckett’s pure talent. The main key is health. When Beckett has been healthy he has been an ace-level starter. However, given his track record, health is not something we can rely on. The other key is that Beckett remain focused on his command. When he keeps the ball on the corners, his stuff is so good that it’s hard for the opponent to make solid contact. When he leaves pitches out over the plate, well, just ask Casey Kotchman and his career .397 SLG.

Down the stretch

As I wrote the other day, even Johnny Damon, or any bat really, wouldn’t be enough to help this team catch the Yankees and Rays. The Sox need their pitching staff to come up big.

Beckett could be a major factor down the stretch, as long as he can improve from the stretch and maintain his command deep into games. To expect that to happen, however, could in itself be a stretch.

92382 Commentshttp%3A%2F%2Ffirebrandal.com%2F2010%2F08%2F26%2Fjosh-beckett-home-runs-endurance-and-the-stretch%2FJosh+Beckett%3A+Home+Runs%2C+Endurance+and+The+Stretch2010-08-26+08%3A18%3A55Charlie+Saponarahttp%3A%2F%2Ffirebrandal.com%2F%3Fp%3D9238 | Read More
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The 2010 Arquimedez Pozo Awards

August 25th, 2010 by Andrew Lipsett

In July of 1996, the Red Sox called up a young third baseman from Pawtucket.  It was not his first major league game — he’d had one (and only one) with Seattle the previous year.  He was on no one’s radar as a top prospect, and he shouldn’t have been: his tenure with the team was short and brutal.  He played in only 25 games as a member of the Red Sox, and then vanished back into the minor leagues, where languished for another two seasons.  In 2000, he popped up again, this time with the Mexico City Tigers, of the Mexican League.  After that, he ceased to exist in professional baseball.  His record as a ballplayer was unimpressive to say the least, and his impact less than minimal.  There is really no reason to remember him at all, save one: his name.

The only thing I truly remember about Arquimedez Pozo is his name.  I remember being fascinated by it — the disjunction between the long and poetic first name and the almost ugly quality of the last; the thread linking a classical Greek past to a Latin present, two z’s… the name was perfection, even if the player was far from it.  Since that time, I’ve been carefully keeping track of the best names in Major League Baseball, and granting — in my own mind for a while, and on my old blog for a few years — to the player with the best name in baseball the Arquimedez Pozo Award.  Previous winners include such luminaries of the game as Hiram Bocachica, Rocky Cherry, and Ambiorix Burgos.  Today a new Pozo winner will be declared.

A quick word about methodology: players on the list must have appeared in at least one major league game this season.  Other than that, there is none.  This is entirely, 100% my own opinion.  Personally, I prefer names that just sound cool — either lyrical or comical.  Others, I know, prefer ‘punny’ names (like, for example, the immortal Dick Pole).  To those people I say this: get your own award.  This one’s mine, and I’ll give it to Yhency Brazoban if I want to.

So now, without further ado, the nine top runners up, followed by your 2010 Arquimedez Pozo Award winner.

10.  Felix Pie
I know I just got done saying I didn’t like the ‘punny’ names, but… his name is Pie.  And yes, I know he pronounces is ‘Pi-yay’, but I don’t care.  His name is Felix Pie, and that’s funny enough for tenth place overall.  I will say this: it’s a light year for the Pozos.

9. Jhoulys Chacin
Sometimes I wonder whether some parents just reach into a bag of scrabble letters and see what happens.  Jhoulys Chacin is one of those times.  Maybe it’s a variation on Julius, or maybe someone was eating a sandwich while reporting the newborn’s name, but either way, here he is.  And for the record, ‘Jhoulys’ would net 20 points on a Scrabble board.

8.  Coco Crisp
Coco is the only player to appear on every published list of Pozo finalists there has been, and with good reason: his name sounds suspiciously like cereal.  Also of note: yes, Coco is a nickname.  However, his real name — Covelli Lloyce Crisp — is really just about as good.

7. Burke Badenhop
I can’t decide why I like this name as much as I do.  It might be due to the strong alliteration; it might also be because it sounds like it could be a German dance/neighborhood/Marxist terrorist cell.  Regardless, he is one of those people who — if I knew him in real life — I would only refer to using the full name.  I can’t say it rolls off the tongue, but it definitely bounces off it.

6. Kosuke Fukudome
No comment needed.

5. Madison Bumgarner
I’m a fan of poetic juxtaposition, so this name — Madison, which reminds me more than anything of snobby rich white tweens; and Bumgarner, which sounds like the kind of name you’d have if you lived in a part of Arkansas that hadn’t been discovered yet — is automatically a hit in my mind.

4. Angel Pagan
Another example of juxtaposition making a name stronger.  Pagan is a former Pozo winner, from back in 2006.  I decided soon after naming him the winner that I’d stiffed the guy who really should have won it; sadly, the following year I still couldn’t right the wrong because of the appearance of the immortal Rocky Cherry.  This year, however, the man who should have won in 2006 is back, and he makes an appearance further down the list.

3. Elvis Andrus
People named Elvis are automatically both better and funnier than the rest of us.  Pair that first name with a homophonic Andrus as the last name, and you’ve got a solid piece of work, the kind of name that sticks in your craw (wherever that is).  Elvis Andrus also has a slightly poetic quality to it that I think lends an air of mystery.

2. Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens’ first Pozo appearance was in the 2006 World Baseball Classic Pozo contest, won eventually by Canadian Stubby Clapp.  He played then for the Netherlands team, which went nowhere.  Now, suddenly, he is the ace of an unexpectedly strong Braves club, which means that we stand a decent chance of getting to hear Tim McCarver butcher his name on Fox during the playoffs.  I’m excited about that.

1.  Boof Bonser
Yes, the Red Sox own (for a while) Boof Bonser is, at long last, a Pozo Award winner.  Because — and this should be made 100% clear — his name is Boof.  Seriously.  That is not a nickname.  It is his legal first name.

Okay, it wasn’t always.  But what make Boof stand out from the Pozo field is that he went the extra mile and legally changed his name to make it more comical.  That is the kind of commitment of which Pozo Award winners are made, folks.

So congratulations to Mr. Bonser and the rest of the 2010 finalists.  A job well done by all.  One note in closing, however: no one on that list should feel comfortable about their position.  Why?  Because the Pozo Award has its first ever Top Prospect.  Sequoyah Trueblood Stonecipher is only in high-A Jupiter in the Marlins organization, but he is rising fast.  With a name like that, should he ever reach the majors… no one is safe.  I might even have to change the name of the award.

92151 Commenthttp%3A%2F%2Ffirebrandal.com%2F2010%2F08%2F25%2Fthe-2010-arquimedez-pozo-awards%2FThe+2010+Arquimedez+Pozo+Awards2010-08-25+10%3A00%3A12Andrew+Lipsetthttp%3A%2F%2Ffirebrandal.com%2F%3Fp%3D9215 | Read More
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