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| JULIO LUGO / ESPN.COM |
In one of the most unkept secrets of the offseason, the Red Sox are the favorites to land shortstop Julio Lugo. Lugo, a former Houston Astro, Tampa Bay Devil Ray, and Los Angeles Dodger, has been on the Red Sox’s wish list for quite some time now.
The Red Sox have attempted to trade for Lugo for a number of years now, but have never been able to make it work. Now that Lugo is a free agent and the Red Sox are the only team willing to invest heavily in a shortstop (although the Cubs have shown recent interest), it looks like he could be donning red and white for 2007. Especially now that the Toronto Blue Jays have just spent $20 million (or more) on Frank Thomas over the next two years.
Alex Gonzalez, the incumbent Red Sox shortstop, has reportedly received a 3-year contract offer from either the Chicago White Sox or Cincinnati Reds worth $15 million. The Red Sox would undoubtedly pass on that offer, as Lugo (widely thought to eventually recieve a 4-year, $36 million contract) would be more palatable with the dollars being thrown around.
Lugo is the source of much consternation for Red Sox fans. There have been comments and articles from many people either wanting or not wanting Julio Lugo. It ranges from doubts of offensive potential to concerns over defense. I was in the “No Julio Lugo” camp until this past July, when I tried to figure out why the Red Sox were so enamored by him. I now am in the Julio Lugo camp.
First, the defense. People say that Lugo is not a good fielder. In 2006, he played a total of 81 games at shortstop, committing 16 errors for a .953 Fielding Percentage, 4.56 Range Factor, and .827 Zone Rating. His career is a .965 FPCT/4.69 RF/.848 ZR. In 2005, his numbers were .968/4.94/.841. These 2005 numbers ranked him 21st, 4th and 13th (Renteria 23rd, 16th, 21st) respectively. Again, according to fans all around, Lugo is not a good fielder.
The problem is this. Omar Minaya states that:
“Julio Lugo is one of the best shortstops in the game,” said Mets GM Omar Minaya. “I really believe Julio is an excellent defensive shortstop, let alone the fact that he can really hit. Don’t sell him short defensively. I know teams are looking at him as a second baseman or whatever, but he’s a major league shortstop.”
If the Red Sox are so enamored of Lugo, having been able to figure out just what defense is, then maybe he really is a good defender. It’s very hard to quantify defense, but Theo did a pretty good job quantifying it last year. In addition, that glowing review means a lot. In that same article, it is said that Julio Lugo has the range of Alex Gonzalez, but his hands just simply aren’t as good as A-Gon, which is why he has more errors.
Another bone to pick with defense. Sam handed out his defensive awards earlier this month. In it, he awarded Jhonny Peralta the Sam Killay Gold Glove:
Winner: Derek Jeter (39 FRAR, 9 FRAA)
My pick: Jhonny Peralta (58 FRAR, 27 FRAA)
Red Sock: Alex Gonzalez (18 FRAR, -5 FRAA)
Let’s look at the numbers. Peralta’s FRAR blows away Jeter and Gonzalez. And FRAA? Let’s not go there. So why is it that Mark Shapiro is unhappy with Peralta’s defense?
“It would be an extreme challenge for us to be a championship-caliber team with Jhonny playing, offensively and defensively, the way he did last year,” Shapiro said. “Shortstop is just too pivotal a position to have that kind of performance.”
Peralta hit .257 (146-for-569) with 13 homers and 68 RBI. He committed 16 errors and his lack of range, especially to his left, was a season-long problem.
The Indians made a video study of Peralta’s season. It did not make for good viewing.
“I know he didn’t make many errors,” Shapiro said, “but we went back and watched on video every single ball hit to him all year – and his range was among the worst of any major-league shortstop. There were more balls that an average major-league shortstop needs to get to.”
–Omar Minaya
Ah, defensive statistics.
There are two points I would like to make here. First, simpler is better. I see no reason why a combination of Fielding Percentage, Range Factor, and Zone Rating can’t do the job. Hitting, pitching, and fielding can always be mostly (but not completely) defined by three statistics. Hitting has average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Pitching has innings, ERA, and WHIP (although innings is really used to quantify the former two). Fielding? In my opinion, is Fielding Percentage, Range Factor, and Zone Rating.
Let’s go back to some earlier numbers.
In 2005, Julio Lugo ranked 21st in FPCT, 4th in RF and 13th in ZR.
In 2005, Edgar Renteria ranked 23rd in FPCT, 16th in RF and 21st in ZR.
In 2005, Jhonny Peralta ranked 19th in FPCT, 12th in RF and 7th in ZR.
Sam says Peralta is a Gold Glover. Shapiro says his range is horrible and he needs to improve his defense. The comparisons don’t lie. They are all similar in fielding percentage, Julio Lugo blows away Peralta and Renteria in Range Factor, and both Peralta and Lugo are laughably far ahead of Renteria in Zone Rating.
In 2005, Alex Gonzalez ranked 15th in FPCT, 5th in RF, and 11th in ZR. So the scouting report I read earlier was accurate: Lugo has similar range, but worse hands.
Is Julio Lugo a defensive whiz? Probably not. Are Boston fans giving him the short stick on defense? I say yes. I say Julio Lugo is a major league shortstop, and I say I’m happy to see him man the field in between second and third next year at Fenway.
Enough about fielding. Let’s move to hitting.
Lugo hits for a career .277/.340/.402. Last year, he hit .303/.373/.498 before being asked to man the entire diamond for the Dodgers in limited time, where he hit .219/.278/.267. In 2005, he hit .295/.362/.403. Before Tampa Bay in 2006, he hadn’t shown flat out power, which he only started doing because he started bopping more home runs. In the last three years, he has shown a propensity for doubles – 41 in 2004, 36 in 2005, and had 17 in 73 games for the Devil Rays in 2006. The number is low because in 73 games, he hammered 12 home-runs as opposed to six in 158 games in 2005.
A career .277/.340/.403 with burgeoning doubles power? Turned 31 yesterday (happy birthday!)? I would definitely be okay with a four-year contract worth $32 million for Julio Lugo, considering the marketplace. Remember when everyone scoffed at the money the Blue Jays handed to A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan a year ago? Who’s scoffing now? Lugo is coming at a rather affordable price despite an explosion of dollars because there is really only one team chasing an impact shortstop, and that is our Boston Red Sox, largely considered to be the frontrunners for Lugo.
Julio Lugo at shortstop for the Red Sox in 2007? Totally okay.
[UPDATE] And it seems like J.D. Drew is set to become a Red Sox. “Multiple sources say they are set to sign free-agent outfielder J.D. Drew, the Phillies’ old amigo, for a 4-year, $48 million deal.”