What do you want me to say? That I’m giving up on this team? That we have no shot? That we’re done? Never. We’ve come this far, and we’re giving up on this team? Give me a break. This is where the true fans come through. Either you believe in this team or you don’t. If you don’t, you can’t say you stood by them when we win the World Series. Not if. When. This is the point where you’re either in. Or you’re out. But this is where you decide. This is a column of positivity. This is a column about the 2007 World Champions.
I may be playing with fire by saying this (BOSTON DROPS LAST THIRTEEN; MISS PLAYOFFS. CITY IN RUINS) … but … I’m glad that we’re not just walking away with this division, that the pressure is being kept on by the Yankees.
The last several years, there has been a noticeable trend amongst World Series winners, something that stretches all the way back to 1999, the year after the Yankees won the division by 22 games, a 114-48 record. In 1999, the Yankees won the division with 98 wins, 4 games ahead of the Red Sox, with the Red Sox capturing the wild card. The Yankees went on to win the World Series.
In 2000, the Yankees won the division by 2.5 games despite a subpar 87-74 record. They won the World Series. The next year, they fell to the wild card champion Arizona Diamondbacks [Edit: they were the division champions, I must have mis-read the standings page. The D-Backs were up by two to three games the entire month of September and the Wild Card Cardinals had a better record.]. In 2002, the Anaheim Angels took the crown, winning the wild card. 2003? The Marlins won the wild card. 2004, Sox, wild card. 2005 was the Chicago White Sox’s year, and while they won the division handily (six games), they had to survive a late charge by the Cleveland Indians that meant the White Sox could have missed the playoffs as late as the final week of the season.
In 2006, the St. Louis Cardinals were one game over .500 and squeaked out past the Astros (1.5 games behind) to be crowned champions.
Notice a trend here that has been going on for almost a decade? In 1998, when the Yankees won the World Series, it was because they were so good. I’m sure if we threw out 1998 and looked at ’97 and other preceding years, the champions all had a common thread with few deviations: pressure in the waning moments of the season that allowed the players to be locked in through the playoffs.
This has been credited towards winning a title again and again in recent years. The Cardinals said it, the White Sox said it, the Red Sox said it … it’s been said by the teams, it’s been said by writers covering the teams. Even if the gap between first place gets down to as small as one game … as long as we make the playoffs, I’m content with the pressure. Sure, I want the division. Sure, I’ll be tremendously upset if we have to “settle” for the Wild Card. Sure, I’ll have to endure the “1978” chants. But … if we win the World Series as the wild card, will anyone care? Maybe a few of you. I won’t.
The Red Sox’s magic number, after Tuesday’s games, was down to four to make the postseason.
Look, we’ve been doing this without Manny Ramirez. Kevin Youkilis is now out for about a week. Eric Gagne had his troubles, but seems to have come back great — and yes, I include last night’s debacle… he got two quick outs before a random lack of control that would have gotten him pulled in the postseason earlier. During this rough stretch, what everyone is overlooking is that we are not playing with the full team we will be in the postseason. We are better than we look, because we haven’t been the team that we’re supposed to be. I know a lot of us (heck, myself included) think the Sox won’t make it past the ALDS. But we have a good team. We’re in first place, the playoffs are a near certainty. Even Jim Johnson and I, way back when, projected that the Sox would go 98-66 and the Yanks 94-68. This means I projected the Sox to win the division by two games. The pressure will be there with them just two games behind that it will benefit us in the postseason. It also means that the Red Sox will win the division.
Manny hasn’t played in September so far. For all that Jacoby Ellsbury has been able to bring to the plate, it’s hard (nay, impossible) to say that Ellsbury is replacing Manny Ramirez adequately. Once Manny gets back into left, Youkilis’ hand heals and Eric Hinske and Ellsbury can do their damage off the bench, this team is looking pretty. Factor in the fact that we can go to a four-man rotation in the postseason and lean on Josh Beckett … things look rosy. Daisuke Matsuzaka may have turned a corner last start, we’ll have to see this start … but he looks to be turning it. Just in time. Tim Wakefield is hitting a rough patch, so it’s possible Jon Lester wins the fourth rotation spot … but regardless of the outcome of the fourth spot, Curt Schilling has more than proven he is capable of holding down the third spot in the rotation (heck, even the first) with his 3.55 ERA since after the All-Star Break.
Before Schilling’s hanging slider to Derek Jeter, he was on pace to lower his ERA for the seventh straight game. A high of 4.31 to it’s current 3.97.
Yeah, it’s scary now. Yeah, it’s no fun to lose five of the last six to the Yankees. Yeah, it’ll suck if we have to settle for the Wild Card. But this team is not the team you will see in the postseason. That will have Manny. Youkilis. No fifth-starter. The bullpen will be managed more judiciously to allow only the deserving candidates to come in. Jacoby can provide a threat off the bench.
October is where it matters. Not now. Just clinch the postseason spot. We’ll go from there.
By the way, 58 percent of Fire Branders say that the best lineup we can roll out for the postseason, excluding Ellsbury, is 1. Crisp 2. Pedroia 3. Ortiz 4. Ramirez 5. Lowell 6. Drew 7. Youkilis 8. Varitek 9. Lugo. I think the reason that it won so narrowly is because a bunch of people refused to exclude Ellsbury. Ah well.
