How long will it take fans to panic if David Ortiz struggles early on in the season?
Watching Ortiz fail in the playoffs was something new in the eyes of Bostonians–or fans of the team that resides in Boston anyway, wherever they may live.
A pop in the wrist led to Ortiz missing 44 games, and never fully returning. I mean, he was there, standing in the batters box, but he kind of wasn’t there too, if you know what I mean (at least in the playoffs this applies).
That Ortiz that we saw wasn’t the same one that bashed 54 home runs in 2006. And it wasn’t the Ortiz that reached base just short of 45% of the time in 2007 either.
It was an Ortiz that couldn’t generate any power. One that couldn’t even really be a slapstick hitter. You know, one of those little guys with the hollow averages, that doesn’t draw many walks, and of course cannot hit for power. A hitter such as that would have been more effective than the postseason version of Ortiz was last season.
But how long will fans be patient if Ortiz gets off to a poor start again? Which would be a continuation of poor play, leading to more pessimism.
Remember, just last season, Ortiz was a terrible baseball player during the first month of the season, batting .184/.294/.350 in the month of April.
So let’s say that he slumps a little early on. It seems likely that if this is the case, people will hit the panic button before they should.
One thing that not every fan understands all that well, in regards to baseball anyway, is sample size.
Ortiz has posted OPS+’s of 144 in five of the past 6 seasons. And of course the one year that he failed to reach this number was last season, an injruy riddled year. The last six years should be the basis on which fans grab onto before growing overly concerned if the mighty Ortiz struggles early. Not simply the first month of the year.
Now, I cannot say that I will shrug it off without any feelings of worry whatsoever, if Ortiz does in fact fail to hit well. But I know that more than a month will be needed before we must offer Buchholz and Bowden for Matt Holliday to shore up the offense (which I wouldn’t do four months into the season either).
If Ortiz is terrible, I may worry a little, but I will ultimately think logically about the situation and rely on; the previous great years, the fact that Ortiz is 33, not 36. And of course, I will remember that just last season Jose Guillen was a truly great player for a single month, and that Ryan Howard was truly atrocious. A month is a rather short period of time in baseball life.
I have come to an understanding of what to expect from Big Papi though. Let us assume that he is fully healthy this season, I will not expect him to duplicate his 2006 or 2007 seasons. I can talk myself into somewhere between an OPS+ of 120-140. But not an OPS+ of 161 with 54 home runs, or an OPS+ of 171. And I definitely don’t believe that he will finish in the top five in MVP voting, as he did for five straight years between 2003-2007.
Although just for the record, after seeing what these eyes have seen for a half decade, an MVP type year out of Ortiz won’t exactly shock me.
Simply put, if Ortiz is healthy, he will be a quality player. Which from the DH spot will mean that he must be a good hitter. But we must be patient with him, and everyone else for that matter. The games in April matter the same as the games in September, but what Ortiz does over 162 games matters most from his standpoint.
So if for some reason he sucks in April, he can make up for it in June or August…or whenever, and vice versa. As long as overall, Ortiz puts up some good numbers.