Okajima actually improved as 2008 progressed. His first half was solid, but the walks were way up. However, down the stretch Okajima regained his control, and was slightly better in the relief role. The one place where skepticism arises, is that hitters have definitely adjusted accoring to Oki's "Line Drive %." Okajima's "LD%" climbed up to 20% last season, where as, it was only 14% in 2007.
If Ortiz is terrible, I may worry a little, but I will ultimately think logically about the situation and rely on; the previous great years, the fact that Ortiz is 33, not 36. And of course, I will remember that just last season Jose Guillen was a truly great player for a single month, and that Ryan Howard was truly atrocious. A month is a rather short period of time in baseball life.
It took me some time to come around to believing this. Like many people, I saw that Wakefield could be hit...very, very hard on any given day. So I never fully appreciated Wake's ability. It was obvious that he wasn't an ace, for ace pitchers don't get rocked that often. But with my growing understanding of statistics, came my growing appreciation for Tim Wakefield.
So "effective" I thought summed up Wakefield well. Six straight seasons of "league-average" ERA+'s led me to use that word.
Look, I understand why having no Manny could cause concern. Manny, after all, has accomplished things on a baseball field that I have never seen before, especially from the right side of the plate. The 2007 postseason is a great example of just how incredible of a hitter Manny Ramirez was. His "domination" of good pitching nonetheless, was near remarkable, in baseball terms. Pitchers such as Fausto Carmona and CC Sabathia seemed over-matched, and ace pitchers are not usually over-matched like that. It was almost as if Manny was the one with the ball in his hands.
So I understand the hesitance to say that Jason Bay is the second coming of Manny. Because it wouldn't be true. He just isn't that good.
However, don't misinterpret that, for Jason Bay is actually very good.
There is always the possiblity that the Red Sox have taken into account Jacoby Ellsbury's "struggles" last season. Ellsbury wasn't a terrible player, but the expectations that the Boston fans sometimes put on these young Red Sox players can be unrealistic.
Ellsbury was almost a "Batting title or bust" type player after what he did in the 2007 season. I used a little exaggeration there, but seriously, Ellsbury was expected to accomplish big things in his first full season, it seemed. Anyway, if we were talking about spending money on a veteran SS out on the free agent market, that would be no better than average, then Lowrie would easily be the best candidate.
But we are speaking about a player in Lugo that is already under contract A player that will cost the Red Sox money regardless, so he must be in the equation.
I know ERA+ wasn't used much then, but his 1.74 ERA was well over an earned run better than the next guy on the list. And Pedro did all this in a hitters park! A place where routine flyballs hit to left field turned into doubles.
When arguing who the greatest pitcher ever was, one should include that Pedro Martinez was the best pitcher in baseball four times, not three. And there was a fifth time, too, where it wasn't all that far-fetched to say that Pedro was the greatest pitcher alive.
And sure, I was understanding that he was worthy of a Gold Glove. But his overall value was well above what I would have guessed. Coco was not the 48th best player in baseball at the time. But he may very well have had the 48th most valuable season that year. He could track down balls up the middle with the best of them, and that translated into a year that many overlooked his true value, or so it seemed.
See, in a perfect world, every team would have a General Manager/Front Office that could make good moves, while spending as little money as possible. In this world, the top-tier payrolls would have a distinct advantage. If every GM was skilled at their job, and there wasn't much difference between the minds that are within each organization, then the extra money that a club would have, would play an even more significant role.
But I have to add, that even as great as his stuff is, if he is as great in 2009 as in 2008, then I will be surprised too. I think he can be good, but great seems to be a reach. But then again, there is something that he does well, he does not allow hitters to make hard contact against him. And if hitters continue to not hit the ball hard, then, well, I like his chances But succeeding in consecutive seasons with a low BABIP will be difficult. So Daisuke will hopefully walk fewer batters, because the average on balls in play will probably be greater than it was in 2008. And with a higher average on balls in play, with the same amount of baserunners occupying the basepaths. It will result in more runs scored.
36 home runs surrendered (ridiculous), an increase in walks (74), and a 5.01 ERA (although the defense wasn't exactly helping too much that season), were all contributions to a year in which Josh Beckett wasn't exactly proud of (nor were we after giving up Hanley Ramirez AND watching Anibel Sanchez throw a "No-No"). But I firmly believe that an abundance of fastballs was also a contributing factor to his lack of success.