Month: January 2010

All-Aughts Team of the Decade SP3: Josh Beckett

Game 2 ALDS - Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels
As Theo Epstein exited Fenway Park under a gorilla suit, the Red Sox were busy trading away their best prospect, shortstop Hanley Ramirez, to the Florida Marlins for third baseman Mike Lowell (considered a throw-in that became much more) and starting pitcher Josh Beckett, an oft-injured 25-year old.

The hope was that Beckett could be the Sox's new ace, with Pedro Martinez off to New York. The first year in the American League was not kind to the fastball-happy Beckett, who served up 36 home runs en route to the club finishing in third place. Despite Beckett's struggles, the club moved to sign him to a three-year, $30 million extension ($12 million club option for 2010), which was a hometown discount.

In 2007, Beckett moved away from his fastball (going from using it 69 percent of the time to 63) and finished second in the Cy Young voting, leading Boston to a World Series championship. His 20-7 record along with a 3.27 ERA and second consecutive (and total, as well) season with at least 200 innings pitched along with Mike Lowell's fantastic season caused many to forget about Hanley Ramirez.

One remarkable thing to note in 2007 is that Beckett suddenly became a control artist, averaging a 1.8 BB/9, a mark he would repeat in 2008. In 2006, that number was 3.3, which wasn't even a career high and not out of line from 2004 (3.1) and 2005 (2.9.)

Minor League Prospect List

Westmoreland - CourtesyThe rankings are rolling in and the Red Sox are entering 2010 with their best two prospects having yet to play a game at Double-A yet. I'm speaking of outfielder Ryan Westmoreland and confirmed starting pitcher Casey Kelly. I want to look at what the rankings are telling us and how we should value these two. Baseball Prospectus and Minor League Ball have Westmoreland as the Red Sox number one prospect. John Sickels gives him a grade of B+ and gave the following comments.

Fireside Chats #70: Where Jagerbombs don’t help Paul with the ladies as much as steroids helped Big Mac

Join us as we talk about such exiting topics as, arbitration and the hall of fame and pine for actual baseball games again. If for nothing else, listen to this weeks show to hear Paul pull off a front runner for analogy of the year with regard to the Mark McGwire interview. Also, which "current" Red Sox would you consider potentially "Hall-worthy" by their career's end? All that and more on this episode of Fireside Chats after the jump.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade CF: Johnny Damon

Twins v Red Sox
Johnny Damon came to Boston for the tail-end of the previous regime, getting a taste for how unpopular the club was among players at the time. Damon's autobiography, Idiot: Beating "The Curse" and Enjoying the Game of Life, related that an unnamed Red Sox player told him he made a mistake signing with the team. That was back in 2002, when Damon led the American League with 11 triples, erasing the memories of Carl Everett from our mind. The following year, the tide began to turn for both Damon and the Red Sox, as both became fan favorites. In the offseason, Damon grew lazy and allowed his hair and beard to grow out, coming across as a "Caveman" and being referred to as Jesus.

Minor Moves and Big League Hopefuls

Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers.
In a flurry of moves late last week, the Sox signed seven players to minor league deals. For some, the moves will result in mid-season call-ups or a cup of coffee in September. For others, the moves are very curious from a career-advancement standpoint as many are blocked by what is already substantial organizational depth. Even so, injuries and circumstance will assuredly open the door for a few of these singees and spring training invites. For others, it will be a long season at Pawtucket. RP Brian Shouse: Another move that doesn’t make much sense for the player at hand, Shouse would have a much better shot at breaking camp in the bigs with some other team. Still, the signing is a great move for the Red Sox, as Shouse can be an excellent situational lefty when the time calls for it. In 2009, lefties batted a combined .224/.243/.373 against Shouse, with 14 Ks and just 1 BB in 67 at-bats.

Payroll Pressures

With arbitration cases kicking in, payroll comes to the forefront of team concerns this week. While the Red Sox only have 4 arbitration cases left to settle, we can start to look at the overall payroll concerns going into 2010 and beyond. 2010 is supposed to be our "bridge" year, but is 2011 really when the Red Sox completely reload? Cot's Baseball Contracts lists the Red Sox payroll commitments, and a handy spreadsheet breakdown for the next 4 years as well. Evan's article yesterday laid out some basic figures for the four arbitration eligible Red Sox. While his figures for Delcarman, Ramirez, and Hermida seem solid ($1M, $1.5M, $3M) I have more reservations about Papelbon, considering the "favor" he wants to achieve for his fellow closers, and think his case will invariably go all the way into arbitration, where he'll get close to $9M. I have a feeling he'll ask for at least $10M, especially after he thinks he should be getting Mariano Rivera-liek deals in free agency. Currently, the Red Sox payroll stands at $149M, taking into account all new contracts, leftover payments for former players (like Lugo) any options exercise upon contract termination (Wagner, Alex Gonzales) and monies received form other teams (via Seattle for Bill Hall).

Papelbon, three others file for arbitration

This year, four Red Sox are eligible for arbitration. The big name is closer Jonathan Papelbon while Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez (the original one) and Jeremy Hermida round out the other three. (Hideki Okajima recently avoided arbitration, signing for $2.75 million, a raise of $1 million from his 2009 salary.)

Measuring Defensive Metrics

Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers.
I don't want to use this as another debate about how good or bad Jacoby Ellsbury is or anything, but this is a chance to look at the different metrics and where they come from. I'm going to center on four major metrics and what they attempt to measure as best we know. First up is John Dewan's plus/minus measurement from The Fielding Bible. Only leader boards are available for free and the rest is in the yearly Fielding Bible. This has to be one of the most involved as each players ranking involves video scouts watching every play a player makes and grading him against his peers. The resulting plus or minus value is based on how many more or less plays he make than the rest at that position. This system has a less direct effect on scoring, but how to compare players defensively. Taking a look at 2008 you have Adrian Beltre as the best third basemen in baseball with a +32. On the other end you have Edwin Encarnacion who was a -21. This number is not a run value as I understand it though and more of a comparison tool. It intends to say that Beltre made 53 more plays defensively than Encarnacion in 2008. The plus/minus system plays into another Dewan system called DRS or Defensive Runs Saved. It takes the the plays that added or subtracted to their plus/minus and assign run values to them. This gain or loss of run values results in a total value based on expected runs. Let's see the explanation straight from John:

All-Aughts Team of the Decade bC: Doug Mirabelli

Twins v Red Sox
Dougie's going deep tonight! A popular meme about a day in the life of Doug Mirabelli (there were two such days, I can't find the other one) was passed around back when Mirabelli was a cult figure in Boston. It might be odd for some to think that Doug Mirabelli was a cult figure for Red Sox fans, but I can assure you... he was. Mirabelli was acquired as a response to Jason Varitek breaking his elbow on the since-removed on-deck circle in 2001. At that point, Mirabelli was 30 and quickly gained a reputation for being a defensive whiz with a cannon for an arm behind the plate... as well as launching bombs at the plate without batting gloves, adding a bit of intrigue in the process. In 141 at-bats for Boston that year, he hit. 270/.360/.518 with nine home runs. I remember attending the August 16, 2001 game in which Ichiro Suzuki and Mark McLemore were ruthlessly gunned out trying to steal by Mirabelli, and the crowd was in an uproar. We couldn't believe it. Mirabelli had a cannon.