Exploring the Matsuzaka injury

Recently we learned that Daisuke Matsuzaka admitted to hiding a leg injury that occurred in the World Baseball Classic from the Red Sox. Matsuzaka said the injury caused him to overwork his shoulder to maintain velocity and that by admitting to his injury, cause a limit in his training that would have made him not available to the Red sox in his expected full capacity. Matzusaka also claimed the injury was not so much a physical problem but more a struggle mentally to prepare for his starts and overcome the nagging pain he would be forced to endure.

But I couldn't use my lower body well, and I could not use my full body to generate the power. My fastball was not effective, therefore I lost effectiveness of my other pitches.

This definately can be seen in his first two starts, but looking at his full season there is less evidence that there was something different in his approach. The big numbers show a similar Matsuzaka in both season with a K/BB of 1.64 last year and a 1.80 in 2009. He was actually a bit better at avoiding walks, but a 4.55 BB/9 is still pretty bad. Let's look at his arm strength to see if there was any difference. His fastball dropped slightly from 91.8 to 91.0, but nothing to drastic and only his changeup also dropped more than 0.5 mph to match the fastball. Perhaps he was right that he was able to keep his speed up by relying on his shoulder strength, but we should be able to see some changes in his movement charts.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade RP4: Derek Lowe

During Derek Lowe's tenure with the Red Sox, he was a 21-game winner, 42-save closer and 5.42 ERA starter. Lowe was consistently inconsistent and gave birth to what we all refer to as the "Derek Lowe" face -- a face of pure failure. All Star Game Lowe was acquired along with Jason Varitek in the Heathcluff Slocumb heist of 1997. After making his major league debut for the Mariners and tossing 53 innings, Lowe saw 16 innings of relief work in Boston. In 1998, Lowe was a swingman, making 10 starts and relieving in 53 others. As 1999 rolled around, Lowe eventually was anointed the closer and finished the year with 15 saves.

Recapping Kotchman, Chapman in Cincinnati

Kotchman to Seattle With all the positive moves the Red Sox have made this off-season, it’s a bit curious that Casey Kotchman became the first player expendable in the wake of the Adrian Beltre acquisition. Following the trade, the party line claimed that Kotchman became obsolete - and expendable - with four starting-caliber corner infielders on the roster. While it is certainly true that the team does not need four such players to man two positions (Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Beltre, Mike Lowell, Kotchman), it seems as if the team has forgotten that they have been aggressively shopping Mike Lowell since November. Following a trade of Mike Lowell – whose occurrence is a near certainty – the team is likely to be without a quality reserve corner infielder. Sure, Jed Lowrie and Bill Hall will be able to man the position in the event of injury and off-days, but what kind of upgrade do they provide over Kotchman? In the event of a significant injury to Beltre or Youkilis, both Hall and Lowrie would be completely miscast as a full-time option. In addition, with Beltre missing 51 games this past season, entrusting the insurance policy to either option is a very dangerous proposition...

Views from the bridge

Theo Epstein revisited his "bridge" comment a few months back to the Herald on Saturday. After the myriad of conversations we've had here recently, I felt the timing of his bridge wrap-up after the past few (excellent) signings was quite poignant.

“What I meant was, we’ve been a good team,” Epstein said yesterday after the press conference to announce the signing of third baseman Adrian Beltre. “We’ve been to the playoffs six out of seven years, we’ve won 95 games six out of seven years, and I know we’re going to be good when projecting into the future. The building blocks are in place to have a really strong foundation going forward starting in a couple of years.”

All-Aughts Team of the Decade 1B: Kevin Youkilis

A pudgy 25-year old named Kevin Youkilis made his major league debut in 2004, having made waves a year earlier for being the posterchild for Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. In his first game on May 15 in Toronto, Youkilis cranked a home run for his first major league hit off Pat Hentgen. As he came to the bench after the home run, the Sox ignored him as if nothing had happened. Catching on to the hazing ritual, Youkilis grinned and high-fived the air, pretending people were there for him. It's one of the feel-good stories of the season the Sox would eventually break their curse in. Due to injury, Youkilis amassed 208 at-bats that season, hitting for a .780 OPS which remains a career low. The following year, he spent much of the year in Triple-A although he did see 79 at-bats in the bigs. 2006 is when Youkilis stepped in as a starter, moving over from his natural position of third base to first.

Lars Anderson looking like a younger Casey Kotchman

I think Casey Kotchman should be a warning to any long term success we might expect from Lars Anderson. This is also just a discussion of their offense as Kotchman has a much better glove. Kotchman was a much higher draftpick going in the first round of the 2001 draft while Anderson was an 18th round pick. So what is it that makes these two have anything in common? First is that they have excellent plate discipline. Even at the minor league level they both have between a half a walk to a full walk for every strikeout. Anderson strikes out quite a bit more, but he walks a lot more too. All things being equal Kotchman would probably have a better average, but their OBP would be close. An interesting comparison is how Baseball America viewed them. In 2005 BA ranked Kotchman #6 and had this quote from a scout. "He's such a good hitter and he's still developing. I think he'll easily hit 30-plus homers in the majors. As we have seen that power never came and now Kotchman is more of a 10-15 homer guy at a power position.

Red Sox need backup shortstop

With the signing of Adrian Beltre and impending acquisition of Bill Hall, it seems that the Sox only have one thing left to do: dump Mike Lowell to bring in a backup shortstop. Lowell is perhaps even more redundant with the acquisition of Hall, who can play third and has done so primarily for a while now. There are now four third basemen on the roster (Kevin Youkilis included). What the team lacks is a viable backup shortstop. While Hall can play every position but catcher competently, he hasn't tried his hand at short in three years -- and thus shouldn't be considered an option there. He figures to serve as the fifth outfielder and primary third base backup and likely first base as well. He also can appear at second base but is his position of least experience (assuming you sum all his outfield games). Assuming that the team dumps Mike Lowell (who deserves a better fate and I feel should have a nice season in 2010 but it is what it is, and I can't argue with the team's decision), who can they bring in?

Adaptation and working the market

Since Moneyball was published in 2003 there has been a clear misunderstanding of what the book meant. I'm sure much of this is by people who never read the book, but perhaps some who missed the message. The message that is spread and widely understood is that Billy Beane was a huge proponent of OBP and that that wins games. If you ask anyone at a baseball game or on a sports talk show what was the point of Moneyball 90% will say OBP. Of course that 90% will also say that Billy Beane wrote the book. So what was the point in a cliff notes version? Learn what the market has failed to value and use it to your advantage. As of the writing of the book OBP was a largely ignored stat and teams were viewing players like Adam Kennedy as quality players for a solid batting average. This made a market for Beane to attack and he did so effectively. The problem is teams adapted and not only followed his model with greater finances, but also stole his staff.

One $9 Million Question Answered, One More Arises

Adrian Beltre, The Player This off-season has had quite an emphasis on trusting higher-order statistical metrics as, surely, both Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre do not fit the conventional mold for key cogs on championship caliber teams. Two players whose values lie predominantly with their defensive production, 2010 will be a trial by fire for the front office’s new-fangled policy of relying on fielding. Sabermetricians worldwide rejoice at this move towards the mainstream (myself included). As a Red Sox fan, however, I find myself wishing some other team were the guinea pig. Which begs the question: what kind of player are the Red Sox getting with Adrian Beltre? A Move Within a Move Maybe that last point runs contrary to the whole business side of sports – that, because you pay these players so much, they should do whatever the hell you tell ‘em to do. He should be the good soldier, not reply, and go into camp as Beltre’s backup. If he whines about not playing, too bad! Go get a day job! Though, in reality, that’s not the way things work. Aging veterans who have earned their stripes always get traded - and this may very well be the last bastion of humanity left in the business side of sports...

Fireside Chats #69: Where we ring in 2010 in style

While I've been busy adding a daughter to his "bullpen" at home with the birth of my second daughter Julia (Julia Daloisio....initials of JD...hmmmm), the Red Sox have been busy putting the finishing touches on their 2010 roster. Join us as we look at the series of moves that Theo put together to ring in the new year capped off with the signing of Adrian Beltre yesterday. All that and more on this episode of Fireside Chats after the jump.