The early returns on SIERA

For those not following the sabermetric updates Baseball Prospectus has attempted to create a new pitching statistic that improves on all those before it. This new stat is called SIERA or Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average. This takes the work of Nate Silver who created QERA to attempt to fix the combined issues in FIP and xFIP. So far the sabermetric community has put in lots of work reviewing, but what are the early returns? Matt Schwartz and Eric Seidman are the main authors on this work and attempt to describe first why this new stat is needed. The biggest reason is that while FIP, xFIP and QERA are all very instructional they do have a problem. That problem lays in a potential weighting of the three factors pitchers control strike outs, walks and groundball rate. In this case QERA is the worst for that failing as stated here:

All-Aughts Team of the Decade GM: Theo Epstein

Was there any doubt? The Boy Wonder is clearly Boston's GM of the Decade, taking the job over officially for the 2003 season. 2000-2001 was the death throes of former Boy Wonder Dan Duquette, who was responsible for bringing Pedro Martinez to town, and ... that's about it. Duquette sometimes didn't understand how to properly construct a roster or interact with the media. In his defense, he did put together solid postseason-caliber teams and had a deft hand in picking players up off the scrap heap. (Bret Saberhagen, Troy O'Leary, etc.) 2002 was with Mike Port at the helm as interim GM although some have said that Epstein was the one running things behind the scenes. Whatever the case, Boston courted Oakland GM Billy Beane heavily following the 2002 season, and a deal was thought to be in place. The contract was a go. Oakland's compensation (Kevin Youkilis) was a go. And then... Beane got cold feet. California was home. He pulled out, and Boston was left without a GM.

Verducci effect uses more circumstantial evidence

I have always been critical of the "Verducci Effect" or "Year After Effect" as I have yet to see the study that proves its existence. Now that it's February again, Tom Verducci has released his top ten high-risk pitchers based on the "Verducci Eeffect". As I was reading the article I became a bit upset by his defensive nature and use of circumstantial evidence to prove his point. I am a scientist in drug discovery and if I ever used his "evidence" to prove the efficacy of a compound I would be laughed out of a job or selling Homeopathic medicine. So, what actually is the Verducci Effect? The general idea is a pitcher under the age of 25 who increases his number of innings by more than 30 from his highest total is at risk of injury in following years. On the surfacem the theory seems plausible; with proper evidence and data we could formulate a study to allow the theory to be critized and able to stand behind on its own merits. My first criticism is that Verducci allows the evidence to not just be injuries, which are already very common among pitchers under 25, but also uses decreased performance as a proof of the theory. It's even more maddening that he uses ERA to prove this decrease in skills. Being a reader of Fire Brand I'm sure you know ERA season by season is not a very accurate measure of a pitchers skill, as the eventual ERA value assigned per year isn't solely dependent upon the pitcher's performance. Numerous factors outside the pitcher's control have a great affect on ERA.

Wrapping Up the Offseason

Spring Training is only a day away, and it's been a busy offseason for the Red Sox in 2010. The team struggled in the playoffs last year after putting up another solid regular season; tweaks were made to sew up the loose ends on the team's defensive deficiencies. Another front line starter was brought into the fold. Is Lackey here to supplant Josh Beckett in 2011 and beyond, or simply be another high priced compliment to the rotation? With the Olympics currently underway, let's review what's happened this offseason, and see what moves the teams made deserved a spot on the podium. Third Base: Adrian Beltre replaces Mike Lowell While the Lowell trade was derailed by an injury the fan base is still scratching their heads over (was Lowell hiding it, was the organization?), the acquisition of Beltre signaled the end of Lowell's regular playing time. Arguably the most talented defensive third basemen in baseball, Beltre brings his slick glove to Fenway to provide the teams with the defensive wins they had lacked all last season. Even returning just to his 2008 level of offensive woudl make Beltre a 4 WAR player, a huge bonus for the Red Sox with minimal risk.

Interview at Mets Paradise

Last week I answered some questions for Scott Wallace at Mets Paradise. You can check them out today. There was some good questions about the roster and a few on front office and the farm system. Of course there was also the obligatory question about Jason Bay and why the Red Sox let him go. With the Mets looking like a .500 team this year I'm glad he didn't ask me for more thoughts on them.

Extending Victor Martinez

Victor Martinez has publicly stated he would like to extend his contract with the Boston Red Sox and perhaps even finish his career here. I don't doubt he would like to stay here, but the question we have to ask is how much will it cost to get it done. He would like to have something before the season starts. The first question is the length of a new deal. This will be his age 31 season and he would surely be looking for a four to five year deal. With his ability to get on base and solid power I don't see a problem with that length of deal, but we should immediately think how long can he last behind the plate.

Evan Brunell joining NESN.com

I have some very exciting news, which you've probably already gleaned from the headline. I'll be joining NESN.com to write New England sports, primarily during nights. I'm very excited about this opportunity and hope you guys will read me over there. There is a direct link to my articles here. (What does this mean for Fire Brand? I'll be moving to once a week on Fridays. Troy and Lee will step up to fill the void, and I'm honored to have such capable writers in place.) Be sure to bookmark both Fire Brand and NESN!

AL East Sleepers: Toronto Blue Jays

Well folks, this one’s about to get ugly. Not just this season, mind you, but for a few years – though, if Anthopoulos is as good as advertised, there might just be a way out of this mess. It’s too bad, really, as the makeup of this pitching staff makes this team one of the most interesting clubs in all of baseball. Too bad they exist in the gauntlet of the AL East. There’s no mistaking it - Toronto is clearly the runt of the AL East litter for the forseeable future. While they have a few good full-timers and a number of interesting arms in the rotation, there’s just not a lot to build on here, barring the awakening of a number of sleepers on this team – a number of sleepers. Either way, this team is in serious trouble for 2010 and beyond. Then again, when third place is all you can ever look forward to, does the disappointment really matter?

Davey Beisbol

David Ortiz' last two seasons have been considered disappointments, there's no way to spin his plummeting OPS numbers. 2008 and 2009 were Ortiz' worst seasons since his final days in Minnesota, when he started to look more like a "never-will", rather than a burgeoning talent. Interestingly enough, I found something in his baseball-reference page that made me do a double take. David Ortiz' Hall Of Fame Monitor is extremely close to the range of "likely" Hall Of Famers. Not what I expected. I never quite considered David Ortiz a Hall of Fame candidate. For as happy as I was for Jim Rice, undoubtedly one of my childhood baseball heroes, I was never convinced he was a Hall of Famer either(actually, I'd still pick Dewey over him). I personally tend of have very high Hall of Fame standards, especially when a body of work without much domination is propped up by "Fear" or some other random reason. When I saw Ortiz' HOF Monitor score was a 92 (likely HOFers are 100+), I decided I wanted to investigate this further and wanted a player with similar Hall of Fame credentials to use as a comparison. The perfect player? Don Mattingly.

Contibute to the Red Sox Annual

Randy Booth over at Over the Monster has decided to undertake the big quest to make his first Red Sox Annual. I have contributed some work to this and many other Red Sox bloggers/writers have done so as well. All content will be original work and I am looking forward to reading it. Randy has asked for some of the readers help as well. Head over to the site and if you have graphic design experience you could help design the annual. They also are looking for fan's to contribute their favorite moments in an essay format under 250 words. You should be able to read the Annual in March at some point and it will be a PDF format for easy reading.