10 questions of regression for 2010

With trucks heading to Florida yesterday it's a good time to look at the questions for what the Red Sox hope will happen in 2010. With breakouts and new levels of performance there is always the possibility of regression. That can also include getting better as you return to the mean. What are the top ten possible regressions for 2010? 10. Can Manny Delcarmen find the plate - While Manny never had great control there was an alarming rate of walks in 2009. He walked 5.13 batters every nine innings or more than a batter every two innings. We found the signs of arm problems here and I think that with health he should be better, but a better walk rate is required for him to be a solid contributor.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade Honorable Mention: Mike Lowell

Mike Lowell was the proud winner of the All-Aughts Team of the Decade honorable mention at 30 percent of the vote, and its easy to see why. After all, Lowell not only has provided above-average offensive seasons each year he wore the Boston uniform (and sans 2009, excellent fielding seasons) but his character is off the charts and he nabbed the 2007 World Series MVP award. Lowell came to Boston after being exiled from Florida following a year where he posted an obscene (in a bad way) .658 OPS, showing no ability to make contact and a lack of power. For the Red Sox to get ace Josh Beckett, Lowell was forced upon them. No one seriously thought Lowell would be worth his salt despite it being just one year. Lowell found Fenway Park to his liking in 2006 albeit on a team that collapsed late and missed the playoffs. His 47 doubles were a career high, and he set a career high the following year in a different category: RBI. That was the year of 2007, when Lowell stepped up amongst injury and attrition -- 31 games batting fourth, 17 fifth and 101 sixth -- and became a feared middle of the order hitter. His doubles sank to 37, but he popped 21 home runs and hit .324, the first and only time his batting average has been over .300 in a season.

Hope Springs Eternal

Right before spring training starts, the questions we've raised in the offseason taper off, and spring training battles slowly start to take shape. Major media outlets are trying to field any lagging fan questions, players without homes scramble for a job, or continue to pout and lament over their perceived value. One of the things I tend to do around this time of year is always go back to some of the reasons why I've worn this team like a red badge of courage for so long. In my short 31 years, I never suffered though the ultimate let down from the Impossible Dream, I never got to cheer the most famous fly ball ever to just stay fair, or got to give Bucky Dent a very special middle name.

Reasons to let Beckett reach free agency

There has been a lot of talk this offseason of how Josh Beckett will approach 2010 with John Lackey signed for the next five years. Will he be pissed or determined? We can't know, but while Curt Schilling is feeling free to share his opinion again I'll give my reason why he's wrong and Beckett will be a free agent after 2010. The first reason we already discussed a bit, but there are plenty of questions about Beckett's health. I discussed this on Fireside chat #68, but the central point is Beckett has injury history that can be very concerning. While many will say what about Lackey's history I also discussed that in the podcast. He has an injury that is less severe and from his velocity and movement looked better with rest. Beckett was able to top 200 IP for just the third time in his carer this year, but the last month was rough and might have been better served with a bit of rest. His back was a problem and could be seen in his lower velocity and some movement problems. This is no time to sign a pitcher and you should definitely wait to see how he does in 2010.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade Dishonorable Mention Vote

Last week, we put to a vote on Fire Brand who should win the honorable mention spot on the All-Aughts Team of the Decade. The winner of the poll, which looks to be Mike Lowell, will be officially added to the team later this week when we recap his accomplishments in Boston. Today, I bring to you the dishonorable mention candidates. No Team of the Decade roster is complete without recognizing those that made waves in Boston for all the wrong reasons. Below are five candidates, none of which are Manny Ramirez given he's already made the team. Please take your time and vote for the candidate you feel belongs on the roster, either at the end of this article or on the right sidebar, near the top. Ladies and gentlemen, it is my displeasure to present... well, click through and find out!

AL East Sleepers: Baltimore Orioles

Starting this season, the Orioles will be one of the more interesting teams in the division for what should be the better part of the decade. The top of the minors are awash with upper echelon pitching prospects (Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta) to go along with plenty of reinforcements in the low minors. The lineup card is stocked with building blocks that are either locked up long-term (Nick Markakis) or have just started their arbitration clock (Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold). While the 2010 season may not be the year of the Oriole, it will be a significant landmark in the progress of the club. The team is not expected to “compete” in the classical sense, in that they will still likely finish either fourth or fifth behind the Sox, Rays, and Yanks. Yet, the team could, with a couple of breaks in the right direction, finish with a .500 record – the first time Baltimore has done so since 1997. Now, on to the sleepers: C Matt Wieters: This one should come as no surprise. Coming into 2009, Wieters was at the top of nearly every meaningful prospect list known to man. Switch-hitting catchers with the plate discipline, power, AND defensive capabilities of a Matt Wieters come around once in a generation. Accordingly, he was expected to perform much better than he ultimately did, .288/.340/.412. Even the perennially underwhelming and modest PECOTA projections pegged Wieters to hit 30 home runs...

Super Advertising Sporting Event Squares

In honor of the Super Bo.. um, Big Game today (please don't sue me, Roger Goodell!), Firebrand is going Vegas today and presenting some prop bets for the upcoming season. Which ones would you be laying money on or avoiding? 10-1: Tim Wakefield opens the season in the starting rotation. Wakefield made his feeling about deserving a spot in the rotation known recently, feeling he's paid his dues over the past decade.

Remembering Nomar Garciaparra in Boston

One of the more interesting names in Red Sox history with an origin from his fathers first name turned backwards and his last name is a combination of his parents last names. He was not only an elite athlete, but with a 4.0 GPA in high school and majored in business management at Georgia Tech. He was then drafted 12th overall by the Boston Red Sox in 1994 with the 12th overall pick. After three years in the minors he made his first full season in 1997 with the Red Sox. He led the league in AB, hits and triples. He won the rookie of the year award and was voted 8th in the MVP award voting. His season would only be a taste of what was to coma as over the next 6 seasons he would total 40.6 WAR according to Sean Smith's WAR calculations. This amazing 7 year span even includes his forgettable 2001 season including the Sports Illustrated cover, a wrist injury and only 21 games played. That's how great he really was and comparing him to Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez he was right in the middle with Rodriguez totaling 54 WAR in his first seven full years and Jeter with 35.1. While in Boston he was often known for his first pitch swings and infield pop ups, but that never hurt his production. He was not much for taking walks with a career BB% of 6.6%, but much like Dustin Pedroia he could hit most anything around the plate. He only struck out 10% of the time on average.

Is Clay Buchholz’s change-up responsible for lefty struggles?

Clay Buchholz is poised to take another step forward this year as a full-time member of the Red Sox rotation. He spent much of the first half of 2009 dominating Triple-A competition, and finally got his shot when Tim Wakefield experienced injury problems most of the second half. His "emergence" wasn't much of a surprise despite his godawful 6.75 ERA in 15 starts and one relief appearance during 2008, as his Fielding Independent Pitching was 4.69 and xFIP (FIP with home runs normalized to park and league data) 4.28 over 76 innings. Those respective FIPs were 4.69 and 4.09, respectively, covering 92 innings in 2009 with a 4.21 ERA all told. An aspect to Buchholz's game I don't think has been made enough of, however, is his inability to pitch against left-handers. Okay, inability is a bit strong, so let's go clear deficiency compared to right-handed batters.

Projecting the Yankees number five pitcher

Joba Chamberlain finally got his full season to start and things didn't turn out as the Yankees had hoped. His splits crashed and he wasn't the same pitcher. At the same time Phil Hughes established himself in the bullpen after being unable to stay healthy in the starting role. In the minors Chamberlain had an elite strikeout rate and continued to show that in the majors as a reliever. Overall a pitcher will always have lower strikeout rate as a starter and you can see that in his career K/9 as a starter in the majors at 8.4, while 11.9 as a reliever. That number is still a great number, but something happened this year. His K/9 dropped to 7.61 and his walks rose as well. This has to be partly due to his loss in velocity going from 97 in 2007 to 95 in 2008. He then dropped to 92.5 this year as a full time starter. There is obviously some velocity drop being a starter to preserve his arm. I have the feeling this amount has some to do with his shoulder problems in 2008.