Fireside Chats #72: Where we contemplate signing a one day contract with ESPN and retiring on top

Paul and I break down the legacy of Nomar Garciaparra, the potential of a Smoltz/Glavine/Maddux like Big 3 in Boston, and David Ortiz' attitude this spring in this Spring Training edition of Fireside Chats. We also look at the 2010 Boston Red Sox outfield and contemplate the various projections of their 2010 performance at the plate in our continuing series. 2010 Outfielders: Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron, JD Drew, and Jeremy Hermida. As referenced in today's show, here's a link to the MLB GameDay BIP Location database so you can map hit balls from one park to another and laugh at Jason Bay at Citi Field like I did. All that and more on this episode of Fireside Chats.

Tim Wakefield returns to the bullpen

While Tim Wakefield continues to stand for a spot in the starting rotation as he continues to try for the wins record as a Red Sox pitcher. At this date the Red Sox are ready to give the five starter spots to Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka. That leaves Wakefield asking for a job that doesn't exist right now. It's always possible that an injury or other change opens a spot, but I want to suggest why Wakefield might be better served as a reliever. Since 1993 Wakefield has made 62 appearances as a reliever with an ERA of 3.75 in that role. While that sample size is fairly small there is plenty to see that is encouraging. The most obvious change is a spike in strikeouts, which occurs when most pitchers change from starter to reliever. His K/9 in the starter role has been 5.9, but in the reliever role he holds a 7.9. The benefits of a knuckle ball pitcher are a drop in BABIP, which he has a consistent rate of .275 as a starter and a reliever. This benefit will be beneficial as his K/BB was a poor 1.76 as a starter and a slightly above average 2.16 as a reliever. This helps him beat his FIP in both roles.

AL Central Sleepers

In a division packed about as tightly as a can be, the emergence or decline of a single player can mean the difference between a playoff berth and an early end to the season. With the AL Central race as wide open as any division in the MLB, each team will be counting on the contributions of every player on the roster – and praying for the breakout of their sleeper prospects. And, when it comes to those, there is certainly no shortage of potential breakout players. Cleveland Indians SP Justin Masterson: Though we could have gone with OF Matt LaPorta here, it just wouldn’t have been as fun as picking the home-grown talent. Everyone in the Boston metro-area familiar with Masterson – or “Monsterson,” as some like to call him – and his impeccable set of offerings. The 6-6, 250 lb behemoth was the centerpiece that brought Victor Martinez over the Sox, paired with stud reliever Nick Hagadone. A hefty price tag befitting of the elite catcher, Masterson now turns his sights toward the AL Central as the Indians’ number three starter...

Pawtucket Red Sox manager Torey Lovullo eager to get started

Over the years, the Boston Red Sox have established a track record of promoting from within the organization.

That wasn’t the case when it came time to name a new manager for the Pawtucket Red Sox, after the garrulous Ron Johnson was promoted to Boston as the Red Sox’ first base coach.

The Red Sox reached out to the Cleveland Indians and scooped up Torey Lovullo, who was with that organization for nine years.

"His communication ability, his ability to develop relationships with the players and his teaching ability are the three things we feel very strongly about," Boston’s director of player development Mike Hazen said while explaining the thought process that went into hiring Lovullo. "He’s a very good baseball man."

"I’ve known him for about 10 years. We feel very confident that Torey’s the right guy to develop our players and help them reach the next level."

Top Prospect Ryan Westmoreland to Undergo Surgery

Earlier today, the Red Sox front office released a statement reporting that top prospect Ryan Westmoreland will undergo surgery to correct a cavernous malformation. A cavernous malformation is a group of dilated blood vessels in the brain, often diagnosed following headaches in the patient. However, many people can have cavernous malformations without presenting symptoms.

Remarked General Manager Theo Epstein, "The entire Red Sox organization stands in support of Ryan as he courageously deals with this issue. Ryan is a remarkable kid and a talented player, and we understand that many will be concerned about his health. He is getting the best medical attention the world has to offer, and we will have more information soon. Until then -- out of respect for Ryan's privacy and at the request of the Westmoreland family -- we will not have any further comment."

Everyone here at FireBrand and all over Red Sox Nation is pulling for a speedy recovery for Ryan and we wish him the best. At the moment, there is no word as to when he will return to the field.

Can Jacoby Ellsbury add power to his game?

At NESN, I wrote an article theorizing if Jacoby Ellsbury could add power to his game.

I drew quick and dirty comparisons to Johnny Damon and Carl Crawford, arguing that Ellsbury can expect to see an uptick in power production in the future. I wanted to expound on this here.

Baseball is a game of evolution. The game that's being played on the field now, while under similar rules hearkening all the way back to the inception of the game, is drastically different.

I think the evolution of Johnny Damon puts things in proper perspective for Ellsbury. (Click 'Read More' or the headline to read the remainder of the article and leave a comment.)

Josh Beckett contract models

It's rumored that the Red Sox and Josh Beckett are in strong discussions on a new contract according to Gordon Edes at ESPN Boston. The target is the end of spring training to finalize something or weight until the offseason. I have made my opinion on Beckett's contract known at Yawkey Way Academy and came to a value of 4/$64, but this was before we saw the changes to the 2010 market and the addition of John Lackey. It's tough to say what Beckett will demand in these talks and how much injury language he will accept. The first point we must remember is that while Lackey came to Boston at 5/$82.5 he was a free agent and required top dollar. The Red Sox know that 2010 will include Beckett in the fold, but if Beckett wants long term security he might have to give up a few dollars. Another point is that a new contract would up his payment in 2010. He is currently set to be paid $12.5 million this year, but any extension would likely include a solid raise in the 2010 season.

This Thank You Is Huge

Our rivals/enemies/counterparts 210 miles to the South came out with their own bit of news on the heels of CC Sabathia's poor 2 inning performance today (who cares if it's spring stats, it's still fun to say!). With the contracts of future Hall of Famers Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera in their final year this season, there's been much talk about what kinds of contracts the Yankees should extend to two icons that have been with the franchise for close to 15 years. Let's take a snapshot of both players from the point they signed their 2001 contracts. Derek Jeter has averaged 18.9 million per year during his 10 year contract, reaching as high as 21 million this year. Since 2002, he's been worth 40.1 Wins Above Replacement, averaging about 132.2 million dollars of market value. During that same time period, Jeter has been paid 157 million dollars. While it's not the return on investment you should see from a player who never officially reached free agency, it's a testament to what Jeter has been able to accomplish over the years, as the odds normally say a large long term contract like this usually follow the path the Cubs are enduring with Soriano.

Is Tampa Bay pitching overrated?

While Tampa Bay has had plenty of named talent over the last few years from Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza and then David Price came along. This along with a top offense and elite talent has led to their recent success in the AL East. Perhaps overvalued is a bit harsh, but they have several pitching changes and again compared to their peers in the division have some flaws. Departing this year will be the presence of Kazmir at the top of the rotation, but that shouldn't be a bad thing. His walk rate was always high and with the drop in velocity it's likely the drop in strikeouts is going to stick around. He is surely not the ace of seasons before. That leaves James Shields as the team ace and that is a good start. He was the ninth most valuable pitcher in the AL last year based on pitching runs above replacement. There were some cracks in his season though as his walk rate climbed, but not an extreme amount and should regress in 2010.

AL West Sleepers

Buried in the West are many talented breakout candidates. Some of the more interesting in the league, many have been relegated to former prospect status, while others are just building a name for themselves. Anaheim Angels of California This team is a bit difficult to pinpoint as most of the players are already somewhat established. Though Joel Pineiro could fit in simply because he is, potentially, a one-year wonder, he’s still enough of a credible asset to disqualify himself as a sleeper. There are a couple, however, that deserve some serious notice. 3B Brandon Wood: Wood is probably best known for the annual merry-go-round he and the Angels play on – sending the prospect up, down, and around through the organization – never letting him stay in one place. Though he’s done precious little at the major league level to warrant a 25-man roster spot – or starting gig, no less – he’s been so good in the upper minors for so long that at some point you just have to let the guy get his hacks in...