I’ve taken the enigma that is John Lackey as my pet project this year and looked at everything from new pitches to catchers as possible reasons for struggling in 2010.
Nothing seems to give a full answer and the only solid reasoning this year was trouble with left handed batters and nibbling as seen in his Pitch f/x. June started to change that as his K/BB was 2.67 that month and hopefully a sign of better things.
July has not been as god so far, but with only 4 starts this month so far it’s tough to judge. His K/BB this month is back down to 1.80. More good news is his K/9 has steadily risen since the start of June with a 5.45 in June and a 6.0 in July so far.
His velocity has been climbing ever so slightly this year and could be a sign of good things, but a concern for the future. Lackey has missed the start of two straight seasons and now has not been himself in his first season in Boston. Perhaps a look into his off-season training to make sure he’s doing the best he can and to stay healthy for the length of his Sox deal.
Something to keep in mind is Lackey has already amassed 2.0 WAR while struggling this season. Even at this level he should total 4.0 WAR this season. That is around $18 million in free agent value. While a positive value he is still not producing like we expected. If he turns into the Lackey of 2007-2009 he should total 4.5-5 WAR and be a $20-22 million dollar value.
It appears the Sox are going to finish July finally seeing the starting rotation they looked to in April. This should allow the team to concentrate on finding solutions in the bullpen and short term solutions in the field.