Month: July 2010

Prospective Additions and the BoSox’ AL East Title Chances

April 13, 2010 Los Angeles, CA..Arizona's Chris Snyder in action during the Major League Baseball game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. The Dodgers defeated the Diamondbacks, 9-5..Josh Thompson/CSM.
There’s no doubt the Sox recent injuries have done a number on the club’s chances of winning the AL East. So we thought it would be interesting to uncover how bleak -- or rosy -- the those chances have become. Prior to the slew of injuries that befell Victor Martinez, Dustin Pedroia, and Jason Varitek, Baseball Prospectus had the Sox at about a 99-win team with an 853-702 scoring differential. That team, with the current standings, would have won the division about 38 percent of the time -- a solid second best to the Yankees' expected title rate of 45 percent. The Devil Rays take the cake about 18 percent of the time while the Blue Jays and Orioles are almost nowhere to be seen. But that was a different team. Injuries have decimated this club and with it, their chances at the division. So, we sought to quantify this question and see just how often the new lineup would win the AL East. We’ll spare you the nitty-gritty details, but the essentials are this: based on the expected run production of the new lineup, we simulated 10,000 “seasons,” the end result being an AL East championship probability. Further, we plugged in some of the club’s rumored trade targets and internal options to measure their effect on the team. Playing time estimates are rough estimates and are subject to change. Production estimates are based on Fangraphs.com’s CHONE projections. Below are the results.

Varitek and Delcarmen Down, Possible Trade Candidates

May 16, 2010: Boston Red Sox's Jason Varitek (33) during the MLB baseball game between the Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. Tigers defeated the Red Sox 5-1.
The injury carousel keeps turning – and, unfortunately, keeps landing on the Red Sox’ spot. While Jason Varitek was placed on the disabled list Thursday with a broken foot, Manny Delcarmen was also added on Friday with a strained right forearm. Reliever Robert Manuel was recalled to replace Delcarmen while catcher Kevin Cash was acquired from the Astros in return for infielder Angel Sanchez. Second baseman Niuman Romero was called up from Pawtucket to assume Sanchez’ vacated roster spot. With all the injuries and new names flying around, this seems like the perfect opportunity to stress the importance of offseason minor league acquisitions. While these replacement level signings are often glossed over in the newspapers and on the transactions lists, these players are signed for precisely this reason: to provide insurance against the unlikely event of a nightmare scenario playing out -- much like the one the Sox are currently in.

7/3 Online Seats Game Thread: Getting to Guthrie

Jon Lester and Jeremy Guthrie have both factored into twelve decisions so far this season, earning a (9-3) and (3-9) record, respectively. Tonight, Lester will look to continue the Boston Red Sox's successful record against the struggling Orioles.

The Offense Has Carried The Club And Now It Is the Rotation’s Turn

June 27, 2010 - San Francisco, CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES - epa02227074 Boston Red Sox's Andrian Beltre (R) is greeted by teammate Kevin Youkilis after hitting a solo home run off a pitch by San Francisco Giants' Sergio Romo during the ninth inning at AT&T Park in San Francisco, California, USA, 27 June 2010. The Red Sox defeated the Giants 5-1.
As the Red Sox world turns, it is reflecting more and more like a general hospital. On a daily basis another player is heading to the disabled list. The Olde Towne Team needs to keep their collective heads above water until the starters get back on the diamond. The good play since April allows the Red Sox the opportunity to stay in the race even with numerous key players in the training room.

The Red Sox offense is mostly responsible for the May and June resurgence. They lead the American League in runs scored, are second in on-base percentage and first in slugging percentage. The incredible turnaround of David Ortiz and the unconscious Adrian Beltre at the plate have been two that have performed beyond expectations.

Varitek hits the DL

Um, ouch.

Jason Varitek hits the disabled list and will be out for six weeks. This means the next nine games require Kevin Cash and Gustavo Molina behind the dish.

Oh, ye injury gods. Have you no mercy?