Following the Sox’ September end to the 2010 season…
Free Agent Watch: Relievers
With the Boston Red Sox controlling the 2011 season of all five starters plus seven of nine position players, the club would seem to be in great standing for the upcoming off-season — depending on your opinion of the team’s underlying talent.
Nevertheless, the contractual stability of the team’s regulars, excluding Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre, would seem to put the club in good position when wading into the underwhelming free agent pool.
Adding to the advantage, the club’s anticipated need of reliable relief pitching is one area where the club could make significant gains as middle relief contains many underappreciated and undervalued bargains, including the likes of Rafael Soriano, J.J. Putz, Scott Downs, and Jon Rauch. Just to name a few.
To avoid doubling up on the regular coverage, here are a few quality names that no one is talking about.
Octavio Dotel, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Dotel changed hands a number of times in 2010, starting in Pittsburgh before being dealt to L.A. and ultimately landing in the Rockies.
With Colorado holding a $4.5 million club option for 2011, it would seem that the Rox would have no qualms cutting loose the Type-B free agent. As he stands to earn approximately $2.5 – $3.5 million on free agency, he could provide considerable value if his reputation for being erratic and unreliable knocks down that figure.
… which is exactly where Dotel’s value lies. Though he does have some drawbacks, including struggles against lefties and huge fly ball tendencies, he remains one of the elite strikeout options in all of baseball, registering an expected K/9 of 10.8 this season — which led to an expected ERA of 3.841.
Even his perceived “wildness” is suspect, as his 52.5 zone percentage is up there with the better pitchers in the league.
Perhaps the best thing about Dotel is his slightly inflated ERA, which should disqualify him from pricing much higher than $3 million. In years past, the relievers who have cashed in tend to have benefitted from low ERAs, even if those numbers are artificially suppressed. See: John Grabow (2 yr, $7.5 mil; 3.36 ERA, 4.95 xFIP), Brandon Lyon (3 yr, $15 mil; 2.86 ERA, 4.24 xFIP), Rafael Betancourt (2 yr, $7.55 mil; 2.73 ERA, 3.89 xFIP).
Put him on the watch list at this point, as his likely price tag of around $3.0 million would put him right along the line of mercenary and asset. However, if his cost manages to retreat by about $0.5 million, he could prove to be a bargain.
Matt Guerrier, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Guerrier may be a little out of place on this list, considering the fact that he signed with Minnesota for a lofty $3.15 million to avoid arbitration last season. To put it bluntly, Guerrier didn’t deserve that kind of contract, especially since he had almost no hope of maintaining his 2.36 ERA from ‘09. And that 2010 salary may be exactly what prices him out of any realistic range for his talents.
However, Guerrier is a bit of a wild card in that his skill set (low Ks, low BBs) may ultimately leave him undervalued by many suitors, leaving him to sign for below market value. Unfortunately, the matter is complicated by his 3.17 ERA in ’10, which may lead a team like Houston to grossly overpay.
Nonetheless, Guerrier will represent a nice addition to whomever eventually signs him. Even without the strikeouts, his expected ERA was an adequate 3.834 — good for any bullpen.
Here’s to hoping enough teams are hesitant to drop his price tag to $2.5-$3.0 million. Other than that, it may be best to stay away.
Jesse Crain, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Crain came into 2010 signed to a third year arbitration tag of $2 million, considerably less than many similar relievers he would outperform, including Detroit’s Bobby Seay, Tampa’s Grant Balfour, and his teammate, Guerrier.
After struggling for the better part of two seasons for the Twins, Crain made great strides in his control this season, coming together in a big way just in time for a free agency pay raise.
With a great slider, which he throws about 40 percent of the time, and a hard 94-95 mph heater, Crain has the stuff that scouts look for. In addition, his excellent secondary stuff should allow for an improvement in his fastball for 2011, which could produce added dividends.
Though Crain’s cost may go up a bit due to his sexy 3.04 ERA, he may be able to hide in the sea of relievers who pulled off that feat in 2010, allowing him to earn just a modest increase in salary in the upcoming year. With an expected ERA of 3.845, a real chance of major improvement, and a possible mid $2.0 million salary, Crain has a chance to be the bargain reliever of the free agent class.
The biggest factor working in the Red Sox’ favor this off-season is the number of potentially available options — which works two-fold.
On the one hand, the large number of options will canabilize each other, driving down the price of each option. On the other, the numerous available relievers will allow a couple quality options to fall through the cracks. When it comes to relievers, it can be very difficult to project their final price tag, as hurlers with similar value can ultimately earn very different salaries (i.e. Darren Oliver, $3.5 mil, and Jose Contreras, $1.5 mil).
This offseason, expect the Sox to be patient in their pursuit of relievers, possibly gaining one as part of a trade while waiting for the action in the market to settle down. Either way, expect them to come in with a revamped and strengthened corps when April arrives.