The Sox have landed their offseason prize. Adrian Gonzalez not only adds tremendous power and AVG/OBP to the middle of the lineup, but he plays pretty darn good defense at first. With A-Gone at first, the Sox have the luxury to take advantage of Kevin Youkilis‘s versatility by moving him across the diamond to third. These two moves mean that the Sox no longer have to worry about re-signing Adrian Beltre, which I personally believe is a tremendous plus. However, there are other needs to address behind the dish and out in the pen.
When Beltre does sign elsewhere, the Sox will receive draft picks as compensation, so they can freely pursue Type-A free agents. Also, the Sox will hold of on officially announcing Adrian Gonzalez’s contract extension extension until the 2011 baseball season officially starts, which will save them luxury tax money. Gonzalez will make only $6.3M in 2011, so the Sox have some room to spend on short-term deals.
We’ll start by looking at some options that could fit behind the dish and give Jarrod Saltalamacchia more time to get acclimated to the Sox system at Triple-A.
Russell Martin was recently non-tendered by the Dodgers because they couldn’t come to an agreement on a 2011 salary. Martin made $5.05M in 2010 and likely refused to take a pay cut. While 2010 was his worst season, Martin still posted a .347 OBP and was worth 2.1 WAR. He maintained a good line drive rate (20.6 percent) and struck out less than 20 percent of the time, but his power output has been drab for the last two seasons (.082 ISO from 2009 to 2010). Having thrown out 39 percent of base runners in 2010, Martin showed that he still has good defensive value. In my opinion, he is the best available catcher.
The Angels have a lot of catchers and have let teams know that Mike Napoli is on the trading block. Napoli is not very good defensively, which is why he fell out of favor with Mike Scioscia, but he can certainly hit the long-ball. His 26 home runs in 2010 were a career high and he could push 30 bombs if he were ever awarded 500 or more at-bats in a season. He’d be under team control for three more years.
Miguel Olivo is another free agent option, but he might be looking at the John Buck deal (3yrs/$18M) and think he deserves the same or better. To give Olivo a long-term deal would be risky and, to be honest, he doesn’t really fit into the Sox lineup. He has had one big power year (23 home runs in 2009), but he hasn’t hit more than 16 homers in any other season. Olivo also doesn’t contribute much in the AVG/OBP departments. He is a .246 career hitter with a very poor .283 career OBP, a career contact rate under 70 percent (very bad) and he has not posted a chase rate under 40 percent since 2006 (very, very bad). Defensively, Olivo can hold his own, but at age 33 in 2011, giving him more than a one-year deal would be risky.
All-in-all, there are not a ton of good options out there for the Sox to upgrade at catcher. It may come down to a tug-of-war with the Yankees for Russell Martin’s services. If that doesn’t work out, Exploring a trade for Mike Napoli might be another decent option.
The bullpen was a dark cloud hanging over the 2010 season. While some relievers have already been signed, and signed to fairly large contracts, there are still some intriguing options out there through free agency.
When healthy, Koji Uehara was awesome out of the pen in 2010. He posted a 11.25 K/9 and 1.02 BB/9 in 44 innings. Other than being an extreme fly-ball pitcher, Uehara doesn’t have any big warning signs. He doesn’t throw hard, but gets plenty of swings and misses with plus-movement and plus-command on all his pitches. I’d be curious of his contract demands — fellow Japanese import, Hisanori Takahashi, got 2yrs/$8M from the Angels. Both pitchers will be 36 in 2011. Going from Uehara’s movement and command style in the seventh to Daniel Bard’s fireball, slider from hell style in the eighth would make for a tremendous setup tandem.
Brian Fuentes has been linked to the Sox. I explored his possible role with the Sox back in October. He would have to accept being relegated to a setup role and would also serve as a left-handed specialist at times.
Matt Guerrier has also received some linkage to the Sox, but Fire Brand does not recommend him, especially if he is using Joquin Benoit‘s deal (3yrs/$16.5M) as a comp.
Coming off of his worst season, Chad Qualls may not be able to ask for much in contract talks, but he has a little upside. Last season, Qualls fell victim to am insanely high .399 BABIP and lost some of the command that he had consistently shown in the past. He could be a very nice sixth/seventh inning reliever capable of posting an ERA around the 3.50-3.75 range if his command can bounce back. Qualls has posted a career 57.6 percent ground ball rate, which would play brilliantly with the Sox infield defense.
Kerry Wood posted great ERA numbers once he joined the Yankees last summer, but there is more than a little risk in his game. While Wood can rack up some strikeouts, he has posted back-to-back seasons of poor walk rates. He may be an OK option at the right price, but he’d be the type of reliever that would drive Sox fans up the wall at times and pitch lights out at other times.
When the White Sox decided to non-tender closer Bobby Jenks, he became an attractive option to a number of teams. In early November, I suggested trying to buy low on Jenks. Now, no trade would be necessary. His 2010 numbers look poor on the surface, but his peripheral stats suggest he could have a very nice bounce-back in 2011.
Jon Rauch did a heck of a job taking over for the injured Joe Nathan in 2010, but lost his closers job when the Twins acquired Matt Capps from the Nationals. Rauch is not a big strikeout pitcher, but could be worth a look on a one-year deal due to his good command.
Scott Downs may be a Type-A free agent, but he has posted some pretty impressive numbers over the last two years. Combining a decent strikeout rate, good command and the ability to keep the ball on the ground and in the ballpark. The Sox have shown keen interest since day one of free agency and giving up a first round pick may not be as bad as expected as Type-A free agents Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre will bring back picks.
Sometimes it pays to be a little creative and take low cost risks. Rich Harden has had a heck of a time trying to get his career back on track. At this point, he is not capable of excelling as a starting pitcher, but he could reestablish his career with a move to the pen. In the pen, Harden could manage his workload and add a few MPH back to his fastball. His slider/cutter is still a great swing-and-miss pitch, generating a whiff about 11 percent of the time as a starter in 2010. That rate should increase as a reliever. Signing Harden would be a big risk, of course, and it is yet to be seen what he is looking for both in terms of contract and role for 2011.
As you can see, there are some nice reliever options still out there and the Sox have the luxury of not having to plug any of them into a eighth or ninth inning role. Any reliever(s) the Sox would sign would add much needed depth. In a perfect world, I would love to see the Sox sign both Koji Uehara and Scott Downs to two-year deals (maybe three years for Downs). If not Downs, Brian Fuentes on a one-year deal would work just fine. Bobby Jenks may be looking around for a closers role, but if he can’t find one and wants to be a part of a winning bullpen, he would be a nice fit as well.
Imagine a bullpen that has Koji Uehara and Scott Downs in the sixth/seventh, Bard in the eighth and Papelbon in the ninth. Now that’s depth! And that would be a huge improvement over the 2010 team, an improvement that could push the Sox over the top in 2011.