Though the free agent market is officially open, let’s not forget about the trade possibilities out there. As stated about a million times since the end of the regular season, the Red Sox need to improve their bullpen. There is one reliever out there in particular I’d like the Sox make a run at, as it could be a great buy low opportunity.
In 2010, Bobby Jenks collected 27 saves for the White Sox. He also suffered from lingering back pain late in the season and finished with a 4.44 ERA. The thing is, he pitched much better than that.
Jenks had a 3.39 K/BB rate last season, which included a very good 10.42 K/9 and good 3.08 BB/9. However, it seems that Jenks ran into a ton of bad luck. His BABIP against was a monstrous .368 and he managed to strand only 64.4 percent of his baserunners. His career averages for both categories are much better (.306 BABIP against and 73.5 percent strand rate). It’s not as if Jenks got hammered by the line drive, though is line drive rate against was a career high and slightly above the league average. In fact, Jenks did a great job of inducing ground balls (58.3 percent ground ball rate) and keeping the ball in the ballpark (only 3 home runs allowed in 52.2 innings). The White Sox had the fifth worst defensive rating according to UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), which helps explain some of Jenks’ bad luck.
The difference between Jenks’ ERA and FIP was the second largest gap among major league relievers with at least 40 innings pitched in 2010.
Name K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP Difference
Bobby Jenks 10.42 3.08 4.44 2.59 -1.85
After what happened late in the year for the White Sox in 2010, south side fans have just about had enough for Jenks and management seems to feel the same. On top of everything else, Jenks made $7.5MM in 2010 and is arbitration eligible in 2011. Despite his 4.44 ERA, there is a chance Jenks could receive a slight raise in 2011. The White Sox would love to avoid that at all cost given that they already have about $80MM committed to payroll in 2011 — their 2010 payroll was $103,080MM — with John Danks and Carlos Quentin in line to receive raises through arbitration. The White Sox have already picked up Matt Thornton’s $3MM option and they are going shopping for a big bat this offseason. Needless to say, getting rid of Jenks and his big contract would make more free agent signings possible.
This is where the Red Sox have a chance to jump in and buy low on Jenks, who posted 2.59 FIP in 2010.
Because of the team-friendly contracts management signed with Dustin Pedroia and Jon Lester, there is plenty of room for the Sox to sign a big name free agent (Crawford or Werth) and still absorb the $7-plus million that Jenks would have coming his way in 2011.
What would theoretically make this all work is the combination of Jenks’ 4.44 ERA in 2010, back-to-back seasons of time missed with minor injuries and the White Sox need to move his salary. At most it would seem to take nothing more than a mid-tier prospect and maybe cash considerations to land Jenks from an organization motivated to move him.
If the Red Sox were to acquire Jenks, he would move into a seventh inning role, lowering his responsibility and overall expectations, while giving the pen that much more depth.
Bill James has projected Jenks for a 3.12 ERA, 8.82 K/9 and 3.12 BB/9 in 2011. If the Sox could buy low and get that type of production, it would be worth every arbitration penny spent.