With injuries gouging a hole in the Sox rotation, replacements have needed to step up. For the most part, the replacements have done an admirable job. Andrew Miller, Tim Wakefield and Alfredo Aceves have kept the Sox afloat, actually exceeding expectations. Miller, in particular, has caught the attention of Red Sox fans and media alike. Having been a low-risk acquisition this past offseason, he was viewed as a big-time project, especially after posting a 5.89 ERA with a 1.4 K/BB rate in three seasons with the Marlins. However, he’s now 2-0 in three starts with a 3.06 ERA , causing many to believe he has become the real deal.
I’ve gone on record as saying that I’m not a firm believer in Miller’s ability to sustain long-term success. There are a few reasons for that: One is a 1.8 K/BB rate (below league average) and the fact that he hasn’t shown many signs of above average control or strikeout ability. While I have to point out that Miller seems to have improved his control tremendously, as it stands after 17.2 innings, his 3.6 BB/9 is still slightly worse than league average and his 4.8 BB/9 while at tripe-A doesn’t make it seem like an improvement is coming. Miller has struck out 6.6 per nine in his three starts, which is also about a league average rate, but he hasn’t missed many bats (15 percent whiff rate) and has allowed more hits (19) than innings pitched. Which leads me to my second big worry…
Miller has faced some pretty poor offensive teams in his first three starts. His first start came against the Padres, who are tied for the second worst team wOBA in baseball (.288) and the highest team strikeout rate in baseball. Then, he faced the Pirates, who have the sixth lowest team wOBA in baseball (.300). In his last start, he faced the Astros, who have a .311 team wOBA, which is the 11th lowest in baseball. They also have the second lowest team walk rate in baseball.
Tonight, Miller faces the Orioles, his first American League opponent of the season. The O’s have a .322 team wOBA, which is slightly better than average. They also have the tenth highest team SLG and are fifth in the AL with 95 team home runs. They have lost eight of their last nine games, but they have hit a league leading 24 home runs in the last 14 days.
What Andrew Miller has done for the Sox so far has been fantastic. Now matter what my opinion — or anyone else’s opinion is — about what he will do the rest of the way, we cannot discredit the fact that he has helped the Sox win every game that he has started so far. In spring training, if someone told you that Andrew Miller would post a 3.06 ERA and that the Sox would win all three of his starts in 2011, I have a feeling that just about any of us would be satisfied with that contribution alone. Now, the Sox need Miller to stay productive for a bit longer with Lester and Buchholz on the DL. Can he do it? Tonight will tell us a lot, as he faces his biggest test to-date.