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I've had the privilege of attending three major homecomings at Fenway Park. The first was Pedro Martinez's, in 2006 as a member of the Mets; he was enthusiastically welcomed, but his start that game foreshadowed the injury woes that have plagued him through the latter part of his career. The second was Nomar Garciaparra, just last season as a member of the A's; that appearance was a harbinger of the reconciliation that was to come during the 2009-2010 offseason. Then, Friday, I was in attendance at Manny Ramirez's return, his first since the 2008 trade that finally ended the ongoing soap opera that was his Boston career. The reception he received at Fenway was mixed, and a perfect metaphor for his Boston career, which featured tremendous highs alongside controversy, character assassination, and the bitterest of Boston goodbyes.

This will be my third 'numbers' article, focusing on long-time former Sox players - from Pedro to Nomar and now to Manny. This, in many ways, is the hardest to write, as Manny is the hardest of those players to encapsulate. I would argue that alongside Pedro and Nomar, no single player is more responsible for the current popularity and success of the Red Sox as Manny Ramirez, and yet very few former players are as reviled and hated. A stunning talent, Manny was just as often a frustrating presence, never quite allowing the kind of iconic treatment other Sox players have received. His relationship with his teammates, the media, and the town itself was often contentious, and his dedication and loyalty were often questionable, but his production was always astounding. His career in Boston highlights a division among fans - would we rather see a successful but unlikeable player, or a mediocre but loyal one? How much do things like morality, kindness, and selflessness matter in modern sports, and to what degree are we viewing Manny's career through those lenses?

Is it Time to Get Rid of Interleague Play?

This will be the fourteenth season of interleague play in the Major Leagues. Perhaps the most controversial of Bud Selig's innovations, interleague has had a good run with some wonderful moments, but it has also produced some head-scratching matchups, highlighted the gap in talent between the American and National Leagues, and introduced a level of imbalance that is, at least in my view, antithetical to the spirit of baseball. Despite the revenue boost it has given some clubs, it may be time to end - or at least reduce - the interleague experiment.

Wakefield Uber Alles

Last night, Tim Wakefield accomplished something no other pitcher ever has: he recorded his 8,329th out as a member of the Boston Red Sox. For those who are less than mathematically inclined (like myself), that's 2,776 and 1/3 innings, one out more than Roger Clemens recorded with a B on his cap. It's a useful moment with which to reflect on the astonishing career of Tim Wakefield, and on what he has given this team both on the field and off. The longest tenured member of the Red Sox (Wake arrived in Boston as a free agent during the first month of the 1995 season, two years before anyone had heard of Nomar Garciaparra), Wakefield has been as selfless a player as has ever worn a Sox uniform. That he can arrive at this record is a testament to his loyalty, selflessness, and love of this game.

Epstein’s Draft Hits… and Misses

With the 2010 Amateur Draft just around the corner (Monday June 7 through Wednesday, June 9), I wanted to spend this week's column looking back at the previous best and worst picks of the Theo Epstein era, an era in which the strength of the minor league system has been both a top priority for the team and an area of almost unparalleled success.

With seven drafts under their belts, this front office has taken the team from a roster of two homegrown regulars (Nomar Garciaparra and Trot Nixon) in 2003 to eight in 2010. Among them are a perennial Cy Young contender, a powerhouse corner infielder, a league champion base stealer, an elite closer, a man with a 100 mile an hour fastball, and an MVP. In addition, there is a new crop of talent maturing in the minors, with some players nearing the point where they will make a Major League contribution. So, not bad for a few years. After the jump, we'll take a look at the best and worst draft picks of the past seven years.

Theo’s Third

With the team sitting a game below .500 in the second half of May (the latest they've been there since the dark September of 2001), it's almost time to admit the obvious: this is likely not a playoff team.

Yes, I know it's still technically early. I know that many teams have executed comebacks far greater than this one would be, and I know that the Sox are not playing at the level of quality they should be, and the one at which they still might down the line. However, they're chasing two frighteningly talented teams, and a nine game swing will be very tough to overcome.

I also know that just two weeks ago, I wrote a long article discussing reasons for optimism. I'm still optimistic - I believe this team is far better than what we've seen so far, and I think it will wind up being the best third place team the league has seen in some time. But they'll still likely be a third place team. The question, then, becomes this: how will we view this season two years from now? Will it be an aberration? A signal of the end of an era? Or will we see it as the halting first steps of a new contending club? To answer that question, it's worth looking back at the most recent disappointing teams of the Theo/Trio era, and what they each signaled.

Numbers

For whatever reason, I've been having a large number of conversations about retired numbers lately. From students trying to get me on a tangent by asking who they all are to discussions about whether Pedro Martinez' return on Opening Day was a play to get 45 on the facade, the frequency of the topic has gotten me thinking about what the next number retired would be. So, instead of the usual recriminations or wishful thoughts on the 2010 campaign, I wanted to run down the top 5 candidates in order of what I think is their likelihood of retirement. I don't expect everyone to agree, but it should spark some interesting conversation.

The current list stands at 1, 4, 6, 8, 9, 14, and 27 (along with Jackie Robinson's 42). Bobby Doerr, Joe Cronin, Johnny Pesky, Carl Yastrzemski, Ted Williams, Jim Rice and Carlton Fisk -- as good a rundown of Red Sox greats as you can get. Hall of Famers all, aside from Pesky, who represents a special case. The restrictions on retirement have been eased by current ownership, and the rules are now a bit fuzzy; it used to be that a player had to begin and finish a Hall of Fame career with the Sox. That seems to no longer be the case, despite a few acrobatic moves to get Fisk there. So, with that in mind, here is my list of five, along with their numbers, chances and qualifications.

The Case For Optimism

Monday night, we got a glimpse of what this team could look like with things going right. Clay Buchholz put together another solid outing, further cementing himself as this season’s most reliable starter, and the offense put on a show — especially during a long 6th inning that saw seven Sox runners cross the plate. The question is this: was what we saw last night something we can expect to see again, or was it simply a reminder of how frustrating this season has become?

I was a huge fan of this particular iteration of the club going into 2010 — probably the most excited I’ve been about a Sox team since 2007. Unsurprisingly, the abysmal start has dampened my optimism pretty significantly, but it hasn’t yet killed it. I still think that by the end of the season we’ll see a team that more closely resembles the one that decimated the Angels than the one that lay down in front of the Orioles. Here’s why.

A Little Perspective

As of this writing Tuesday evening, the 2010 Red Sox stand 20 games into their season. With a record of 9-11, the Red Sox sit in fourth place in the AL East, and this is already the latest they've been under .500 since 1996 (a season in which they finished with a respectable but not quality 85-77 record, and third place in the division). They rank 11th in the majors in runs scored (which is a somewhat surprising standing, all things considered) and an almost unthinkable 28th in the majors in runs allowed -- only the Reds and Pirates have been worse (quick aside: the Pirates have managed to be outscored this season by an astonishing 85 runs, which comes out to an average of over 4 runs per game... so it could be worse). By all accounts, this season has begun worse than any in the current era of Red Sox teams.

How much weight, though, can we put on 20 games? Can a team that has been as hopelessly bad as the Red Sox have been, over this long a stretch, possibly compete in the division or for the championship? To find out, I decided to look back at some of the strongest Red Sox teams in recent memory (and one incredibly strong non-Red Sox team) and compare this 20 game stretch to the worst ones I could find. Now, before I go into the details, I know that I'm cherry-picking below. I also know that I can't equate the first 20 games of a season with a similar stretch later in the year in terms of their emotional impact. However, 20 games are 20 games in the standings, and these first 20 count just as much as the last 20 or a stretch of games in July and August. So knowing that this is all kinds of imperfect but that it's also at least worth thinking about, let's proceed.

Looking For Runs In All The Wrong Places

It's been a rough couple of weeks, folks. We've all heard it, we've all said it, we've all felt it. There's been enough negative energy in this town lately to give Vigo from Ghostbusters II a sugar high. However, if you sat there tonight watching grown millionaires crowd around Darnell McDonald like they were ten years old again and your cynicism, pessimism and negativity didn't melt away, you have no soul.

Tonight, it was the song of the backups -- the team was lifted up and carried by players no one has on a fantasy team, and eventually it was those players who gave the Red Sox their most inspiring win of the young season (with, admittedly, stunningly little competition). McDonald, Jeremy Hermida and Josh Reddick drove in six of the team's seven runs, and two of them weren't even on the roster this morning.

Lester’s Early Struggles

For the second straight start this year, Jon Lester has looked quite unlike the pitcher we've come to rely on over the past two seasons. As Troy pointed out in yesterday's quick post, Lester's control has been fairly poor to this point, though his velocity has been essentially what we expected. It's concerning, to be sure, but it's also not very far out of line with what we've seen from Lester in the past, and it's worth taking a look at Lester's previous Aprils and Mays to get a sense of whether this is a trend or an outlier.

First, though, a quick aside. I was in the stands for Lester's no-hitter in May of 2008, and what's interesting about that start is less the run of dominance he began afterward, and more the shakiness he'd experienced before it. At the time, Lester was not an ace - he was a feel-good story of a prospect, coming off cancer and a win in the deciding game of 2004. So when he began mowing them down the night of May 19, the feeling was more one of a young pitcher finally finding his stride than a pitcher settling into a season. In April of 2008, Lester posted an opponent's line of .260/.361/.425 and a K/BB ratio of a mere 0.96; he would finish that season at a much more impressive .256/.320/.368 with a K/BB of 2.30 - over twice as strong as in April. He also began going deeper into games, striking out more batters, and keeping the ball in the park at a better rate. What's especially interesting here is that the rest of his components - everything from BABIP to LD/GB/FB percentages - remained the same, with only his walk rate and the actual batting results really experiencing any kind of change.