The Red Sox Weren’t a Playoff Team Without Adrian Gonzalez — And That’s Why They Pulled the Trigger

The Sox finally got their man. Or did they? Much like Captain Ahab’s pursuit of Moby Dick, Theo Epstein landed his own white whale, albeit at the cost of the farm system’s prized jewels and without a long-term contract It was an expensive move, no doubt about it, but lying beyond the Boston-San Diego “who-wins?” question is a far more interesting angle: what does the timing of the deal says about the front office’s expectations of the 2011 Boston Red Sox? Needless to say, the early months of the off-season hadn’t gone well for the Red Sox. The departure of Victor Martinez and the expected flight of Adrian Beltre were leaving the 2011 squad far behind the curve. These two holes, combined with the club’s fragility had made the club very vulnerable to missing the playoffs in lieu of some major changes. Adding a marquee bat at one of those positions would go a long way toward making the team an AL East contender in 2011 -- and it’s possible the front office thought Adrian Gonzalez was the last and only way to make a winner out of the sinking lineup. How can you tell? Because in baseball, much like in life, necessity is everything. Yet no one seemed to be paying attention. On the surface, a vast majority of the New England and national press seem satisfied in writing off the trade as the Sox “finally getting their man.” In some ways, it’s true. Boston has coveted Gonzalez for years and they have been on the verge of acquiring the slugger multiple times. It's an easy conclusion to reach and one that no one would question. But it's also a vast oversimplification of the team's predicament and the organization's need for the slugger. In a vacuum, the timing of the deal was very poor. The free agent market was far from settling, they could have pursued a far less expensive stop gap at the winter meetings, and Gonzalez was hitting the free agent market in a year anyway. In essence, the Sox decided to forego any meaningful pursuit of a free agent corner infielder; instead, opting to relinquish three of their best prospects for one year of Adrian Gonzalez . That’s it. One year. Please save the comments about him maybe signing a long-term deal before the season begins. It’s stlll a one-year trade because Gonzalez would have hit free agency at the end of the year, signing a long-term deal then instead of now. With the Yankees all but out of the running with Mark Teixeira at first base, the Sox would have been the odds-on favorites to ink the slugger, going through Hell and high water to ensure they got their man -- meanwhile allowing them to keep Kelly, Rizzo, Fuentes, and our PTBNL. Is that a 100 percent guarantee Gonzalez would be a Red Sox in 2012? Of course not. Is there a chance he would have signed elsewhere or have been dealt to another team at the deadline? Absolutely. But that doesn’t matter in this organization. Unless the Red Sox absolutely have to, they don't make moves like this. And unless they were desperate now, they wouldn't have sacrificed their future. In the event Gonzalez would be unavailable, the would have moved on to Prince Fielder, another stop gap, or another trade. This team always has options... … because Theo isn’t stupid and because “Adrian Gonzalez,” to this organization, is just a name. And because the value he brings to the table can be found elsewhere -- so long as they aren't desperate for an infusion of talent. This Boston GM doesn’t irrationally covet players because he considers them to be “his guys.” If you know this organization well and are familiar with how it operates, you’d know that such a Gonzalez-in-Boston guarantee carries very little weight. You’d know that the Boston front office -- of any team in the league -- is proficient at envisioning creative, fluid solutions to its personnel problems. No Adrian Gonzalez would have been merely a speed bump, as was Alex Rodriguez in 2004. They would have adjusted and moved on like they have so many times. While in the past we’ve bemoaned plenty of Epstein’s moves in this web space, he deserves tremendous credit for having created an organizational philosophy geared toward the objective valuation of players while making calculated business decisions. Moving forward, what does it mean when a team historically stingy with prospects makes a blockbuster deal for one-year of a player? It means they feel the move was absolutely necessary -- which, in turn, means they feel the team wouldn’t have been able to compete without his presence. With the previous state of the lineup, and the poor alternatives on free agency, I couldn’t agree more with their assessment. Aside from a blockbuster trade, the team didn’t have many ways of making up for their losses on offense. Jayson Werth flew off the board earlier today, and plenty of teams are all-in on Carl Craword. And even then, the team already has three very capable outfielders. Werth’s five WAR would be whittled down to below a two-and-a-half gain with JD Drew’s 2.6 in right. The same goes for Crawford and Ellsbury and co. in left. A splash just isn’t as big when there’s no water in the pool. So where else could the team have turned? Catcher is a historically thin position, and no one is trading Joe Mauer or Buster Posey. First base is mostly barren of short-term free agent candidates, especially with Lance Berkman and Adam Dunn off the board. Third base is even more so. Had Aubrey Huff been on the market, things may have looked very different, especially considering he signed a two-year deal. Huff for two-years would have allowed the club to shift him to DH next season, putting both Fielder and Gonzalez in play on free agency. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case and the Red Sox were stuck with precious few options if they hoped make a big upgrade. Fortunately, the San Diego route was still available and the front office wasn’t afraid to push their chips into the pot. So, is it the right move? Well, that comes down to your own personal philosophy. If you think it’s necessary for the team to be a contender most every season, then you’d certainly be a fan of this trade. If you advocate for aggressive draft spending, bonus points to you. Gonzalez' six-seven WAR will be a huge benefit to the team, even when adjusting for Kevin Youkilis' move back across the diamond. There was no bigger splash the team could have made and it's hard envisioning an otherwise competitive Boston team without some fancy maneuvering, a little bit of luck, and a lot of health. If you would rather save for the future, find stop gaps and look for creative solutions, maybe you’d rather the club hold onto what they have. Just don't expect the team to do a whole lot in 2011. In the end, it’s difficult to argue against the trade. With the off season shaping up the way it has, the Sox were firing with a six-shooter that had maybe one or two bullets left -- and forced into a corner, they opted to take one of the last shots they had. Fortunately, that blast took down a big bull. And you can rest assured that Adrian Gonzalez’ presence will be felt across the American League come April -- which may also be the deciding factor in this city's 2011 playoff push.

Luis Exposito’s Place as Catcher of the Future

Having been added to the Red Sox 40-man roster on Friday, catcher Luis Exposito’s career prospects earned a significant boost as he climbs up the minor league ladder in pursuit of a full-time Major League job.

Sox Add Lefty Andrew Miller to Stockpile

On Friday, the Red Sox acquired former top prospect LHP Andrew Miler from the Marlins for reliever Dustin Richardson. Mere hours later, the Marlins completed their organizational purge of the Miguel Cabrera trade, letting loose Cameron Maybin to the San Diego Padres, who was also acquired along with Miller. Miller is the epitome of a retread prospect, having been drafted sixth overall in the 2006 June Draft by the Detroit Tigers. For those who don’t quite remember, Miller was, for a time, considered the top left-hander in the draft and in contention for the first overall selection. Kansas City must have seen something in him, as he fell out of the top slot to sixth -- which Detroit considered to be a miracle. For whatever reason, Miller was never able to get his career going -- managing just a 5.84 ERA and 4.70 FIP 294.1 IP out of his considerable talent. Injuries can certainly take part of the blame, as Miller has yet to complete a full season without a disabled list stint. But it’s difficult to blame stagnation on injuries alone. While it likely played a role, it’s anyone’s guess as to exactly what happened. It’s unfortunate, but sometimes guys just lose it. Think Craig Hansen, former closer-of-the-future who fizzled out after losing his slider in the minors. Scouts and doctors alike have posited theories from the size of the baseball’s stitches to sleep disorders. The search is ongoing. The same seems to be happening to Miller. No one has a good answer to what -- if anything -- ails him. All that anyone can say is he has lost some 3-4 mph on his fastball and slider since draft day, can’t seem to find the strike zone, and needs to develop a changeup to hit the next level. A spike in fastball velocity and a new changeup would do wonders for Miller’s career prospects. A changeup would give him a formidable combo to throw against righties while a jump in velocity would help his arsenal altogether. But those are big ifs -- ifs that have any number of obstacles standing in the way. Whatever the case, Miller’s role with the 2011 Red Sox seems likely to be confined to low-leverage bullpen duty -- if he cracks the roster at all. Out of options, he’ll have to show something in Spring Training to even make the team as a LOOGY, as he’s found a way to struggle against lefties despite having a slider as his main breaking ball. Not what the Tigers were expecting when they drafted the lefty in 2006. Now, 4+ years later, Miller finds himself in his third organization and a significantly faded star attached to his name. That’s not to say Red Sox fans can’t get excited about his acquisition. Only, they should temper their expectations. At 25, he can still make something of himself, but anything more than low-leverage, cannon fodder arm in 2011 is gravy.

Free Agent Watch: OF Jayson Werth

As the hot stove heats up, we turn our sights to free agent outfielder Jayson Werth, who could add a spark to both the 2011 lineup and rumor mill should he sign with Boston… Of the top position players available on this year’s free agent market, Phillies outfielder Jayson Werth is arguably the second best hitter, combining a patient approach with the requisite power to man a corner outfield slot for a playoff-caliber team. Werth makes decent contact, though he is held back by a relative inability to make adequate contact with pitches in the zone. Of any one plate discipline indicator, zone contact percentage has the most affect on strikeout rates and Werth’s zone contact rate of 82.2 ranked 11^th worst of 149 qualified batters in 2010 -- right behind teammate and strikeout extraordinaire Ryan Howard (10^th; 82.0). This tendency will keep his strikeout rate right around 25 percent, which tends to be the line where strikeouts turn from annoying to detrimental. A rate in the high 20s is damaging to most all, while a rate in the 30s is universally unrecoverable except for elite-level power and line drive hitters. At this point, strikeout rates begin to overwhelm a hitter’s batting average, taking OBP and OPS down with it. Luckily, Werth lies just below these landmarks, even if he is unlikely to approach .300 again like he did in 2010. Still, a batting average of around .270-.280 is more than adequate, while his .370 OBP and high .800s OPS will bring home the bacon. While his low zone contact percentage is something to keep an eye on, it won’t prevent Werth from being a star for the Red Sox. Of more concern is his age in what will likely be a four or five year deal -- and therefore the threat of decline in the latter years of his contract. Turning 32 in May of next season, Werth is all but guaranteed to be signed through his age-35 season, with a very real chance of being 36 should he sign a five-year deal. While Werth’s decline should be slowed by his excellent athleticism, perhaps one area of concern is his height -- and therefore the length of his arms. As ESPN’s Keith Law pointed out in his most recent article, Werth is unique in that he likes pitches on the inside half despite being a lanky 6-foot-5. For a hitter that earns his paycheck on the inner part of the plate, Werth is a candidate for accelerated decline as his bat speed slows. Since his long arms necessitate excellent bat speed to catch up to inside fastballs, any loss of said bat speed could accelerate his decline. There’s a reason why 5-foot-9 Matt Stairs hit six home runs at age 42, while 6-foot-8 Richie Sexson hasn’t hit one since he was 33. Long arms take longer to get through the hitting zone and are therefore more vulnerable to good fastballs. In Werth’s defense, however, he has shown the ability to hit to the opposite field, which will aid him later in his career. Tall, all-pull hitters aren’t a good bet to age well, so it’s a good thing Werth can go to right field when he needs to. Admittedly, we’re being a bit nitpicky -- and it may be a bit unfair to spend so much time discussing the drawbacks of such a talented player. But we would be remiss not to point out the outfielder’s flaws, especially one whose prime years are coming to a close. He really does a lot well. He fits the bill for a middle of the order Red Sox’ bat -- a good hitter, with a patient approach and plenty of power. He’s a good athlete with speed who can ably man a corner outfield position. He’s selective at the plate, swinging at around 40 percent of pitches he sees, while being somewhat aggressive -- as evidenced by his 21.8 percent O-Swing rate. At the end of the day, he’s a tremendous hitter who would be a welcome asset to the Red Sox lineup. Ideally, the Sox would be able to add Werth via a four-year deal -- getting two or three excellent years while hoping for the best in the final season of his contract. Expect the Sox to go hard after Werth, but all the while leaving one foot out the door depending on the availability of Carl Crawford. As good as Werth is, he’s not at Crawford’s elite level, ceding about 1-2 WAR in any given year. Still, what Werth gives up in raw value he’ll get back in flexibility, as it’s more difficult to find a right fielder than a left fielder. If the Sox find a way to sign Crawford to left field this offseason, they may find there is no adequate right field option on free agency after 2011 when J.D. Drew departs. Left field is, historically, the easier position to fill due to easier defensive responsibilities. Any outfielder can be shifted to left, while right takes a cannon of an arm. Bottom line is, if the Sox sign Crawford, they get the better, younger player, while leaving open the chance of not having an adequate right fielder in 2012. If the Sox sign Werth, they go with a less-talented (but still very good) option, but one whom allows them to go after any outfielder next offseason. It’s a nice bit of flexibility that any Bill Belichick supporter would certainly enjoy. Still, perhaps the most interesting component of a Jayson Werth signing -- or Carl Crawford, for that matter – is how it would shape the Sox’ 2011 outfield situation, Jacoby Ellsbury’s status with the 2011 team, and thus, the organization’s entire 2010-11 off-season. The signing of either one would give the Sox four starting caliber outfielders (Werth/Crawford, Drew, Mike Cameron, and Jacoby Ellsbury) for three starting positions -- a veritable logjam confounded with huge contracts. While some would (and are currently) advocate for the trade of Ellsbury, the smart money would be to just keep Ellsbury as a fourth outfielder. It couldn’t make more sense. 1) While Ellsbury and Cameron would vulture one another’s playing time in center, both are terribly injury-prone and require one another as a mutual insurance policy. 2) Drew and Cameron both enter free agency following 2011, meaning that the Sox, if they traded Ellsbury, would be left with just Werth entering 2012. 3) Despite a lost 2010, Ellsbury remains extremely talented, albeit a work in progress. Short of receiving a huge prospect haul (which was made unlikely by his injury-plagued 2010), the club would be best served seeing if Jacoby could recapture his prospect status with a full 2011. A fourth reason: it would give writers, Boston fans, WEEI, the Sports Hub, and every media outlet an endless supply of ammunition for their daily talk. Further compounding the situation, what would the team do with an emergent Darnell McDonald, a cheap solution as fourth outfielder? But I digress. Though the club would have an expensive logjam in the outfield, and has more pressing needs at catcher and third base, don’t feel guilty in rooting hard for the acquisition of Jayson Werth. An exceptional player, he’ll be worth the $16-17 million per year that he should eventually receive. However, as Werth will be virtually inseperable from Carl Crawford this offseason, keep your fingers crossed for Crawford, but don’t be disappointed with Werth as an excellent Plan B.

Free Agent Spotlight: SP Zack Greinke

With San Fran taking a commanding 3-1 series lead over Texas, the rumor mill heats up as the remaining 28 teams focus on 2011… At first glance, Greinke seems like a tough nut to crack. He was stellar in 2008, posting a 3.47 ERA in his first season back from an anxiety disorder that cost him much of 2006 and 2007. He followed that up with a brilliant encore performance in ’09, finishing the year with a 2.16 ERA, 9.50 K/9 rate and 4.75 K/BB ratio. The sky was the limit… until his 2010 curtain call proved to be a major disappointment, as his ERA skyrocketed two full runs to 4.17, while his K/9 went south nearly as far to 7.40 K/9. For the Royals, Greinke’s disappointing 2010 put him on the fast track out the door from Kansas City. As his salary is set to nearly double next year to $13.5 million, the rumor mill has already begun churning out trade scenarios -- opinions that should only pick up steam at the conclusion of the World Series. But as the public speculates on Greinke’s possible landing place come April, perhaps the more important question is what version of the Royals’ ace will be the one that takes the mound next season: the Cy Young Award winner of ’09 or the solid innings-eater from 2010? While the answer follows the somewhat predictable sabermetric mantra of “somewhere in between,” the unfortunate fact is that Greinke leans rather heavily toward his 2010 line than ’09. An excellent talent, yes, but simply not the Cy Young-level starter of yesteryear. And the fact is, he never was of that caliber. There were two great upsets that produced Greinke’s otherworldly 2009 campaign. One was an artificially suppressed ERA. At 2.16, that’s no surprise. The other was his inflated strikeout rate, which, at 9.50, was substantially higher than the expected 7.93 K/9 rate that his plate discipline indicators suggested. Accounting for a drop in strikeouts, a rise in the HR/FB rate, and some regression in his ERA, Greinke would be expected to turn in a 3.88 ERA. A coveted asset, but a far cry from a Cy Young candidate. 2010 was much the same his underlying 2009 campaign, though a rise in his contact rate dropped his strikeouts even further, resulting in an expected ERA of 4.15. So where is the disconnect between the numbers and the perception? On the one hand, Greinke’s stellar 2009 inflated expectations to an unrealistic level. Anyone not named Koufax, Johnson, or Gibson would have no hope of sustaining that level of production -- and certainly not in the (post?) steroid era. On the other, Greinke was miscast as the classic strikeout power pitcher he portrayed in ’09. His contact rates have never been low enough to sustain a K-rate anywhere above the high 7.0’s and low 8.0’s per nine. He’s a control pitcher with good swing-and-miss stuff -- a Roy Halladay without the ground balls or a lesser Dan Haren. The bottom line for Greinke -- and the organization that trades for him -- is that the pitcher cannot be viewed as a potential ace. He’s a talented workhorse who, in his better seasons (’08 and ’09), will be a legitimate #1 but, in his worse years (‘10), will be a #3. He isn’t a Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, or Tim Lincecum who can put a team on his shoulders and carry them into the post season. That’s not to say he isn’t worth the price of admission. Rather, he’s an extremely intriguing asset under control for two seasons at a very favorable price. At 5-6 WAR per season, he’ll far and away exceed the monetary cost of his contract. The real question is the level of prospects he will command -- and whether or not he’ll waive his no-trade clause, especially to a high-pressure market like Boston. As for fit, the Red Sox just aren’t in a position to add another expensive starting pitcher without first finding a new home for one of their expensive veterans. Though Greinke’s cost makes him a better fit than Cliff Lee, the presence of Daisuke and Lackey make the hurler’s acquisition exceedingly risky without a sound exit strategy -- and who would realistically take on a contract the likes of those two? While the Boston media may clamor for an upgrade in the rotation (and rightfully so), it just doesn’t seem terribly likely without some fancy maneuvering by Theo and company. Sure, the landscape could change in the upcoming months. But, like we recommended with Lee, don’t put any money on it. 

Free Agent Spotlight: SP Cliff Lee

With the rumor-mill beginning to heat up on the impending 2011 off-season, we turn our sights on free-agent-to-be Cliff Lee, who has been tied to the Red Sox in recent days… Since his 22-win breakout season in 2008, Lee has consistently ranked among the top pitchers in the MLB. And though he has achieved higher marks in the BBWAA stats in past years, 2010 may have been his best yet. Sporting an off-the-charts 0.76 BB/9 and 10:1 BB:K ratio, Lee has looked every bit the ace baseball fans have come to expect. Perhaps the greatest thing about Cliff Lee is his approach: pound the zone all game, every game. His stellar 56.6 zone percentage and 69.8 zone percentage are at the core of his success, leading to his miniscule walk rate. Though there is little in the Pitch FX annals to use as precedent, it is perfectly reasonable to believe that Lee can keep up this trend for as long as he wishes. Since command is his overarching skill, and he doesn’t rely on terrific velocity or a high K-rate, his skill set does seem vulnerable to the typical age-related decline of decreased velocity and lost strikeouts. His contact rate has never been particularly good -- below average, even -- so even if he were to lose some of his raw stuff, he wouldn’t necessarily lose his effectiveness. Taking his 2010 contact rates as a baseline (72.0 percent O-Contact, 88.4 Z-Contact, 84.1 Contact percentage), even if his overall contact rate shot through the roof to near 90 percent, he still wouldn’t lose more than about three-tenths of a run from his ERA. When considering that a 90-percent contact percentage would rank near the worst in the league, Lee seems to be about as fail-proof as any Major League pitcher around. So long as he can pound the zone, he should remain effective. That’s a nice, replicable recipe for success. There’s just one catch though. Given a closer look, Lee doesn’t seem to be the perennial Cy Young contender he’s portrayed these past three seasons. Rather, he looks more like an excellent #2 starter on a playoff-caliber team -- contributing quality starts on a regular clip, but with a 3.50-3.60 ERA instead of a 3.20-3.30. Not that there’s anything wrong with this type of pitcher. In fact, he’s quite the catch. It’s just a bit unlikely that he’ll continue registering HR/FB rates of around 6.0 while overshooting his K/9 rate by about a batter per nine frames. His ~6.0 HR/FB rate should rise a bit in the coming seasons, while his K/9 rate should fall back below 7.00 in due time. Given these adjustments, his 2010 line translates to approximately a 3.57 ERA. Good. Great, even. But not a Cy Young contender with the likes of Felix Hernandez, Jon Lester, and Jered Weaver in the hunt. As for the Sox’ prospects of signing Lee, the club should not tread lightly. With Lester, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and John Lackey locked in, and Clay Buchholz improving by leaps and bounds, there doesn’t seem to be any room for another starter -- even one with Lee’s tremendous talent. Given the organization’s enormous financial commitment to those first four starters, the front office would have to either cut Buchholz from the rotation or trade one of the veterans. Given their price tags, the former seems far more likely. Unfortunately, the Sox could be doing more damage than good, as Buchholz seems primed to take that next leap toward the top of the rotation. His 2011 should prove that last year was no fluke. Nonetheless, the Red Sox should never hesitate when given the chance to improve the club with a talent like Lee’s. They just need to be sure they have a reliable exit strategy and/or trade partner ready should they do so. In the end, a major push for Cliff Lee doesn’t seem all that likely… or prudent. Don’t root for his acquisition unless the Sox can be assured of moving Daisuke or Lackey. Translation: don’t count on it.

Free Agent Spotlight: Catcher John Buck

With incumbent catcher Victor Martinez at risk of fleeing Boston via free agency, Toronto backstop John Buck has begun drawing mention as a potential replacement. And in this weak free agent market, it should come as no surprise -- even for an incomplete one-year wonder like Buck. By most standards, John Buck’s game is fairly simple to describe: His primary tool is power. He is a liability behind the plate. He lacks any semblanceof plate discipline and contact hitting ability, contributing little to an offense other than launching balls into the fences. With Buck, what you see is what you get: low batting averages, few walks, good power. Not much else. In a lineup like Boston’s, he would likely fit in around 7 or 8. Perhaps the real question is whether or not the team should buy into Buck’s career year in 2010. After having wallowed in mediocrity with the Royals for six seasons, where he posted career high in WAR and OPS in 2007 at 1.2 and .738, respectively, Buck finally fulfilled some of the potential scouts saw in him. Upping the ante in 2010, he registered a 2.9 WAR and .802 OPS, largely on the strength of career-highs in home runs (20), OPS (.802), and batting average (.281). Unfortunately, his paltry .314 OBP was a new high-water mark as well, exhibiting his poor command of the strike zone. And that command is about as poor as it gets, as his career .301 OBP can attest. Though he was never terribly disciplined at any point in his career, his O-Swing percentage shot through the roof this past season to 40.2 percent -- culminating an alarming 15 percent increase in the last two years. Unfortunately, those increases did not coincide with any other improvements in his plate approach. Oftentimes, a player who exhibits a large increase in their O-Swing rate will show an improvement in O-Contact as well, a result of choosing better pitches to swing at. Buck realized no such gains, continuing to whiff at large scores of pitches with his porous bat. The numbers say it all, as the rest of his indiactors went largely unchanged, including a 71.1 contact percentage. Nevertheless, such flaws, though frustrating, are perfectly acceptable and quite common when discussing catchers. There is no flawless catcher in the MLB, and nearly all have some major drawback. Mike Napoli would find a way to whiff at a beach ball. Victor Martinez can’t play defense. Joe Mauer is tragically injury prone. John Buck? He has no sense of the strike zone and, even in a career year, he is far from a complete player. But at catcher, he doesn’t need to be. If he can find a happy-medium between 2010 and his better days with the Royals, he’s a worthwhile addition. Though he’s more of a second-division starter than befitting a championship-caliber team, he can hold his own as a patchwork solution for a team as esteemed as the Red Sox. As many consider Buck to be the second-best option available on the free agent market, his availability underscores Victor Martinez’ increasing value. With Buck as a possible Plan B, the importance of the Martinez negotiations goes way up. Though Buck would probably be nothing more than a bridge, there is no doubt that Boston fans would cringe at the thought of another “bridge year” so soon after 2010’s disappointment. If VMart asks for too many years, or if Theo decides he’s blown too many free agent contracts in recent years (i.e. John Lackey, Julio Lugo, Daisuke Matsuzaka, et al) to make another splash, Sox fans should get ready for the potential of a John Buck signing. It won’t be pretty, but there are far worse options the Sox could be stuck with.

Free Agent Watch: Relievers

Following the Sox’ September end to the 2010 season… Free Agent Watch: Relievers With the Boston Red Sox controlling the 2011 season of all five starters plus seven of nine position players, the club would seem to be in great standing for the upcoming off-season -- depending on your opinion of the team’s underlying talent. Nevertheless, the contractual stability of the team’s regulars, excluding Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre, would seem to put the club in good position when wading into the underwhelming free agent pool. Adding to the advantage, the club’s anticipated need of reliable relief pitching is one area where the club could make significant gains as middle relief contains many underappreciated and undervalued bargains, including the likes of Rafael Soriano, J.J. Putz, Scott Downs, and Jon Rauch. Just to name a few. To avoid doubling up on the regular coverage, here are a few quality names that no one is talking about. Octavio Dotel, RHP, Colorado Rockies Dotel changed hands a number of times in 2010, starting in Pittsburgh before being dealt to L.A. and ultimately landing in the Rockies. With Colorado holding a $4.5 million club option for 2011, it would seem that the Rox would have no qualms cutting loose the Type-B free agent. As he stands to earn approximately $2.5 - $3.5 million on free agency, he could provide considerable value if his reputation for being erratic and unreliable knocks down that figure. … which is exactly where Dotel’s value lies. Though he does have some drawbacks, including struggles against lefties and huge fly ball tendencies, he remains one of the elite strikeout options in all of baseball, registering an expected K/9 of 10.8 this season -- which led to an expected ERA of 3.841. Even his perceived “wildness” is suspect, as his 52.5 zone percentage is up there with the better pitchers in the league. Perhaps the best thing about Dotel is his slightly inflated ERA, which should disqualify him from pricing much higher than $3 million. In years past, the relievers who have cashed in tend to have benefitted from low ERAs, even if those numbers are artificially suppressed. See: John Grabow (2 yr, $7.5 mil; 3.36 ERA, 4.95 xFIP), Brandon Lyon (3 yr, $15 mil; 2.86 ERA, 4.24 xFIP), Rafael Betancourt (2 yr, $7.55 mil; 2.73 ERA, 3.89 xFIP). Put him on the watch list at this point, as his likely price tag of around $3.0 million would put him right along the line of mercenary and asset. However, if his cost manages to retreat by about $0.5 million, he could prove to be a bargain. Matt Guerrier, RHP, Minnesota Twins Guerrier may be a little out of place on this list, considering the fact that he signed with Minnesota for a lofty $3.15 million to avoid arbitration last season. To put it bluntly, Guerrier didn’t deserve that kind of contract, especially since he had almost no hope of maintaining his 2.36 ERA from ‘09. And that 2010 salary may be exactly what prices him out of any realistic range for his talents. However, Guerrier is a bit of a wild card in that his skill set (low Ks, low BBs) may ultimately leave him undervalued by many suitors, leaving him to sign for below market value. Unfortunately, the matter is complicated by his 3.17 ERA in ’10, which may lead a team like Houston to grossly overpay. Nonetheless, Guerrier will represent a nice addition to whomever eventually signs him. Even without the strikeouts, his expected ERA was an adequate 3.834 -- good for any bullpen. Here’s to hoping enough teams are hesitant to drop his price tag to $2.5-$3.0 million. Other than that, it may be best to stay away. Jesse Crain, RHP, Minnesota Twins Crain came into 2010 signed to a third year arbitration tag of $2 million, considerably less than many similar relievers he would outperform, including Detroit’s Bobby Seay, Tampa’s Grant Balfour, and his teammate, Guerrier. After struggling for the better part of two seasons for the Twins, Crain made great strides in his control this season, coming together in a big way just in time for a free agency pay raise. With a great slider, which he throws about 40 percent of the time, and a hard 94-95 mph heater, Crain has the stuff that scouts look for. In addition, his excellent secondary stuff should allow for an improvement in his fastball for 2011, which could produce added dividends. Though Crain’s cost may go up a bit due to his sexy 3.04 ERA, he may be able to hide in the sea of relievers who pulled off that feat in 2010, allowing him to earn just a modest increase in salary in the upcoming year. With an expected ERA of 3.845, a real chance of major improvement, and a possible mid $2.0 million salary, Crain has a chance to be the bargain reliever of the free agent class. The biggest factor working in the Red Sox’ favor this off-season is the number of potentially available options -- which works two-fold. On the one hand, the large number of options will canabilize each other, driving down the price of each option. On the other, the numerous available relievers will allow a couple quality options to fall through the cracks. When it comes to relievers, it can be very difficult to project their final price tag, as hurlers with similar value can ultimately earn very different salaries (i.e. Darren Oliver, $3.5 mil, and Jose Contreras, $1.5 mil). This offseason, expect the Sox to be patient in their pursuit of relievers, possibly gaining one as part of a trade while waiting for the action in the market to settle down. Either way, expect them to come in with a revamped and strengthened corps when April arrives.

Ryan Kalish and the 2011 Club

After Sunday night’s heartbreaker, the Sox have three games to shave 2.5 off of the Wildcard chase… Ryan Kalish… Kalishnikov… AK-47… whichever nickname you prefer, has done quite a job in Jacoby Ellsbury’s stead. The main piece of the Sox second-half patchwork outfield, Kalish seems to have worked himself into the Sox’ 2011 picture. With incumbent left and center fielders Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury having missed most of 2010 due to injury, the Sox’ outfield picture is as unclear as any position on the team -- third base, catcher, and the bullpen included. While trades, arbitration, and free agency will drastically affect our outlook before April arrives, one thing for sure is that Ryan Kalish’s role with the Major League club will be a hot topic come Spring Training. Perhaps the problem with Kalish is that he does fit into the 2011 roster. With Cameron and Ellsbury’s well-documented injury problems, the Sox will need to employ a reliable fourth outfielder who can fill in quite regularly -- much like a 6th man in basketball; an extension of the starting lineup. Kalish would fit this mold perfectly: he is cheap, has shown the ability to field all three outfield slots, and has enough chops to fill in at the bottom of the order without detracting from the team’s firepower. In addition, it could give the team additional time to evaluate his candidacy for a full-time starter’s role in 2012 and beyond. However, that may only be the easy way out -- solving a short-term need while keeping the fan base happy -- and could hurt the team in the long term. Impressive as he’s been, his bat isn’t ready for prime time. He still needs to work a little on pitch recognition and making consistent contact -- particularly with breaking balls, which he has had some difficulty with at times. Forcing him onto the big league roster could stunt his development, keeping him from reaching his sky-high potential. Therefore, both the Sox and Kalish would be best served by sending him to AAA and where he could take a half- or a full-season to develop at the plate. Ideally, Kalish could gain experience against near-big league caliber pitching at AAA, allowing the Sox to promote him mid-season with an eye for 2012. If he were able to show continued development in his power while reclaiming some of that stellar plate discipline from the low-minors, he could find himself as the Sox’ first home-grown corner outfielder since Trot Nixon in 1999. Kalish at the Dish in '10 While Kalish has impressed at times in his 2010 debut, his overall performance has been a mixed bag. In the field, he’s been spectacular -- a 46.3 UZR/150 fueling hopes that he may be the sought-after power-speed centerfield combo that MLB teams dream of. His bat, however, has been a different story, as a .731 OPS -- including a .301 OBP -- has left much to be desired. The main drawback has been the outfielder’s near 1:4 BB:K rate, which, while not a major cause for concern for a rookie, leaves questions as to how much more development time he needs. On the bright side, however, his plate discipline indicators have been quite good, and suggest walk and strikeout rates of just about 10 and 16 percent -- far better than his current numbers. As for the discrepancy between his actual numbers and those suggested by his plate discipline indicators, this is often seen by young batters who need to refine their approach at the plate, which comes with experience. But Kalish is a work in progress beyond his strike zone judgment. Before sliding in as a starting corner outfielder -- and, by default, a playoff-caliber middle of the order bat -- Kalish will have to add more power. Unless he develops the plate discipline of a JD Drew, Kalish will have to hit around 25 home runs annually in order to boost his batting average and slugging percentages into the range of a plus-corner outfielder. That said, Kalish is very close to reaching these criteria and could be ready for a fulltime job sometime in 2011 or 2012.

A Reason to Stay in the Game, Prince Felix’ 2010

For those of you looking for a reason to watch the final two weeks of the 2010 season… With 13 games remaining, the Sox’ turbulent season is winding to a close. For the players, there is plenty of reason to be motivated. The young call-ups are receiving their first cups of big league coffee. The veterans are making that last push for next year’s employment. For the team, there is little to keep the drive alive. Trailing the Rays by 6.5 games in the Wild Card and the Yanks by 7.0 in the division, there is little reason to hope. By now, most have sacked up for the long winter, focusing on the Pats while they await the Sox’ April restart. But in those final 13 matches, the Sox have one last trick up their sleeve -- two three-game series against New York. A 1 in 100 Hail Mary pass. A long shot, but a shot none the less. Now, before we get any images of grandeur, let’s get something straight: this is, quite literally, a 1 in 100 shot.