Tim Wakefield returns to the bullpen

While Tim Wakefield continues to stand for a spot in the starting rotation as he continues to try for the wins record as a Red Sox pitcher. At this date the Red Sox are ready to give the five starter spots to Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka. That leaves Wakefield asking for a job that doesn't exist right now. It's always possible that an injury or other change opens a spot, but I want to suggest why Wakefield might be better served as a reliever. Since 1993 Wakefield has made 62 appearances as a reliever with an ERA of 3.75 in that role. While that sample size is fairly small there is plenty to see that is encouraging. The most obvious change is a spike in strikeouts, which occurs when most pitchers change from starter to reliever. His K/9 in the starter role has been 5.9, but in the reliever role he holds a 7.9. The benefits of a knuckle ball pitcher are a drop in BABIP, which he has a consistent rate of .275 as a starter and a reliever. This benefit will be beneficial as his K/BB was a poor 1.76 as a starter and a slightly above average 2.16 as a reliever. This helps him beat his FIP in both roles.

Josh Beckett contract models

It's rumored that the Red Sox and Josh Beckett are in strong discussions on a new contract according to Gordon Edes at ESPN Boston. The target is the end of spring training to finalize something or weight until the offseason. I have made my opinion on Beckett's contract known at Yawkey Way Academy and came to a value of 4/$64, but this was before we saw the changes to the 2010 market and the addition of John Lackey. It's tough to say what Beckett will demand in these talks and how much injury language he will accept. The first point we must remember is that while Lackey came to Boston at 5/$82.5 he was a free agent and required top dollar. The Red Sox know that 2010 will include Beckett in the fold, but if Beckett wants long term security he might have to give up a few dollars. Another point is that a new contract would up his payment in 2010. He is currently set to be paid $12.5 million this year, but any extension would likely include a solid raise in the 2010 season.

Is Tampa Bay pitching overrated?

While Tampa Bay has had plenty of named talent over the last few years from Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza and then David Price came along. This along with a top offense and elite talent has led to their recent success in the AL East. Perhaps overvalued is a bit harsh, but they have several pitching changes and again compared to their peers in the division have some flaws. Departing this year will be the presence of Kazmir at the top of the rotation, but that shouldn't be a bad thing. His walk rate was always high and with the drop in velocity it's likely the drop in strikeouts is going to stick around. He is surely not the ace of seasons before. That leaves James Shields as the team ace and that is a good start. He was the ninth most valuable pitcher in the AL last year based on pitching runs above replacement. There were some cracks in his season though as his walk rate climbed, but not an extreme amount and should regress in 2010.

Casey Fien addition worth another look

Monday saw the Red Sox claim Casey Fien from the Detroit Tigers. Of little note is the dropping of Gaby Hernandez to clear a spot. I am a bit shocked to see a pitcher with such solid peripherals in the minors given up on by the Tigers. Perhaps there is something they know, but let's see what Fien adds to the Red Sox. He's a two pitch reliever with a 91 mph fastball and a 80 mph slider thrown 25% of the time. His slider did not show well in his small sampling with a run value of -5.47 per hundred thrown, but a much bigger sample is needed to decide if it needs work. This isn't very exciting as his speed isn't great and with only two pitches hitters can just wait out the fastball. His minor league numbers though show he has something to contribute. His ERA in the minors stands at 3.04 and 3.21 in Triple-A. Obviously as a reliever his sample sizes are small, but a minor league FIP of 2.86 and 3.20 in Triple-A. Then why would the Tigers give up on Fien as a reliever?

Michael Bowden looks to make an impact in 2010

Is there any article about Michael Bowden that doesn't make reference to the Aug. 21 debacle against the Yankees. It's bad enough that we have to deal with relievers small sample sizes, but if we're going to boil a pitchers skill down to 2 IP then you'll never see what a pitcher really is. Obviously Bowden is not going to push Josh Beckett, Jon Lester or John Lackey from the rotation for sure. It's a long shot he passes Tim Wakefield, Daisuke Matsuzaka or Clay Buchholz without a few injuries. This leaves him one shot to make the major league roster out of camp. Lately there has been talk he could see time again this year in the bullpen. His stuff has not fully transitioned to the major league level as his strikeout rate is down to 6.43, but his walk rate was way up in 2009 at Triple-A and the majors. Unless he can return the walk rate to the elite levels he showed previously he will struggle as a starter with his K/BB around 2.00.

J.D. Drew contemplates retirement after 2011

During an interview yesterday J.D. Drew made interesting comments about his future with the Red Sox and in baseball. While…

What about lineup protection?

It didn't take long for David Ortiz to ask for a "power" bat to protect him in the lineup after Manny Ramirez was traded. This was oddly timed last year as the team was returning Jason Bay to the lineup and was expecting big things from him. Now with Bay gone Ortiz has stuck to his mantra asking who is supposed to "protect" him now. This is a mental thing for David, but protection is a very misunderstood idea. The first thing I would hope is that Ortiz would take it upon himself to become the protection. To stop expecting it of others and say "I can hit 35 homers have a .400 OBP and carry this team". Outside of that we need to understand what is known about protection. Early studies looked at different numbers and found lineup protection to be largely a myth. Some were small size studies. Others said any effect they found was so small to be considered a myth. So we should just ignore Ortiz's statement and move on? Not yet.

Baseball America top 100

Baseball America has released the top 100 prospect list today and after getting hammered for an hour or so with traffic I was finally able to view the list. This list along with John Sickels at MinorLeagueBall.com are my favorite and most trusted lists. The Red Sox saw four players crack the list this year with none in the top 20.

• 21 - Ryan Westmoreland
• 24 - Casey Kelly
• 75 - Josh Reddick
• 87 - Lars Anderson

Yankees buy on small sample size

Yesterday the Yankees made an interesting move and added Chan Ho Park to the roster for $1.2 million and $300,000 in incentives. This gives them some options regarding Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes and could result in one going to Triple-A to start the year. The question is does Park really bring anything to the Yankees? Park is one of those players who benefited early in his career from park factors in Dodger Stadium from 1996-2001, long before FIP or QERA was around to let the masses see what was really going on. His FIP in LA was 4.33, but he looked much better with an ERA of 3.77 and clearly a factor of his low number of home runs against. In 2002 he moved to Texas and things have never been the same. His ERA since leaving has been 5.22, but in a very small sample size of 50 IP last year he looked to turn things around. Was this change for real giving the Yankees a new bullpen threat or was it nothing but sample size issues and a regression in Yankee Stadium sure to come?

The early returns on SIERA

For those not following the sabermetric updates Baseball Prospectus has attempted to create a new pitching statistic that improves on all those before it. This new stat is called SIERA or Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average. This takes the work of Nate Silver who created QERA to attempt to fix the combined issues in FIP and xFIP. So far the sabermetric community has put in lots of work reviewing, but what are the early returns? Matt Schwartz and Eric Seidman are the main authors on this work and attempt to describe first why this new stat is needed. The biggest reason is that while FIP, xFIP and QERA are all very instructional they do have a problem. That problem lays in a potential weighting of the three factors pitchers control strike outs, walks and groundball rate. In this case QERA is the worst for that failing as stated here: