Will Carroll’s Team Health Reports: Red Sox

Will Carroll is known far and wide as the “injury expert” — as his Twitter name suggests — and having…

A-Gon Cleared to Start Swinging the Bat

In case anybody missed this earlier today. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal reports that Adrian Gonzalez has been cleared…

Could the Sox Be a Player for Pujols?

In case you’ve been hiding under a rock -- or enjoying the winter’s break from hardball -- you're aware of the contract standoff between Albert Pujols and St. Louis Cardinals. If you aren’t, here’s the skinny: Pujols wanted to be locked up long-term in St. Louis before hitters reported to Spring Training. The deadline to reach an agreement was set for Wednesday by the Pujols camp. That time came and went, Pujols vowed not to negotiate during the season, and now it looks like the league’s best player will hit free agency come 2012. It’s been quite the show. Now that the gauntlet has been thrown, the rumor mill has begun circulating rumors as to Pujols potential suitors -- the Chicago Cubs being the early frontrunners. While no large market National League club can skirt their incumbent first baseman to pursue the league’s hottest commodity, the Red Sox and a fair number of other American League teams may find themselves unlikely bidders next winter. And who can blame them? As long as Pujols would be willing to switch to part-time DH duties, any of the big-market AL organizations could be in on the slugger next winter. So what if the Yankees have Mark Teixeira manning first? Does anyone think that would stop them from pursuing Prince Albert? Should the Red Sox extend Adrian Gonzalez contract, is there any doubt they would rule out Pujols because he wouldn’t be able to man first base full time? Given the alternatives, it would be foolish to consider any powerhouse American League team out of the running, whether they have a first baseman or not. It’s rare that a first-ballot Hall of Famer hits the free agent market, let alone one of the greatest hitters of the last 20 years. But if the Sox do plan to explore that option, they may have to begin pinching their pennies in preparation. The Sox already have a tight 2012 budget facing them -- the team has $100 million on the docket for just eight rostered players, while Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie, Daniel Bard will all hit arbitration for the first time. Factoring in a likely extension for Adrian Gonzalez, and the Sox could have $125 million committed to just nine players (all five current rotation members, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Bobby Jenks, and Gonzalez). With Ryan Howard commanding a $21 million per annum extension in 2010 and Cliff Lee receiving $24 million per year in free agency, is it all that difficult to imagine Pujols’ value approaching -- or even eclipsing -- $30 million per year? The Sox had better hope not. If he were, the club’s 2012 salaries would reach the $150 million range after just 10 rostered players. In that case, John Henry would have to open up the coiffures to an all-time high, exceeding their $168 million in payouts during 2010. With right field open, perhaps only the emergence of Ryan Kalish would be able to keep the team salary below the $190 million range. That kind of spending will probably be a difficult sell to the Boston ownership, however. With ratings taking a big hit last season and revenue streams drying up, Henry may be wary of large player salaries. For contracts such as the one Pujols would command, the upcoming season will have a lot to say about the direction of the franchise. If the Crawford and Gonzalez acquisitions become a financial success and reverse the club’s declining ratings, Henry and Lucchino may decide that free agent buzz is the way to sustain interest in the club. If no such rating increase occurs, expect Henry to pull back and refrain from signing Pujols. So, in the end, it probably won’t be team needs that decides the fate of the Red Sox acquisitions. For the first time in recent memory, it will test the limit of the team’s once bottomless finances.

How much is Adrian Gonzalez worth?

As many of you probably remember, soon after the Red Sox finalized the Adrian Gonzalez trade with the Padres, Bob…

2011 Red Sox Projected Stolen Bases

photo © 2007 Eric Kilby | more info (via: Wylio) ^ Bill James’s total projected stolen bases: 143 My total…

Ten Things to Watch for this Spring

photo © 2005 Ken Curtis | more info (via: Wylio)Spring training is finally “official”! Before we know it, lineup cards…

Is the Sox Offense Too Left-Handed Heavy?

The Red Sox have accumulated so much talent this offseason that they have a problem. OK, so it’s a good,…

A Quant Goes Qual – Part 3

Since the recently forecast Daisuke Matsuka is “…like a box of chocolates”, let’s go glass half full and empty on…

When Winning Isn’t Enough, Crawford & Gonzalez at the Plate

When Winning Isn’t Enough

Perhaps the biggest take away from the 2010 season was that the Boston Red Sox’ popularity has waned significantly since their 2004 World Championship. Not surprisingly, with the fan base’s angst relieved, the daily fervor and obsession began to fade -- taking with it the team’s profitability.

2007’s championship dealt another blow, as success (and, to another degree, championships) became somewhat routine.

The Red Sox’ 2010 campaign hammered that point home as television ratings and overall interest in the team took a considerable hit. Theories as to why this occurred often cite poor performance as the primary culprit.

However, this logic seems to gloss over the fact that, by all accounts, Boston’s following was diminishing even while the club was in the playoff hunt. If the playoff chase is primary mover in team interest, then ratings and team interest shouldn’t have fallen until September. However, they were slumping far earlier as both fair-weather and hardcore fans, alike, dropped out of the running.

This left the organization in a precarious position. In a market big on bite but relatively small on population, that ravenous fanbase was what kept Boston among the elite in profitability and, by corollary, personnel spending and success.

With this new and unfamiliar uncertainty, the organization seems to have mounted a response:

Go out and make headlines.

The Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford acquisitions may be a telling peek into the club’s changing paradigm -- one where personnel moves have as much to do about building a winner as they do about generating excitement.

And if this off-season is any indication, the club plans on reviving their lethargic fan base by giving them some news toys -- something to get excited about.

And though these acquisitions are, by all accounts, great moves for the team, there is something a bit unsettling about their nature.

In many ways, the departure from the club’s tight-pursed, efficient approach suggests a bit of weakness.

Theo Epstein doesn’t enjoy signing long, expensive deals for free agents. Theo Epstein doesn’t like giving up premium prospects for expiring free-agents-to-be.

Under the Epstein Doctrine, players are merely serial numbers who combine to form a model of efficiency for the rest of the league to follow.

However, this current offseason (the Carl Crawford deal in particular) has been an abandonment of that canon, which begs the question: has the Red Sox’ business model changed?

Are the Boston Red Sox feeling an uncomfortable squeeze from a shrinking fan base?

It may be so. It may be that the team needs to arouse it’s fan base to hit internal sales and profitability quotas. It would make sense, as both players were acquired just days before tickets went on sale to the general public -- did we mention the Christmas buying season is in full swing?

Whatever the case may be, 2011 could be setting the stage for some changes in operations over the next few seasons -- or they could be setting the stage for more financial uncertainty.

If the Crawford and Gonzalez signings “work” in drumming up interest in the club, we may see more big free agent splashes in years to come; while low-profile, but similarly valuable, deals such as Mike Cameron’s take a back seat.

This is a particularly interesting scenario since there is no telling how long the halo effect of these signings will last. One year? Two years? Several months?

It’s anyone’s guess.

If, on the other hand, they fail to increase viewership and revenue streams, then there is a possibility that the Sox will have to rein in spending over the next few years while they sort out their new position in baseball’s financial hierarchy.

If the decrease in popularity lasts for a prolonged period, this could have dire affects on the team’s on-field success as the front office pulls back from personnel spending. This, in turn, would mean fewer playoff appearances, which may drive down interest, revenue streams, and team spending.

A vicious cycle … and all unfortunate reminders that, at its heart, baseball really is a business.

Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford at the Plate

What a week.

The additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez make the Red Sox’ lineup one of the most formidable in the league. Crawford’s bat profiles very well as a top of the order hitter, while Gonzalez should challenge 120 RBI from the middle of the lineup.

Not surprisingly, both players check out as safe bets for 2011.

Gonzalez’ star looks to rise from the favorable offensive environs (as fellow writer Darryl Johnston pointed out on Wednesday), which should go a long way toward boosting his power numbers. He should have no problem challenging 40 homers in Fenway.

And, if he can, in fact, realize improve his power over seasons past, he may see a slight uptick in his walk totals. Data has shown that home run and isolated slugging percentages have a strong correlation with low zone percentages. Therefore, if Gonzalez becomes a 45 HR hitter in Fenway (as opposed of a 35 HR type in San Diego), he could see his OBP rise over the .400 mark -- with an outside shot at a 1.000 OPS.

If there is one knock on Gonzalez, it’s that he may benefit from reigning in his new-found aggressive approach. Had A Gonz managed to keep his O-Swing to a more manageable 26 percent (instead of 31.8 percent in 2010), he could have seen his OBP rise to as .413.

But that’s nitpicking.

Now that he’s in a media market fitting of his talent, he’ll be a household name in no time.

America, meet Adrian Gonzalez.

While he’s a very different hitter than his new teammate, we can make strikingly similar remarks about Crawford’s aggressive approach at the plate. While he has few flaws in his offensive game, perhaps one weakness is his penchant for offering at pitches outside the zone.

With an O-Swing of 35.6 percent last season (up from 31.0 in 2009), Crawford could stand to keep the bat on his shoulder a little more. As a result, pitchers baited him into chasing more often, resulting in a Zone Percentage decrease of six percent.

The Sox may want him to be more patient this season, but it’s anyone’s guess whether or not this will actually matter. While in many cases a rise in O-Swing can take a chunk out of a batter’s OBP, Crawford saw enough of a decrease in Zone Percentage to almost completely offset the effect on his walk rate.

Therefore, if Crawford reverted back to his old level of 31.0 percent O-Swing, two things could happen.

One, he could see an increase in his walk rate to a nine percent -- with an OBP north of .375.

The other, pitchers will adjust to the trend and stop throwing out of the zone, resulting a little to no change.

Given the options, maybe an adjustment is worth a shot. With Boston’s philosophy concerning patience at the plate, there’s a pretty good chance of that happening.

The Red Sox Weren’t a Playoff Team Without Adrian Gonzalez — And That’s Why They Pulled the Trigger

The Sox finally got their man. Or did they? Much like Captain Ahab’s pursuit of Moby Dick, Theo Epstein landed his own white whale, albeit at the cost of the farm system’s prized jewels and without a long-term contract It was an expensive move, no doubt about it, but lying beyond the Boston-San Diego “who-wins?” question is a far more interesting angle: what does the timing of the deal says about the front office’s expectations of the 2011 Boston Red Sox? Needless to say, the early months of the off-season hadn’t gone well for the Red Sox. The departure of Victor Martinez and the expected flight of Adrian Beltre were leaving the 2011 squad far behind the curve. These two holes, combined with the club’s fragility had made the club very vulnerable to missing the playoffs in lieu of some major changes. Adding a marquee bat at one of those positions would go a long way toward making the team an AL East contender in 2011 -- and it’s possible the front office thought Adrian Gonzalez was the last and only way to make a winner out of the sinking lineup. How can you tell? Because in baseball, much like in life, necessity is everything. Yet no one seemed to be paying attention. On the surface, a vast majority of the New England and national press seem satisfied in writing off the trade as the Sox “finally getting their man.” In some ways, it’s true. Boston has coveted Gonzalez for years and they have been on the verge of acquiring the slugger multiple times. It's an easy conclusion to reach and one that no one would question. But it's also a vast oversimplification of the team's predicament and the organization's need for the slugger. In a vacuum, the timing of the deal was very poor. The free agent market was far from settling, they could have pursued a far less expensive stop gap at the winter meetings, and Gonzalez was hitting the free agent market in a year anyway. In essence, the Sox decided to forego any meaningful pursuit of a free agent corner infielder; instead, opting to relinquish three of their best prospects for one year of Adrian Gonzalez . That’s it. One year. Please save the comments about him maybe signing a long-term deal before the season begins. It’s stlll a one-year trade because Gonzalez would have hit free agency at the end of the year, signing a long-term deal then instead of now. With the Yankees all but out of the running with Mark Teixeira at first base, the Sox would have been the odds-on favorites to ink the slugger, going through Hell and high water to ensure they got their man -- meanwhile allowing them to keep Kelly, Rizzo, Fuentes, and our PTBNL. Is that a 100 percent guarantee Gonzalez would be a Red Sox in 2012? Of course not. Is there a chance he would have signed elsewhere or have been dealt to another team at the deadline? Absolutely. But that doesn’t matter in this organization. Unless the Red Sox absolutely have to, they don't make moves like this. And unless they were desperate now, they wouldn't have sacrificed their future. In the event Gonzalez would be unavailable, the would have moved on to Prince Fielder, another stop gap, or another trade. This team always has options... … because Theo isn’t stupid and because “Adrian Gonzalez,” to this organization, is just a name. And because the value he brings to the table can be found elsewhere -- so long as they aren't desperate for an infusion of talent. This Boston GM doesn’t irrationally covet players because he considers them to be “his guys.” If you know this organization well and are familiar with how it operates, you’d know that such a Gonzalez-in-Boston guarantee carries very little weight. You’d know that the Boston front office -- of any team in the league -- is proficient at envisioning creative, fluid solutions to its personnel problems. No Adrian Gonzalez would have been merely a speed bump, as was Alex Rodriguez in 2004. They would have adjusted and moved on like they have so many times. While in the past we’ve bemoaned plenty of Epstein’s moves in this web space, he deserves tremendous credit for having created an organizational philosophy geared toward the objective valuation of players while making calculated business decisions. Moving forward, what does it mean when a team historically stingy with prospects makes a blockbuster deal for one-year of a player? It means they feel the move was absolutely necessary -- which, in turn, means they feel the team wouldn’t have been able to compete without his presence. With the previous state of the lineup, and the poor alternatives on free agency, I couldn’t agree more with their assessment. Aside from a blockbuster trade, the team didn’t have many ways of making up for their losses on offense. Jayson Werth flew off the board earlier today, and plenty of teams are all-in on Carl Craword. And even then, the team already has three very capable outfielders. Werth’s five WAR would be whittled down to below a two-and-a-half gain with JD Drew’s 2.6 in right. The same goes for Crawford and Ellsbury and co. in left. A splash just isn’t as big when there’s no water in the pool. So where else could the team have turned? Catcher is a historically thin position, and no one is trading Joe Mauer or Buster Posey. First base is mostly barren of short-term free agent candidates, especially with Lance Berkman and Adam Dunn off the board. Third base is even more so. Had Aubrey Huff been on the market, things may have looked very different, especially considering he signed a two-year deal. Huff for two-years would have allowed the club to shift him to DH next season, putting both Fielder and Gonzalez in play on free agency. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case and the Red Sox were stuck with precious few options if they hoped make a big upgrade. Fortunately, the San Diego route was still available and the front office wasn’t afraid to push their chips into the pot. So, is it the right move? Well, that comes down to your own personal philosophy. If you think it’s necessary for the team to be a contender most every season, then you’d certainly be a fan of this trade. If you advocate for aggressive draft spending, bonus points to you. Gonzalez' six-seven WAR will be a huge benefit to the team, even when adjusting for Kevin Youkilis' move back across the diamond. There was no bigger splash the team could have made and it's hard envisioning an otherwise competitive Boston team without some fancy maneuvering, a little bit of luck, and a lot of health. If you would rather save for the future, find stop gaps and look for creative solutions, maybe you’d rather the club hold onto what they have. Just don't expect the team to do a whole lot in 2011. In the end, it’s difficult to argue against the trade. With the off season shaping up the way it has, the Sox were firing with a six-shooter that had maybe one or two bullets left -- and forced into a corner, they opted to take one of the last shots they had. Fortunately, that blast took down a big bull. And you can rest assured that Adrian Gonzalez’ presence will be felt across the American League come April -- which may also be the deciding factor in this city's 2011 playoff push.