Recapping Kotchman, Chapman in Cincinnati

Kotchman to Seattle With all the positive moves the Red Sox have made this off-season, it’s a bit curious that Casey Kotchman became the first player expendable in the wake of the Adrian Beltre acquisition. Following the trade, the party line claimed that Kotchman became obsolete - and expendable - with four starting-caliber corner infielders on the roster. While it is certainly true that the team does not need four such players to man two positions (Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Beltre, Mike Lowell, Kotchman), it seems as if the team has forgotten that they have been aggressively shopping Mike Lowell since November. Following a trade of Mike Lowell – whose occurrence is a near certainty – the team is likely to be without a quality reserve corner infielder. Sure, Jed Lowrie and Bill Hall will be able to man the position in the event of injury and off-days, but what kind of upgrade do they provide over Kotchman? In the event of a significant injury to Beltre or Youkilis, both Hall and Lowrie would be completely miscast as a full-time option. In addition, with Beltre missing 51 games this past season, entrusting the insurance policy to either option is a very dangerous proposition...

One $9 Million Question Answered, One More Arises

Adrian Beltre, The Player This off-season has had quite an emphasis on trusting higher-order statistical metrics as, surely, both Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre do not fit the conventional mold for key cogs on championship caliber teams. Two players whose values lie predominantly with their defensive production, 2010 will be a trial by fire for the front office’s new-fangled policy of relying on fielding. Sabermetricians worldwide rejoice at this move towards the mainstream (myself included). As a Red Sox fan, however, I find myself wishing some other team were the guinea pig. Which begs the question: what kind of player are the Red Sox getting with Adrian Beltre? A Move Within a Move Maybe that last point runs contrary to the whole business side of sports – that, because you pay these players so much, they should do whatever the hell you tell ‘em to do. He should be the good soldier, not reply, and go into camp as Beltre’s backup. If he whines about not playing, too bad! Go get a day job! Though, in reality, that’s not the way things work. Aging veterans who have earned their stripes always get traded - and this may very well be the last bastion of humanity left in the business side of sports...

What to Do With David Ortiz

Ask anyone about the playoff prospects of the 2010 Red Sox and they are sure to tell you that a large part of them are riding on the bat of a resurgent David Ortiz. Papi has been one of the biggest cogs in the Red Sox machine for the better part of the past decade. Pushing the team to the brink of a World Series appearance in 2003, he lit worlds on fire bringing the club to two world championships in 2004 and 2007. Then 2008 struck. Downed by an injury to his left wrist, Papi missed 45 games in June and July recovering from his subsequent surgery. Since then, Ortiz hasn't the same. Wrist injuries are death on power hitters. They decrease bat control and bat speed – two of the most important components of power hitting. But, the wrist is just one development in the evolution of David Ortiz as a hitter. He turned 34 this past November, showing signs of aging in his last few seasons. There were PED allegations. And, it wasn’t long before the injury that Ortiz was struggling at the plate, leading to suspicions that Ortiz has become somewhat of a second-half hitter. Still, what seems to have happened to Ortiz is that his wrist has combined with some of the drawbacks of aging - suggesting that Ortiz’s bat speed has slowed...

The Boston Red Sox and What It Means to Spend Wisely

There is a difference between the Red Sox and nearly every other team in baseball - and it’s pretty obvious. How lucky are our home town fans, that our very own Boston squad has significantly more money to spend on players most other teams. Actually, all but one - but who's counting. Too bad they’re in our division. But that’s alright, so long as we use our resources wisely. So, what is using our resources wisely? From the Red Sox’ perspective, it’s much different from most teams. Over the past five seasons, the team’s highest budget was $143 million, registered in 2007. We’ll save spectulating on this year’s budget, which will be quite high, as there could still be some maneuvering left to go, and the value of free agents and draft picks in this economy is yet to be determined. Therefore, we’ll treat 2007 as the team’s theoretical budget through which to speculate on how the team can formulate its spending practices. Citing the research of analyst Keith Woolner, a theoretical replacement level team would win approximately 44 games. Putting this in perspective, this standard of futility is comparable to the some worst teams of all time, including the 2003 Detroit Tigers (43-119), the 1962 Mets (40-120), and 1952 Pittsburgh Pirates (42-112). After seeing this, two thoughts come to mind. One, wow, how far have the Mets come since that disturbingly dreadful inaugural season 47 years ago. The other, what in the hell happened to the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, who found a way to produce a 20-134 record (.130 win percentage) and be doomed to the annals of worst team in MLB history. Ouch. According to the all-knowing Wikipedia, only 3,179 fans attended the team's first 16 home games...

Lowrie, Bowden Face Crossroads in 2010

Important Seasons Upcoming for Bowden and Lowrie For all the talk about 2010 being a “bridge” year, it looks more like the team is building a new Boston skyline than a bridge over troubled water. With three big free agent signings already in the books and more expected to come, the team might as well be jumping cannonballs off the ledge with the huge splashes we’ve seen so far. Still, the “bridge” that we’re seeing is really quite interesting in what it says about the team’s upper-level prospects and players ready to contribute on the major-league level. In particular, this upcoming season will be crucial in the careers of Michael Bowden and Jed Lowrie. Though Bowden may have dug his own grave with his ineptitude on the mound last season (much of which was bad luck, i.e. a .377 BABIP) and Lowrie’s season was cut short by unfortunate injuries, the team’s “bridge” may not be to the next group of prospects – per se – but, rather, it is a bridge over the current failing batch, Bowden and Lowrie...

The AL East SlugFest, More on Gonzalez

Haymakers and The Vazquez Deal Punch. Then counter punch. The Sox signed John Lackey. Then the Yankees added Javier Vazquez. While not a knockout punch by any means, the move is a big blow by any measure - maybe a rib-buster or a deep cut above the left eye. Still, the move looks like another excellent trade by Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman, who always seems to acquire stud players at excellent prices. Vazquez looks to be no different, as the team ceded expendable pieces in Melky Cabrera, and minor leaguers Arodys Vizcaino and Mike Dunn. Marc Hulet made a great breakdown of the prospects in his profile of the Yanks’ top 10 prospects, with Vizcaino 4^th and Dunn 6^th. Vizcaino, 19, has quite the ceiling, as evidenced by his 11.06 K/9 in 2009 at low-A. His fastball ranges from the high 80s to mid 90s...

Sox Fans Grab Mallets While Theo Prepares to Be The Whack-a-Mole

This will certainly be a defining offseason when Red Sox historians look back on Theo Epstein’s legacy as Boston GM. If the acquisitions work, fans and media alike will sing high praise – and the untouchable GM will become all the more invincible. If the moves fail, he will be chastised and become vulnerable for the first time in his career. It’s difficult to give a grade to Theo at this point of the offseason - much less begin to rip him in the media. For one, there’s still so much work to be done that any analysis is incomplete, especially with Mike Lowell hanging in limbo. On the other hand, the fact that there’s been so much contention over every signing thus far means that there's likely not a single person left in New England that is happy with our GM - and any failure for the free agents in the upcoming season will be overmagnified. Marco Scutaro, John Lackey, Mike Cameron. There is no concensus – lots of very intelligent people have advocated on both sides for all three acquisitions. Marco Scutaro is the best of a poor class of free agent shortstops. He’ll end up costing the Red Sox a 2nd round pick and is signed to a very favorable 3-year (or some would say 2-year) deal. He’s a late bloomer who some argue is a one-year wonder. Scutaro will have to be every bit as good as his breakout in 2009 for both sides to be satisfied. A good personnel move? Yes. But, it will be hard for Theo to win this one in the media...

Red Sox ink Mike Cameron to two-year deal

[UPDATE by Evan, 9:00 PM] The Associated Press is reporting that the Mike Cameron deal is done. It's two years in the range of $15.5 million, according to Ken Rosenthal. I think it's a fantastic deal. Cameron has 20-home run pop while providing tremendous defense. It's unknown whether Cameron will patrol left or center. This makes Jeremy Hermida the fourth outfielder. Read on for more...

Lowell to Texas, Beltre to Boston… And a Cherry Named Maximiliano

Lowell to Texas, Beltre to Boston? This rumor has been cooking for a long time, and it may finally be ready for consumption. According to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, the Red Sox and Rangers have a deal in place that would send Mike Lowell to the Texas Rangers, with the Sox receiving top catching prospect Max Ramirez. Many expect the trade to be a precursor to the signing of Adrian Beltre. As per Rosenthal, the Sox would contribute a substantial portion of Lowell’s contract - in his words, with the Sox “eating nearly all of [Lowell’s] 12 [million dollar] salary.” Dan Barbarisi of the Providence Journal, on the other hand, has the Sox providing “at least half” of the deal. We likely won’t know for some time which of the two price tags will win out, but be certain that it will significantly affect the team’s outlook for the remainder of the winter. Is this the Sox answer to the Granderson deal in New York? Probably not. This isn’t the kind of blockbuster trade that substantially alters the team for 2010. In fact, the trade is curious in the sense that it would significantly hinder the team’s ability to maneuver for free agents for the rest of the off-season – and could put them out of the running for either Jason Bay or Matt Holliday...

That Damn AL East Superiority Complex

I’ve had it up to here with this “he can’t hit in the AL East" crap! Even a few select members of the Red Sox brass believe in this credo – and I feel downright shame that we would support Jason Bay over Matt Holliday merely for the fact that Bay has hit in the division whereas Holliday has never had the chance. Bogus. I ain’t buyin’ it. Would we be saying this about Jason Bay if he came over from a blistering stint in St. Louis? Remember, he hadn’t hit anywhere other than PITTSBURGH before Boston. Needless to say, it’s become one of my pet peeves – and I don’t even like saying the word “pet peeve”. I save that for only the most appropriate of circumstances. But, really, I’ve had it up to here. So I decided to look into the numbers and put my money where my mouth is. First off, it goes without saying that anyone who hits in a weak division, i.e. anywhere in the NL, or some other division where half the team’s players wear a dunce cap onto the field instead of a ball cap – has an easier time succeeding because of the poor competition. No doubt, it’s easier to hit in the AL Central than the AL East. True. No argument there. What is ridiculous is the amount of skepticism weighed against an MLB player by AL East teams because of some feelings of ultimate superiority. Hubris. That’s all it is – and it’s never been worth anything more than a lot of trouble.