Category: Boston Red Sox

 Boston Red Sox

Sox system ranked 7th by ESPN

The 2nd Annual ESPN rankings of the top systems and top prospects by Keith Law were officially released this morning. Catching a lot of fans by surprise was the generous ranking at #7. I really can't quibble too much, however, as you could have made a case for every team in that 7-12 range. It's really just a matter of opinion, and the debate gets brought up a few times every year. Do you prefer a system with more impact major league ready talent or one that's deep with some impact talent at the top and a lot of low-level high-upside guys filling out the top 10. Keith understands that, and provided some valid reasoning:

While it's certainly feasible logic, I don't think you can accurately grade the 2008 draft class quite yet. Not that Law was doing that, as he clearly stated it has the "potential", but I don't know if you can precisely rank the Sox system over teams with more top-heavy systems like the Giants and to an extent, the Orioles. Of course, there's the counter-argument that guys like Pete Hissey (whose ranked 25th at SoxProspects) would probably rank in the 10-15 range for other teams in that 7-12 range. So while the Sox have graduated a lot of their top prospects, they've quickly reloaded through the amateur draft and the international market by adding a lot of depth, and a lot of high-ceiling guys.

January 22, 2009 daniel rathman
Boston Red Sox

Fire Brand explains Win Values

Baseball has forever been a game of statistics and over the past few decades, sabermetrics have taken this passion way beyond batting average and on-base percentage. Growing up, my family always said all you needed to do to be successful was to "build a better mouse-trap," meaning, if you can find a way to improve on existing information, to make something more efficient, you'll find success follows. Statistics in baseball are the new mouse-trap; for the most part, the numbers being used haven't changed for 100 years, they are just being manipulated in a way to provide a better benchmark to evaluate a player's value and/or worth. The end goal never changes: a better mouse-trap still kills the mouse in the end, and a better statistic still just evaluates a player, but the means or accuracy of doing so makes it special.

The problem with the evolution of statistics in baseball has been the public acceptance of them. I'd be just as willing to bet that Woodrow Wilson and his friends talked about Babe Ruth's batting average in 1915 as I would bet that Barack Obama won't discuss the VORP of David Ortiz in 2009. Some statistics resonate through the general public and become part of the casual fan's conversation, and some don't. The "stickiness" of a stat depends on how complicated it is to understand, calculate, or relate to something the average fan can appreciate.

The numbers being thrown around by stat heads these days are often hard to grasp. Even an easy concept, such as Batting Average on Ball In Play, can be misunderstood and misused, as I demonstrated during my fourth outfielder series. Okay, so we all agree that batting average is a horrible statistic to base the value of a player on, but what metric can we all agree on that makes sense? Fortunately for us, Dave Cameron over at FanGraphs, has put together an eight part series on Win Values.

January 10, 2009 shawn medeiros
Boston Red Sox

Cafardo’s Latest: Baldelli, Smoltz close

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe is reporting that Rocco Baldelli and the Boston Red Sox are close to agreeing on terms for the Rhode Island native to become the fourth outfielder for 2009. The St. Petersburg Times reported earlier this evening that Baldelli was likely to sign soon, and Peter Gammons later reported that Rocco and the Red Sox "close."

Cafardo is also reporting the team is likely to announce a deal with 42-year old veteran John Smoltz. Sources involved with negotiations indicate Smoltz with get a one year, $5.5 million deal with the potential to make $10 million in 2009. Smoltz is likely to return by early May and has a desire to be a starter.

January 7, 2009 shawn medeiros