Quick Musings on the Latest Sox Rumors

Billy Wagner According to MLB Trade Rumors, Billy Wagner is considering accepting an arbitration deal from the BoSox because he "loved his experience with the Red Sox enough that's it's now a possibility." That is an MLB Trade Rumors quote, not Wagner directly from Wagner's mouth. However, it's hard not to be skeptical of his sudden change of heart, as no one could love a city enough from four short weeks to make a complete 180 in their opinion of the team and their place within it... Varitek's Player Option Due at Midnight ***UPDATE: Varitek has officially picked up his $3 million player option. As we continue to follow the Jason Varitek story, his contract is undergoing more flip-flopping than a Brett Favre retirement or Florida in the 2000 presidential election. Is he or isn't he? We'll find out before the end of the day, though the verdict is still out as to whether it would be better for him to re-sign... Mauer Extension Talks Begin While all of Boston awaits the man of our dreams... er, catcher of our dreams leaving Minnesota for our nightly NESN living room broadcast, agent Ron Shapiro is beginning to discuss a contract extension for his all-world catcher...

Reaching into the MailBag

This one courtesy of James, aka "jgr jgr". James submitted a few puzzling questions, though this one made me think the most: "Is there some hitter or pitcher out there under the radar that you think will be wearing a new Boston uniform in 2010?" Well, going off this question, we'll avoid talking about the likely suspects, including Bay, Holliday, Harden, or Scutaro who have all received a great deal of coverage not only on this site, but on Sox discussion boards 'Nation' wide (Yes, that was a pun. No, I won't apologize.) As for truly under the radar names, we must look really deep into the free agent roster, probably to the point of back-end bullpen types or bench hitters. While these moves may not be exciting to the average layman, these are the transactions that make championships. Depth and injury/slump insurance is perhaps one of the most underrated aspects of building a championship team. John Henry could grab any fan off the streets to build a team that could win 100 games if everything were guaranteed to go as planned. However, the true talent and meddle of a front office is tested by their contingency planning. When a team has the type of financial resources the Sox have, it's difficult to pick a truly "under the radar" name that will make an impact, as the players the team is likely to sign are usually the top free agents, too big to fly below the hard deck. But there is still value to be that the rest of the baseball world is not discussing. Here's a few that I think the Sox may settle on before the off-season ends: Value at Starting Pitcher Assuming that the Cubs re-sign Rich Harden, while Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard find other suitors, I would love to see the Sox sign Carl Pavano. Though his 5.10 ERA left much to be desired, Pavano actually turned in quite a season in 2009, with a 4.00 FIP ERA to go along with a 3.77 K:BB rate. While his 6.64 K/9 was merely average, a 1.76 BB/9 rate is more than adequate. If you have burning questions about Red Sox Baseball, please submit your questions to Mike_Silver_FireBrandAL@yahoo.com. We'd love to hear what's got you thinking!

So Much So Soon: Analyzing the Sox’ Looong Weekend

Well, that was quick. After a slow couple weeks while we waited for the crowning of the new World Series Champion (who, sadly, were the New York Yankees), the MLB hot stove exploded in a flurry of moves including the trades of Jeremy Hermida and J.J. Hardy, the rejection of Alex Gonzalez’s, Jermaine Dye’s, and Jason Varitek’s options, the outrighting of Nick Green and Joey Gathright, the retention of Victor Martinez, and the re-signing of Tim Wakefield and Bobby Abreu. I’m out of breath. But man, what a week. Jeremy Hermida Though Hermida was just the first pin to drop, coming over to Boston in exchange for Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez, he is quite the exciting piece. Though he vastly underperformed his prospect billing during his seasons with the Marlins, Hermida used to be quite the prospect, ranking as Florida’s top farmhand from 2004-2006 and the MLB’s 4^th best in 2006. But he has fallen quite far since then, posting a cumulative .265/.344/.425 line in 1708 career at-bats. Though Hermida is a big-bodied corner outfielder, standing 6-3, 222 lbs, his power has yet to come around at the big league level, as he posted a career high of just 18 homers back in 2007. Of greater concern, however, has been the dissipation of his walk rate since arriving in the Majors. His once begone elite batting eye was the primary reason for his soaring stock in the minor leagues – of particular interest was his prodigious showing at AA Carolina in 2005, where he drew 111 BBs against just 89 strikeouts in 504 plate appearances on his way to a .293/.457/.518 line.

Wake Re-signed, Contract Re-Negotiated

According to Dan Roche of WBZ-TV, the Sox have re-signed Sox' elder statesman Tim Wakefield to a two-year deal, guaranteeing the pitcher $3.5 million in 2010 and $1.5 million in 2011. MLB Trade Rumors, citing WEEI's Rob Bradford, states that the deal could approach $7 million should the knuckleballer reach all his incentive landmarks. This contract is a departure from past negotiations between the Sox and Wakefield, where the team held a renewable $4 million option on the pitcher's services. The transaction demonstrates that the Red Sox brass have lost a modicum of confidence in Wakefield and his ailing back, as he recovers from his latest surgery and enters his age-44 season. While it is discouraging that the team has lost enough faith in Wake to discontinue his $4 million option, the good news is that he will once again be donning the Boston red come April. Hopefully, he will be able to top his 129.2 inning total from 2009, which was his lowest single-season mark since his rookie season in 1992. Given Wake's effectiveness last season, the Sox can reasonably expect good production out of their aging starter. His 4.58 ERA and 4.58 FIP suggest a quality pitcher still remains, so long as he can stay out of the trainer's room. However, his accumulating injuries suggest that he cannot be relied upon to consistently take the mound. While it's unfortunate that the Sox ended their previous arrangement with Wakefield, it is a good move for the team, as they can save a couple million here and there, allowing the team to spend money elsewhere. In addition, there is a very good chance that this is Wake's final contract, so any leverage he gains by 2012 through performance and inflation will likely make little difference. While $0.5 million this season and $2.5 million in 2010 may not seem like much, the money saved will go a long way toward keeping young talent around in arbitration and signing bench players to add depth.Even for teams with $100+ million payrolls, every penny counts.

The 2009 Shortstop Free Agent Market

One of the more pressing issues facing the Red Sox this offseason, the shortstop position can be considered the number two need for the team, behind the gaping hole in left field. But shortstop may actually be the more challenging option of the two, as the position features few legitimate major league options to fill gaps. As Evan outlined earlier, there are a bevy of quality left field options available on the market, headlined by Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, and Bobby Abreu but also including upside buys in Jermaine Dye and Rick Ankiel, as well as plenty of depth. Come December, no team will be left wanting for a left field option. Teams seeking shortstops will not have this luxury, however. Cot’s Contracts lists just 12 free agent shortstops among this class; 2 of whom have club options. And, no, David Eckstein won’t be considered for the position either. He’s a second baseman now, can’t hit, and has a declining glove. Here are the candidates:

Seeing Straight on Aroldis Chapman

When any new phenomenon arrives, it takes a while for people to adjust their lifestyle and accommodate these changes. Cell phones are the most recent example. The Internet was another. In the baseball world, free agent-prospects are the newest slang, which, understandably, are forcing major league teams to adjust - with varied results. Baseball's newest free agent-prospect phenom, Aroldis Chapman is expected to visit Boston today, on the heels of a visit to New York on Monday. A world-class talent, he is turning baseball economics on its head. On the one hand, he is a prospect – a lean, projectable lefty at a young age, 21. On the other, he will command the salary of a major league free agent – not what you'd expect of a “prospect”. The newest “It Kid” from overseas, Chapman comes fully loaded with everything that makes scouts salivate more than Pavlov’s dogs: a ferocious fastball clocked as high as 102 mph and a long 6-4 frame. As a result, the young Cuban is considered the best prospect to reach the MLB this side of Stephen Strasburg – and he’s a lefty to boot. But there’s a problem with taking this position; mainly, the fact that he’s even labeled a “prospect”. Sure, he has all the traditional markings of one. He’s got exceptional tools, he’s projectable, he’s raw, and, most importantly, he’s young. However, under the modern economics of baseball, with escalating salaries and widely varying budgets, there are two nonnegotiable criteria that give value to and create the allure of the “prospect”...

Bowden and Reddick’s Place in the Master Plan

Two of the Red Sox' biggest prospects, Michael Bowden and Josh Reddick, had less than stellar seasons in 2009. While the pair still remain tremendous talents, it has now become more difficult to see either one in the Sox' future plans, due in part to their failures this year as well as the team's changing circumstances. Still, should either or both pan out as originally expected, they would be quite the addition to a team in need of an infusion of cheap, young talent. Michael Bowden It’s hard to say that Bowden is at a crossroads in his career. He just turned 23, he possesses excellent stuff, and has been great in his minor league showings. However, his 2009 was nothing short of a disaster, as he was belted in every way imaginable in every appearance he made.

Red Sox Offseason BluePrint v.2 : Holliday, Harden, Scutaro

Like most teams, the Boston Red Sox offseason will be defined by the willingness of their owner to open his wallet. Fortunately for Sox fans nationwide, Uncle John certainly has some deep pockets. However, the amount he is willing to spend will have a lot to say about the direction that this team will be headed. The prudent move by the Red Sox will be to look for incremental gains in what is partly a transitional year, while also being a year of opportunity. The club has nearly its entire 2009 starting lineup under contract, including its entire starting staff and at least seven of nine position players. For a team that won 95 games last season, that’s a recipe for success. Still, the American League gets more competitive every year, as the AL West, the Yankees, and our little brother Rays make it harder and harder to buy the Wild Card.

Pitcher #11: Byrd Over Delcarmen

With the Red Sox ALDS roster now available to the reading public, Tito has ended any speculation as to whether Manny Delcarmen would be carried over into the Division Series and postseason. Manny struggled for much of the latter part of the season, though his lousy September (7 IP, 14.14 ERA, 8 BB, 10 K, 4 HR) was undoubtedly the final nail in the coffin for what was at first a very promising year.

BOS 12, CLE 7: The Long and Winding Win

It may not have been the way that Clay Buchholz wanted to head into the post season, but a win is a win in professional sports, as the Red Sox took their 95th win of the season off of the Cleveland Indians, 12-7, on Sunday. Buchholz only lasted three innings, but the run support was there in droves, as J.D. Drew clocked two, Jed Lowrie belted a grand slam, and Alex Gonzalez made sure that everyone knew he was doing just fine with another home run, just to name a few.