David Ortiz: To Pinch Hit or Not To Pinch Hit?

After Sunday's win - on a day after a thrilling come from behind opening night, a day on which Josh Beckett signed a contract which gives the Red Sox baseball's best rotation through 2014, and a day during which we were all recovering from Neil Diamond jumping the shark - all anyone on WEEI could talk about was David Ortiz. As I sit down to write this column, Ortiz has just popped out to center with Kevin Youkilis on second base, in the eighth inning of a 5-4, Yankee-led ballgame. It's the second game of the season, and the second time Ortiz has come up against a lefty in a key situation. With Mike Lowell on the bench, it's worth exploring the question of whether to pinch hit for Ortiz or to let him settle in and see what happens.

Herb Brooks and Neil Diamond Stop By, Sox Take Season Opener

On a night when the Boston marketing department pulled out all the stops, the players on the field managed to match them every step of the way. There was no shortage of excitement in this one. From Neil Diamond's 8th inning appearance to Pedroia's two-run bomb, this game had everything and more. Even Herb Brooks and Pedro showed up which, early on, seemed to be the only exciting parts of the game. I, myself, was forced down the street to Buffalo Wild Wings before the game due to a blackout on MLBTV - missing the NESN broadcast - and jotting down game notes on a napkin. Though I try to avoid chain restaurants when watching the Red Sox, it was nice to see the Red Sox Faithful well-represented in Colorado - and just as intolerant as in New England of the crap Yankee fans will try to pull. Nonetheless, it was a classic, back-and-forth matchup that had plenty of surprises, late heroics, and everything you could want in an Opening Day salvo. Though cruising through the bottom half of the first inning, Beckett got roughed up early. Noticeably absent was his usual dominating stuff - which should have been an easy holdover from his strong spring. Having difficulty finding the plate and falling behind in the count often, he found himself "Yanked" after just 4.1 IP, walking three while striking out only one. Yielding five earned over his inefficient 94 pitches, the silver lining is that he wasn't hit as hard as the overall line suggests. Other than two second inning home runs, many of the Yankees' hits found holes or were just out of the reach of defenders - especially up the middle in the fourth...

And the Season Begins…

And the season begins… There’s no doubt the bureaucrats “got it right” on this one – pairing the league’s biggest rivals in the 2010 MLB opener. All signs point to a classic, fit with a marquee pitching matchup, palpable hatred on both sides, and the two best teams from the past decade kicking off the new one. Josh Beckett takes the hill against C.C. Sabathia as the two AL East juggernaughts begin their annual battle for divisional supremacy. Get to your TV at 8:00 pm sharp – or 6 pm if you’re like me in the Mountain Time Zone – and prepare to watch baseball at its finest. Keys of the Game Starting Pitcher Coming off a strong spring, striking out 22 in 19.1 innings while walking just 5, Beckett certainly has the edge over Sabathia, who has looked sluggish in 18.2 IP thus far (15 K, 8 BB). Though spring stats are rarely an indication of long-term success, they are a good indicator of a hurler’s readiness at the season’s onset. If C.C. continues to struggle with his command, he could be in for a long night. Expect Beckett to be sharp as the team gets off to an early lead in the first few innings.

Small samples and spring flings

Every spring, we get the March stars who try to earn a roster spot, but hopefully we all know by now that a month or so of at bats is not enough to tell anything.

Half the time, players are facing minor leaguers and the rest are players working on their approach. Any major league team who picks a player based on any statistic over another in March is only setting themselves up to be disappointed.

So far this spring, Josh Reddick has been tearing the cover off the ball with a .400/.429/.700 line in 40 ABs. That sure looks nice and Jeremy Hermedia is matching him with .400/.447/.571 -- but does anyone think either is a better option in right field than J.D. Drew who is currently hitting .154/.241/.231?

You might say that comparing them to an established player making $14 million this year is a silly comparison, but why would that be any different than saying Clay Buchholz is not ready to start this year based on 6.2 IP?

More evidence for a healthy Ortiz

An idea I’m mad I didn’t think to use as I was looking more at home run power and distance,…

This Thank You Is Huge

Our rivals/enemies/counterparts 210 miles to the South came out with their own bit of news on the heels of CC Sabathia's poor 2 inning performance today (who cares if it's spring stats, it's still fun to say!). With the contracts of future Hall of Famers Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera in their final year this season, there's been much talk about what kinds of contracts the Yankees should extend to two icons that have been with the franchise for close to 15 years. Let's take a snapshot of both players from the point they signed their 2001 contracts. Derek Jeter has averaged 18.9 million per year during his 10 year contract, reaching as high as 21 million this year. Since 2002, he's been worth 40.1 Wins Above Replacement, averaging about 132.2 million dollars of market value. During that same time period, Jeter has been paid 157 million dollars. While it's not the return on investment you should see from a player who never officially reached free agency, it's a testament to what Jeter has been able to accomplish over the years, as the odds normally say a large long term contract like this usually follow the path the Cubs are enduring with Soriano.

What about lineup protection?

It didn't take long for David Ortiz to ask for a "power" bat to protect him in the lineup after Manny Ramirez was traded. This was oddly timed last year as the team was returning Jason Bay to the lineup and was expecting big things from him. Now with Bay gone Ortiz has stuck to his mantra asking who is supposed to "protect" him now. This is a mental thing for David, but protection is a very misunderstood idea. The first thing I would hope is that Ortiz would take it upon himself to become the protection. To stop expecting it of others and say "I can hit 35 homers have a .400 OBP and carry this team". Outside of that we need to understand what is known about protection. Early studies looked at different numbers and found lineup protection to be largely a myth. Some were small size studies. Others said any effect they found was so small to be considered a myth. So we should just ignore Ortiz's statement and move on? Not yet.

Davey Beisbol

David Ortiz' last two seasons have been considered disappointments, there's no way to spin his plummeting OPS numbers. 2008 and 2009 were Ortiz' worst seasons since his final days in Minnesota, when he started to look more like a "never-will", rather than a burgeoning talent. Interestingly enough, I found something in his baseball-reference page that made me do a double take. David Ortiz' Hall Of Fame Monitor is extremely close to the range of "likely" Hall Of Famers. Not what I expected. I never quite considered David Ortiz a Hall of Fame candidate. For as happy as I was for Jim Rice, undoubtedly one of my childhood baseball heroes, I was never convinced he was a Hall of Famer either(actually, I'd still pick Dewey over him). I personally tend of have very high Hall of Fame standards, especially when a body of work without much domination is propped up by "Fear" or some other random reason. When I saw Ortiz' HOF Monitor score was a 92 (likely HOFers are 100+), I decided I wanted to investigate this further and wanted a player with similar Hall of Fame credentials to use as a comparison. The perfect player? Don Mattingly.

10 questions of regression for 2010

With trucks heading to Florida yesterday it's a good time to look at the questions for what the Red Sox hope will happen in 2010. With breakouts and new levels of performance there is always the possibility of regression. That can also include getting better as you return to the mean. What are the top ten possible regressions for 2010? 10. Can Manny Delcarmen find the plate - While Manny never had great control there was an alarming rate of walks in 2009. He walked 5.13 batters every nine innings or more than a batter every two innings. We found the signs of arm problems here and I think that with health he should be better, but a better walk rate is required for him to be a solid contributor.

Super Advertising Sporting Event Squares

In honor of the Super Bo.. um, Big Game today (please don't sue me, Roger Goodell!), Firebrand is going Vegas today and presenting some prop bets for the upcoming season. Which ones would you be laying money on or avoiding? 10-1: Tim Wakefield opens the season in the starting rotation. Wakefield made his feeling about deserving a spot in the rotation known recently, feeling he's paid his dues over the past decade.