The DL All-Stars

Kevin Youkilis left last night's game in the 4th inning with an ankle injury. At the moment, it appears he'll be fine -- the word out of Fenway is that he'll be in the lineup tonight. Still, the sight of Youk leaving the game yesterday must have caused remotes across New England to be flung in exasperated disgust as the injury bug appeared to claim another key player on this 2010 Red Sox team. In recounting the injuries that have plagued the club this year, it occurs to me that we could field a fairly talented club solely from our DL. In order to find out exactly how good, I decided to draw up a lineup (nine offensive positions, two starters, a setup man, and a closer) and see how well it would stack up given their projected 2010 WAR (I'm using CHONE projections for batters because they're the easiest to find, but the estimates shouldn't be too far afield; for pitchers it's a bit tricky, but I'll resort to using fangraphs.com's fan projections -- imperfect, but close enough). This is obviously a thought experiment more than anything else, but it's interesting to see exactly how much talent the Sox have lost so far this season.

Prospective Additions and the BoSox’ AL East Title Chances

There’s no doubt the Sox recent injuries have done a number on the club’s chances of winning the AL East. So we thought it would be interesting to uncover how bleak -- or rosy -- the those chances have become. Prior to the slew of injuries that befell Victor Martinez, Dustin Pedroia, and Jason Varitek, Baseball Prospectus had the Sox at about a 99-win team with an 853-702 scoring differential. That team, with the current standings, would have won the division about 38 percent of the time -- a solid second best to the Yankees' expected title rate of 45 percent. The Devil Rays take the cake about 18 percent of the time while the Blue Jays and Orioles are almost nowhere to be seen. But that was a different team. Injuries have decimated this club and with it, their chances at the division. So, we sought to quantify this question and see just how often the new lineup would win the AL East. We’ll spare you the nitty-gritty details, but the essentials are this: based on the expected run production of the new lineup, we simulated 10,000 “seasons,” the end result being an AL East championship probability. Further, we plugged in some of the club’s rumored trade targets and internal options to measure their effect on the team. Playing time estimates are rough estimates and are subject to change. Production estimates are based on Fangraphs.com’s CHONE projections. Below are the results.

The Replacement Brigade: Eric Patterson, Angel Sanchez, et al

It’s been another harrowing week for the Red Sox as yet another key starter has gone down to injury. With Dustin Pedroia sustaining a broken foot, the second baseman is expected to miss an estimated six weeks – forcing the Sox to scramble for a replacement due to their lack of infield depth. Elaborating on Pedroia’s importance would be superfluous. The former AL MVP is among the three most indispensible Red Sox on the active roster next to Kevin Youkilis and Jon Lester – if not the most important of the three. Considering the absence of any semblance of a Major Leaguer middle infielder in Boston’s stead, he is as good as irreplaceable. Still, the length of Pedroia’s injury is nearly as confounding as the injury itself. Assuming he returns along the proposed six-week time line, the Sox are in a purgatory of sorts when it comes to finding a replacement. On the one hand, they could trade for a replacement outside the organization - costing the team prospects in exchange for gaining about a win or two in Pedroia’s absence. On the other, they could tough it out with the inadequate options available.

Epstein’s Draft Hits… and Misses

With the 2010 Amateur Draft just around the corner (Monday June 7 through Wednesday, June 9), I wanted to spend this week's column looking back at the previous best and worst picks of the Theo Epstein era, an era in which the strength of the minor league system has been both a top priority for the team and an area of almost unparalleled success.

With seven drafts under their belts, this front office has taken the team from a roster of two homegrown regulars (Nomar Garciaparra and Trot Nixon) in 2003 to eight in 2010. Among them are a perennial Cy Young contender, a powerhouse corner infielder, a league champion base stealer, an elite closer, a man with a 100 mile an hour fastball, and an MVP. In addition, there is a new crop of talent maturing in the minors, with some players nearing the point where they will make a Major League contribution. So, not bad for a few years. After the jump, we'll take a look at the best and worst draft picks of the past seven years.

The intangible benefit of Pedroia

The Sox lineup, as always, is a meat grinder. They have four players in the top 20 in the American League in pitches seen per plate appearance (P/PA) and Pedroia ranks seventh at 4.27 (behind Youkilis who is fourth at 4.36) through 217 plate appearances (Victor Martinez is 11th at 4.12, J.D. Drew 13th at 4.11 while Marco Scutaro is 33rd at 3.92). Pedroia is also second in the league in total plate appearances at 217, behind only Denard Span of the Twins at 218, and leads the league in total pitches seen. Factoring in the entire majors, Youkilis ranks ninth and Pedroia 19th in P/PA.

Sitting in the No. 2 hole in the Sox lineup, Pedroia pesky plate appearances have a ripple down effect. Take for instance last Thursday when Boston beat Minnesota 6-2 on the strength of Jon Lester's nine-strikeout complete game. Pedroia was 0-3 with a walk and a run against the Twins and Francisco Liriano and was instrumental in knocking Minnesota's wily lefty out of the game after 4.2 innings with five earned runs on five hits and three walks. Pedroia was in the midst of a 4 for 39 slump at the time that spanned from May 12 to 23 before putting up three hits against the Rays on Monday.

Ryan Khoury may be small in stature, but he has a big game

Arguably ever since Ryan Khoury first put on a baseball uniform his life in the sport has been about overcoming odds and proving his critics wrong. Too short. Too slow. Too weak. Too something. Take your pick but at one time or another Khoury was labeled one -- if not all -- of the above.

Herb Brooks and Neil Diamond Stop By, Sox Take Season Opener

On a night when the Boston marketing department pulled out all the stops, the players on the field managed to match them every step of the way. There was no shortage of excitement in this one. From Neil Diamond's 8th inning appearance to Pedroia's two-run bomb, this game had everything and more. Even Herb Brooks and Pedro showed up which, early on, seemed to be the only exciting parts of the game. I, myself, was forced down the street to Buffalo Wild Wings before the game due to a blackout on MLBTV - missing the NESN broadcast - and jotting down game notes on a napkin. Though I try to avoid chain restaurants when watching the Red Sox, it was nice to see the Red Sox Faithful well-represented in Colorado - and just as intolerant as in New England of the crap Yankee fans will try to pull. Nonetheless, it was a classic, back-and-forth matchup that had plenty of surprises, late heroics, and everything you could want in an Opening Day salvo. Though cruising through the bottom half of the first inning, Beckett got roughed up early. Noticeably absent was his usual dominating stuff - which should have been an easy holdover from his strong spring. Having difficulty finding the plate and falling behind in the count often, he found himself "Yanked" after just 4.1 IP, walking three while striking out only one. Yielding five earned over his inefficient 94 pitches, the silver lining is that he wasn't hit as hard as the overall line suggests. Other than two second inning home runs, many of the Yankees' hits found holes or were just out of the reach of defenders - especially up the middle in the fourth...

Wagner to Atlanta, Pedroia to Short, Tito Really to the Tea Cabinet?

Pedroia to Short? Sometimes, the answer is so obvious that it was staring you in the face the entire time. Well, maybe Pedroia to short isn’t that obvious, but I’m surprised that it took this long for anyone to suggest the move at all, myself included. There are risks here, though. Pedroia was moved off short for a reason. Even during the minor leagues, many scouts liked him at the keystone long term. Now, three seasons into his major league career at second base, there is no saying what his arm or his range will look like across the diamond. Though he’s got great fielding skills for a second baseman, there are differences in reading grounders, going to the left up the middle, throwing distances, positional defensive standards, and a litany of other concerns when changing positions...

All Aughts Team of the Decade 2B: Dustin Pedroia

You think the shortstop carousel we've had since 2004 is frustrating? What about second base? Since 1992, only Scott Fletcher (2) and Jose Offerman (3) have been considered full-time Red Sox second basemen that served more than one year in said capacity. To suddenly end the decade with Dustin Pedroia manning the position for three years and having already captured a Rookie of the Year award, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, MVP and World Series ring, then... well, it kind of makes it a no-brainer that Dustin Pedroia is our All Aughts Team of the Decade second baseman.

Runnin’ Wild

Certain to be among the major themes in the ALDS are the Angels’ aggressiveness and superiority on the basepaths. Perennially among the league leaders in steals, the team placed third in 2009, behind Tampa Bay and Texas with 148 thefts. Anaheim will be sure to remind the Sox who’s boss every time their runners take first base. One of the fastest teams in the league, their lineup features multiple skilled runners. Chone Figgins leads the pack with 42 steals on the year, followed by Bobby Abreu at 30. Torii Hunter (18), Erick Aybar (14), Maicer Izturis (13), and Howie Kendrick (11) all cracked double digits in the steals column. Their bench also features quality pinch runners, including outfielder Reggie Willits, who nabbed 27 bases in 2007, along with 16 in 372 plate appearances between AAA and the MLB this season.