Money in the margins

What is the first thing a server asks you when sit down at a table? “What can I get you to drink?” Why is the desert menu usually separate from the rest of the menu? Because flour, sugar, syrup and water are cheap and not labor intensive. The profit on that steak may be 40 to 50 percent after labor is included in its preparation but the soda you have been chugging down in the mean time nets a 98 percent gain.

Where Theo Epstein truly makes his money is with the players on the margins, the soda and German chocolate cakes players who propel an 81 win team to a 96 win team.

Lester’s control issues continue

So far this young season Jon Lester has walked six batters in only 10 IP. While an extremely small sample it's a bit concerning. So far his fastball has been poor according to Fangraphs pitch values with a -2.19 runs per 100 pitches. One change I see right now is a sinker being classified by Pitch F/x, but that could easily be a slight change from his two-seam fastball. The one pitch I do see missing is his slider, which was up to 10 percent of his pitches last year. This year though he has yet to throw one according to Pitch F/x.

4/12 Online Seats Game Thread: Red Sox Open Outdoors in Minnesota

The Boston Red Sox hope to sour the Twins' home opener celebration, as Jon Lester looks to right his opening week wrongs.

4/6 Online Seats Game Thread: Boston Red Sox Look to Keep the Yankees Down

After an opening night for the ages, the Boston Red Sox under the wing of Jon Lester, will aim to clip the Yankees' wings even further, sending the World Champions to an 0-2 start.

10 questions of regression for 2010

With trucks heading to Florida yesterday it's a good time to look at the questions for what the Red Sox hope will happen in 2010. With breakouts and new levels of performance there is always the possibility of regression. That can also include getting better as you return to the mean. What are the top ten possible regressions for 2010? 10. Can Manny Delcarmen find the plate - While Manny never had great control there was an alarming rate of walks in 2009. He walked 5.13 batters every nine innings or more than a batter every two innings. We found the signs of arm problems here and I think that with health he should be better, but a better walk rate is required for him to be a solid contributor.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade SP4: Jon Lester

Jon Lester, entering his age 26 season, is a prime candidate to be named a starting pitcher of the 2010-19 Team of the Decade, which would mean he was named to back-to-back Team of Decades. Drafted in the second round of the 2002 draft, Lester methodically rose up the minor leagues (Fire Brand archive: Not so Minor: Players on the Rise, 10/10/04) and prospect rankings, going so far as to be included in the A-Rod megatrade that never was prior to the 2004 season. I speak, of course, of Manny Ramirez and Lester heading to Texas for Alex Rodriguez. With respect to Lester, I think all of us feel we dodged a bullet there.

Owned in Anaheim

As often happens when the Red Sox venture out West for a playoff series (as often happens), there's no more painful post to write than the one scheduled to hit the wires the morning following a late night start like we had in Game One of the ALDS - except of course the post following a game that saw the Red Sox hit their side of the Win Probability ledger only for one fleeting at bat the night prior. That chart pretty well sums up the Red Sox offense all night against Angels starter John Lackey; flatline.

10/8: The first marble

ALDS Game One Preview

With the opening pitch set for 9:37 pm, Eastern Standard Time, the Sox and Angels get ready to kick off their leg of the American League playoffs. The short-series ALDS will rely heavily on the opening game, as a 1-0 lead in a Best of 5 is better than finding money. With Beckett going up against Jered Weaver in Game Two, an opening win by Boston would put quite a damper on Anaheim’s plans. The first game features a battle of staff leaders. Sox Ace Jon Lester goes up against Angels’ number one John Lackey. Lester and the Sox have the definite edge in this one, as Lester has turned himself into an early Cy Young candidate for 2010, while Lackey has seen the erosion of his skills to a certain extent. Jon Lester The consummate field general, Angels Manager Mike Scioscia was likely up late last night game planning for the openeras his lineup is a very interesting match for Lester. With the option to bat as many as eight players right-handed (Anaheim has four switch hitters: Izturis, Morales, Aybar, and Figgins), Lester’s prominent reverse-platoon splits may give Scioscia pause when instructing his batters to hit right-handed. Lester’s pronounced splits have actually given the edge to left-handers this season, as they went a combined .257/.305/.411 against the ace, while righties compiled a .237/.299/.350 clip.

So, who’s winning this Sox/Angels battle?

The Red Sox are set to do battle with the Angels later this week to decide who gets to play for the American League pennant. Boston and Los Angeles are certainly familiar with each other, having done battle in the 2004, '07 and '08 DCS. In fact, Boston went 9-1 in those games and the Angels' futility extends all the way bac to 1986 and Donnie Moore. Do the Angels have a chance to put their Boston voodoo behind them or will the Sawx manhandle L.A. all the way towards what seems to be an inevitable date with the Evil Empire? Read on to see pitching breakdowns, a look at the offense and defense, musings on hometown advantages, and the official prediction.