Know Thyself 2009: Boston Red Sox

The 2009 Boston Red Sox are in the final stages of preparing for what is certain to be an entertaining and exciting season. The spring is finally behind us, the roster is set and the team is moving northward to christen Citi Field with some Major League talent.

Now all the roster moves are behind us and the questions move from the "who" of the offseason as they shift to the analysis of performance and the "what" of baseball. This past week has been spent looking at the competition in the American League East, and stiff competition it is. In most cases, the Red Sox had the position by position edge over each team from the Yankees to the Orioles and it should come as no surprise, in that light, that the staff here at Fire Brand gives the Red Sox the edge to win the AL East in 2009.

Today we summarize much of what we've talked about in our "For Better or Worse" series this offseason as we go player by player through the Red Sox roster and prepare for live baseball next week.

Red Sox Madness Final Four: Ellsbury vs. Pedroia

After two grueling rounds of match ups, we now know the Final Four contestants in the first annual Red Sox Madness tournament. In a late run, (primarily thanks to Paul and I's get out the vote campaign for Jon Lester in last night's podcast), Jon Lester eeked out the closest battle of the tourney yet over Kevin Youkilis 45-42. Lester will battle fellow #1 seed and starting pitcher Josh Beckett in the second of our Final Four matchups.

The top half of the draw pits the top two hitters in the Red Sox lineup. Which tablesetter's success means more to the Red Sox chances in 2009? Is it the upstart #3 seed Jacoby Ellsbury or the reigning AL MVP and #1 seed Dustin Pedroia?

Remember, the simple question is "who's success is more important to the overall success of the Boston Red Sox in 2009?" Vote away after the jump!

Know Thine Enemy 2009: New York Yankees

The other half of the best rivalry in sports, The New York Yankees. The Bronx Bombers "only" ended up with 89 victories last season. And the key players they inked this past off-season, have them looking incredibly strong on paper for this upcoming 2009 season.

The philosophy about building a strong farm was basically put on hold for a year. But Brian Cashman made some nice maneuvers, and the result--whether it was intentional or not--allowed the Yankees to lose their first three picks this year. And that is better than losing a first-round pick in three consecutive seasons, of course.

Red Sox Madness: Lester vs Youkilis

In preparation for the best two weeks in sports, starting with the Final Four, running through the Masters with a little thing called Opening Day sandwiched in the middle, we idly pass the time with our Red Sox Madness tournament. As expected, Josh Beckett joined the upstart Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia in the Final Four. Today the final region battles to join them.

In what is expected to be the most heated battle of the second round, #2 seed Kevin Youkilis battles #1 seed Jon Lester for the right to meet Beckett with a trip to the finals on the line.

Remember, the simple question is "who's success is more important to the overall success of the Boston Red Sox in 2009?" Vote away after the jump!

Defensive Misplays and the Sox that excel at them

Defensive Runs show how good a player is at preventing runs. But there's more than that that goes into fielding. What about mistake-free plays?

You would think that preventing runs and mistake-free plays go hand in hand, but not quite.

In the Fielding Bible Vol. II in which I received today, Bill James has unveiled publicly what I feel is a revolutionary statistic: Defensive Misplays.

is it any accident they're aggressive about playing Ellsbury, acquired Kotsay, resigned Lowell and brought Bay in?

Which TV characters resemble Red Sox players?

I was thinking about the multitude of TV shows that I watch and I thought it would be pretty funny and cool to pair up who I think represents a certain character best on the Red Sox. I'm not limiting this to one show (but am limiting it to shows currently on the air), so... let's check out my comparisons. In the comments, leave your own!

Fireside Chats #32: Where a Keurig machine is our answer to greenies

Paul and Tim discuss the merits of the Keurig coffee machine, the contracts of Kevin Youkilis and Jonathan Papelbon, and look at the early returns from the infield in the 2009 "For Better or Worse" series on Fire Brand of the American League. Oh...and how could we forget banging our heads against the Varitek wall a few more times before a final decision is made.

All that and more on Episode #32 of Fireside Chats on MVN!

Youkilis signs four-year deal worth over $40 million

Peter Gammons is reporting that Sox first-baseman Kevin Youkilis has signed a four-year pact worth over $40 million, or over $10 million per year. The deal includes an option for a fifth year.

Youk was slated to be a free agent after 2010. This keeps him in Sox red (presumably) until at least 2012.

It's quite a deal considering Youkilis has outproduced Mark Teixeira (yes, it's true, according to an GM and some metrics) the last two years.

What will Youk and Pap command in arb?

Jayson Stark's latest piece has a look out on arbitration. Here are the relevant pieces:

There's one more groundbreaking case on this list, and Papelbon is it. From every indication, Papelbon will wind up with the highest salary ever by a closer with three years of service time. The only mystery is: How much?

"This one perplexes me," one NL executive said. "This guy has been so good, and that team has such deep resources, I don't know what I'm missing. Why haven't they signed him? If you're trying to pick out the next Mariano Rivera, wouldn't it be him? Plus, he's a guy who he handles that whole Boston scene so well."

All true. Yet this has the potential to be a tricky, maybe even explosive, case.

Papelbon has spent the past three years willingly sacrificing himself for the greater good, allowing the Red Sox to define his role outside the boundaries of common modern-day closer ground rules. His 22 saves of four outs or more since 2006 rank second only to Rivera's, and his 35 appearances of four outs or more rank third among closers, behind Rivera and J.J. Putz.

But now, in return, Papelbon is looking for a reward for his sacrifice, his workload and the toll that workload could take on his potential career longevity. The result is a philosophical difference about his value that the Red Sox haven't been able to resolve. You wouldn't think either side would want this to reach a hearing room. But follow this case carefully.

The Red Sox have had a lot of success convincing their players to take less money for the sheer joy of playing in Boston. But Papelbon and Youkilis are two who haven't been willing to play that game. Yet. One GM wonders whether Youkilis (now two years from free agency) is a victim of his do-it-ugly persona: "Teixeira gets his money because he produces AND he looks really good doing it. But if you look at the last two years, the guy who has outproduced him is Youkilis."

Using xBABIP and IF/F to predict some Sox’s 2009 numbers

A month ago, Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix collaborated together to come up with a new statistic -- xBABIP. For batters, a .300 BABIP is not a reliable benchline (as it is for pitchers), nor is there one standard benchline across all batters. They have to be personalized, which Dutton and Bendix did.

David Ortiz looks to be in line for a monster regression to the mean... except in this case, regression is a good thing. You can expect a .300 average as a reasonable forecast next year for Big Papi.

Check out the numbers behind the reasoning for Big Papi, plus some interesting numbers on Jason Bay, Julio Lugo and others...