The Case For Optimism

Monday night, we got a glimpse of what this team could look like with things going right. Clay Buchholz put together another solid outing, further cementing himself as this season’s most reliable starter, and the offense put on a show — especially during a long 6th inning that saw seven Sox runners cross the plate. The question is this: was what we saw last night something we can expect to see again, or was it simply a reminder of how frustrating this season has become?

I was a huge fan of this particular iteration of the club going into 2010 — probably the most excited I’ve been about a Sox team since 2007. Unsurprisingly, the abysmal start has dampened my optimism pretty significantly, but it hasn’t yet killed it. I still think that by the end of the season we’ll see a team that more closely resembles the one that decimated the Angels than the one that lay down in front of the Orioles. Here’s why.

Poll: Early Season Stories.

As the season settles in, which Red Sox story has your eye?

That is $39.5 million in wasted talent

After John Lackey's $18.7 million contract, the next three highest paid Sox are J.D. Drew ($14 million), David Ortiz ($13 million) and Mike Lowell ($12.5 million). So far those three hitters have a combined (through Friday) for 22 hits in 121 at-bats with 16 walks and two home runs. That comes out to a baseline average of .181 and a .262 on-base percentage.

On the advanced side of the Hall of Metrics they are averaging a weighted Runs Created plus (wRC+) of 65.666 which is actually a little misleading because Lowell actually has a very decent wRC+ number of 121, albeit in only 20 official at bats this year. The average wRC+ between Ortiz and Drew is 38 (44 for Ortiz, 32 for Drew). Conversely, runs are hard to create when you are not getting on base and the mean between the three players weighted on-base average is .281 again with Lowell skewing the numbers with a .361 wOBA while Ortiz and Drew are at .251 and .233, respectively.

Breaking Up Is Hard To Do

Today, Mike Lowell talked to the press about his role and future with the Boston Red Sox. Lowell wanted to reach out to the fanbase after his trade to the Texas Rangers failed to materialize in the offseason because of injury. Mike Lowell has comes to terms with the business of baseball, and that his past services to the ballclub shouldn't be overlooked, but also shouldn't prevent the club from continuing to improve position by position. He wanted to pass this along to the fans as well, to not look at his situation with any bitterness or contempt for the front office's decisions.

Wrapping Up the Offseason

Spring Training is only a day away, and it's been a busy offseason for the Red Sox in 2010. The team struggled in the playoffs last year after putting up another solid regular season; tweaks were made to sew up the loose ends on the team's defensive deficiencies. Another front line starter was brought into the fold. Is Lackey here to supplant Josh Beckett in 2011 and beyond, or simply be another high priced compliment to the rotation? With the Olympics currently underway, let's review what's happened this offseason, and see what moves the teams made deserved a spot on the podium. Third Base: Adrian Beltre replaces Mike Lowell While the Lowell trade was derailed by an injury the fan base is still scratching their heads over (was Lowell hiding it, was the organization?), the acquisition of Beltre signaled the end of Lowell's regular playing time. Arguably the most talented defensive third basemen in baseball, Beltre brings his slick glove to Fenway to provide the teams with the defensive wins they had lacked all last season. Even returning just to his 2008 level of offensive woudl make Beltre a 4 WAR player, a huge bonus for the Red Sox with minimal risk.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade Honorable Mention: Mike Lowell

Mike Lowell was the proud winner of the All-Aughts Team of the Decade honorable mention at 30 percent of the vote, and its easy to see why. After all, Lowell not only has provided above-average offensive seasons each year he wore the Boston uniform (and sans 2009, excellent fielding seasons) but his character is off the charts and he nabbed the 2007 World Series MVP award. Lowell came to Boston after being exiled from Florida following a year where he posted an obscene (in a bad way) .658 OPS, showing no ability to make contact and a lack of power. For the Red Sox to get ace Josh Beckett, Lowell was forced upon them. No one seriously thought Lowell would be worth his salt despite it being just one year. Lowell found Fenway Park to his liking in 2006 albeit on a team that collapsed late and missed the playoffs. His 47 doubles were a career high, and he set a career high the following year in a different category: RBI. That was the year of 2007, when Lowell stepped up amongst injury and attrition -- 31 games batting fourth, 17 fifth and 101 sixth -- and became a feared middle of the order hitter. His doubles sank to 37, but he popped 21 home runs and hit .324, the first and only time his batting average has been over .300 in a season.

Super Advertising Sporting Event Squares

In honor of the Super Bo.. um, Big Game today (please don't sue me, Roger Goodell!), Firebrand is going Vegas today and presenting some prop bets for the upcoming season. Which ones would you be laying money on or avoiding? 10-1: Tim Wakefield opens the season in the starting rotation. Wakefield made his feeling about deserving a spot in the rotation known recently, feeling he's paid his dues over the past decade.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade Honorable Mention Vote

Now that the All-Aughts Team of the Decade roster is complete, it's time to fill out the two remaining spots available: honorable mention and dishonorable mention. We're tackling the former today. The Red Sox have players worthy of being immortalized on the Team of the Decade even though they didn't crack the roster. Below are the five candidates eligible for honorable mention. Please take your time and vote for the candidate you feel belongs on the roster, either at the end of this article or on the right sidebar, near the top.

One $9 Million Question Answered, One More Arises

Adrian Beltre, The Player This off-season has had quite an emphasis on trusting higher-order statistical metrics as, surely, both Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre do not fit the conventional mold for key cogs on championship caliber teams. Two players whose values lie predominantly with their defensive production, 2010 will be a trial by fire for the front office’s new-fangled policy of relying on fielding. Sabermetricians worldwide rejoice at this move towards the mainstream (myself included). As a Red Sox fan, however, I find myself wishing some other team were the guinea pig. Which begs the question: what kind of player are the Red Sox getting with Adrian Beltre? A Move Within a Move Maybe that last point runs contrary to the whole business side of sports – that, because you pay these players so much, they should do whatever the hell you tell ‘em to do. He should be the good soldier, not reply, and go into camp as Beltre’s backup. If he whines about not playing, too bad! Go get a day job! Though, in reality, that’s not the way things work. Aging veterans who have earned their stripes always get traded - and this may very well be the last bastion of humanity left in the business side of sports...

The Red Sox’s Christmas List

Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, Happy Holidays to everyone! While I celebrate both Christmas and Hannukah, there's no denying the holiday that stops America in its tracks -- that's Christmas. That's why I've chosen Christmas as the holiday of choice to reveal certain Red Sox personnel's holiday gift lists that were acquired in some unseemly ways. And away we go...