4/9 Online Seats Game Thread: Sox play catch up in KC

Tim Wakefield is set to enter his 16th season with the Boston Red Sox against the Kansas City Royals, to kick off the first away game of the 2010 season.

Small samples and spring flings

Every spring, we get the March stars who try to earn a roster spot, but hopefully we all know by now that a month or so of at bats is not enough to tell anything.

Half the time, players are facing minor leaguers and the rest are players working on their approach. Any major league team who picks a player based on any statistic over another in March is only setting themselves up to be disappointed.

So far this spring, Josh Reddick has been tearing the cover off the ball with a .400/.429/.700 line in 40 ABs. That sure looks nice and Jeremy Hermedia is matching him with .400/.447/.571 -- but does anyone think either is a better option in right field than J.D. Drew who is currently hitting .154/.241/.231?

You might say that comparing them to an established player making $14 million this year is a silly comparison, but why would that be any different than saying Clay Buchholz is not ready to start this year based on 6.2 IP?

Tim Wakefield returns to the bullpen

While Tim Wakefield continues to stand for a spot in the starting rotation as he continues to try for the wins record as a Red Sox pitcher. At this date the Red Sox are ready to give the five starter spots to Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka. That leaves Wakefield asking for a job that doesn't exist right now. It's always possible that an injury or other change opens a spot, but I want to suggest why Wakefield might be better served as a reliever. Since 1993 Wakefield has made 62 appearances as a reliever with an ERA of 3.75 in that role. While that sample size is fairly small there is plenty to see that is encouraging. The most obvious change is a spike in strikeouts, which occurs when most pitchers change from starter to reliever. His K/9 in the starter role has been 5.9, but in the reliever role he holds a 7.9. The benefits of a knuckle ball pitcher are a drop in BABIP, which he has a consistent rate of .275 as a starter and a reliever. This benefit will be beneficial as his K/BB was a poor 1.76 as a starter and a slightly above average 2.16 as a reliever. This helps him beat his FIP in both roles.

Super Advertising Sporting Event Squares

In honor of the Super Bo.. um, Big Game today (please don't sue me, Roger Goodell!), Firebrand is going Vegas today and presenting some prop bets for the upcoming season. Which ones would you be laying money on or avoiding? 10-1: Tim Wakefield opens the season in the starting rotation. Wakefield made his feeling about deserving a spot in the rotation known recently, feeling he's paid his dues over the past decade.

PECOTA confirms our thoughts on 2010 and Clay Buchholz

This week the PECOTA projections were run through with depth charts and attempted to project final standings based on opening day expected rosters. Obviously trades, injuries and breakout/slumps will change these results, but so far they have the Red Sox at 95-67 finishing in second place. Of course the big surprise is who is in first. PECOTA projects Tampa Bay to finish at 96-66 winning the East with the Red Sox as the favorite for the wild card. So where are the Yankees? Third place with a record of 93-69 and out of the playoffs. OK so 3 wins separating the three is not something to bet on, but confirms what we have said all along. The Red Sox have changed their strengths, but maintained their ability to win 95 games and make the playoffs.

Tim Wakefield to be full-time member of the rotation?

In several pieces (here's the ESPN Boston one) over the last couple days, it has been made clear by Tim Wakefield that he expects to serve as a full-time member of the Red Sox rotation. Coming off of back surgery in October, he expects to enter spring training healthy. This is a situation that is going to have to be resolved one way or the other. Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and John Lackey aren't going anywhere and it's difficult to imagine Daisuke Matsuzaka not being in the rotation. All indications are that the club is moving forward with Clay Buchholz as a long-term, permanent member of the rotation as well. So... where's the give? Where's the solution. Something's gotta happen.I don't see any way that Wakefield doesn't open the season in the bullpen (barring injury). Anyone have any thoughts?

The state of the bullpen

This offseason has centered mostly around the improved defense and addition of John Lackey to our rotation. The bullpen though has been largely left to small moves to patch up the back and look for solid years from the rest. As it stands the pen returns Jonathon Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen. The starting rotation currently has 6 solid starters with Tim Wakefield as a long reliever and Boof Bonser as a long shot to squeeze in. They have also added Brian Shouse, Edwin Moreno, Jorge Sosa, Scott Atchinson, Robert Manuel and Ramon A. Ramirez. The team entered 2009 with 12 starting pitchers including 5 starters and 7 relievers. Let's assume they enter 2010 with the same numbers, but we'll label the last reliever as on the bubble as he could be a minor league option. Sure Things Closer and setup are solid with Papelbon and Bard continuing were they left 2009. We have had plenty of discussions about these two here, here, here and here. While Bard still has some questions and his projections show he isn't quite ready to be be a closer, but a solid setup man. His CHONE projection calls for a 3.48 ERA and only a 2.09 K/BB. I have some doubts about that K/BB and think he can be much better as does MARCEL and Bill James at 2.53 and 2.80 respectively.

The Red Sox’s Christmas List

Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, Happy Holidays to everyone! While I celebrate both Christmas and Hannukah, there's no denying the holiday that stops America in its tracks -- that's Christmas. That's why I've chosen Christmas as the holiday of choice to reveal certain Red Sox personnel's holiday gift lists that were acquired in some unseemly ways. And away we go...

Reviving Michael Bowden’s prospect status

Bowden has lost a bit of his "prospect" status, but he was ranked very high on lists just last year. He continues this year at Minor League Ball being ranked fifth on the Red Sox with a B Grade. He has a comparison of Jeff Suppan, but that is still very valuable. I think his ceiling is higher and PECOTA has his top comp as Kevin Slowey.

John Lackey joins Boston in curious move

By all indications, the Red Sox will have John Lackey serving as their No. 3 starter this upcoming season. The right-hander inked a five-year, $85 million deal which is exactly market value for his services. Lackey is a solid signing for the Red Sox, as long as they don't attempt to stretch him into an ace. The 31-year old is in the mold of Josh Beckett, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis: hard-nosed, fiery people who want to be out there every day kicking butt and taking names. The five years is a point of contention. Boston has always been steadfast in its refusal to commit extended years to a pitcher. This is Theo Epstein's first five-year commitment to a free agent pitcher. Jon Lester was his first five-year pitcher, but of course, Lester is six years younger with three arbitration years factored into the contract -- so really, only two free agent years were bought out. That five-year commitment to Lackey scares me, especially when the final year will be when Lackey is 35 years old. Coupled with his injury red flags and contact numbers, and I can't really figure out what Boston saw in Lackey. Does he have a good chance of repeating his 2009 numbers over the next five years? Yes. But there is an equal chance of something going horribly awry. It doesn't seem characteristic of Theo to commit this risk to a pitcher. To a position player, sure. But he's been very good on the pitching ledger, so he's stuck his neck out a bit with this pact.