We can look at the losses of Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron all we like, but the truth is the Red Sox offense did a fine job in 2010. The Sox to this point have scored the third most runs in baseball behind the Yankees and Rays. However, the Sox have also given up the ninth most runs in baseball. Defense has played a role in this season as the Sox have the tenth worst ER/R ratio in baseball. The Padres, Twins, Reds, Rays and Giants have the best ER/R ratios in baseball, in that order. The Yankess rank sixth best. I think that just about sums up the whole “pitching and defense win championships” saying. While the defense may be a topic of discussion down the road, today we are going to look at the bullpen, which has not been a strong point for the Sox this season. However, defense does play a role in the effectiveness of a bullpen and it goes beyond earned runs to runs or errors. We’ll try and forget for a minute what the results have been for the Red Sox relievers and focus instead on their peripheral stats like strikeout and walk rate.
When one hears the term upside with regard to the Sox bullpen, it’s almost impossible not to think of the name Daniel Bard. With his upper 90’s fastball and sharp slider, Bard has established himself as a key piece to the back-end of the Sox pen. There has been debate already of whether or not the Sox should trade Papelbon this offseason and I gave my take on the matter a few weeks ago. Regardless of what happens this offseason, Bard has shown the potential to be the Sox closer of the future. Still, his command has been on and off all season and his K/9 hasn’t been over nine since April. The upside is there, but he’ll need to improve his command to become a top notch ninth inning arm.
After three solid years in the Sox pen, Hideki Okajima regressed big time in 2010. Oki was never a hard thrower, but this season the command disappeared and the strikeouts suffered as well. He’ll be 35 in 2011, so there is very little, if any, upside left in his game.
Scott Atchison has thrown 54.2 innings for the Sox in 2010 while posting a 3.62 ERA and decent 2.6 BB/9, but his 6.4 K/9 is well below average for a reliever. His seven home runs allowed are a problem and line up with his track record. Also 35 in 2011, there is no real upside here.
6’6” lefty Dustin Richardson has big upside and a minor league track record of big strikeout numbers, but he has yet to be able to harness his stuff. Richardson struck out over 11 batters per nine innings at triple-A this season and has an 8.3 K/9 in 13 innings with the Sox this season, however he walked over six per nine at triple-A and has allowed 11 free passes in 13 innings with the Sox. While there is plenty of upside here, there is also a ton of risk and a track record of poor control, sort of like a recent call-up by the name of Rich Hill.
Moving between the rotation and the pen at Pawtucket, Michael Bowden could battle for a bullpen spot in 2011. His strikeout potential is not big, but his command has potential to improve in a constant bullpen role, which could make him a solid sixth inning option.
Jason Rice has shown good strikeout potential since being converted to a full time reliever in 2009. While his command has been hit and miss (4.5 BB/9), he posted a 2.85 ERA and 10.6 K/9 at Pawtucket this season. 25-year-old converted catcher Robert Coello posted an 11.1 K/9 at Pawtucket, but walked over four per nine as well. An adjustment in command would go a long way toward making these two players major league ready. Fernando Cabrera continues to put up solid strikeout numbers as well, but has a long track record both at the major league and minor league levels of control problems.
Recently acquired Matt Fox has a very consistent track record in the minors, but his career 7.8 K/9 in the minors won’t likely translate to anything more than average at the big league level.
Junichi Tazawa continues to rehab from Tommy John surgery and may end up moving back to the rotation, but if the Sox need a quick fix in the bullpen his strikeout potential and three-pitch arsenal might play well in a relief role.
Conclusion
What we have here is a mixed bag and not necessarily a good one. While there is some strikeout upside on the Sox young arms, they all have issues with allowing base runners. Papelbon should be back as the closer next season and Bard will likely resume eighth inning duties, but beyond those two, there are a bunch of question marks. Clearly pitching and defense have let the Sox down in 2010. The organization will have to make some moves this offseason, especially in the pen, to ensure that doesn’t happen again in 2011.