2011 Projections: Kevin Youkilis

July 10, 2010 - Toronto, Ontario, Canada - 10 July 2010: Red Sox first baseman Kevin Youkilis.

Over at my site, fantasybaseball365.com, I do an annual set of projections for the upcoming season. While every team is covered over there, here is where I’ll be focusing on the Red Sox player projections. These projections are done by hand, meaning I have no computer generated system in place. This way I am able to take into account factors like injury, position change, playing time change, etc. I’ll cover the whole Red Sox roster as we head toward spring training.

Kevin Youkilis 2011 Projection: 32-years-old on opening day 2011.

    AB    AVG   OBP    SLG    OPS    HR      R    RBI    SB
    511    .302   .403    .556   .959     25     93     90      4

This one was one of the easy ones. Only a thumb injury kept Youk from finishing another steady season. If there was any worry, it would be over a sharp drop in line drive rate to around 16 percent in 2010. That drop, however, looks to be an outlier compared to the rest of his track record. His age (32) suggests that he won’t likely get much better than he already is, which is not a bad thing at all given his production over the last few seasons.

A healthy Youk should once again be worth five-plus WAR in 2011 and be a key piece to the Red Sox chances of contending for the AL East title.

Categories: Boston Red Sox Kevin Youkilis

Charlie first started writing about baseball back in 2008 when he opened Fantasy Baseball 365. Since graduating college with a degree in English, he has spent time coaching baseball as well as working in several minor league front offices. He also writes for The Outside Corner and contributes to Project Prospect and ESPN's Sweet Spot. Writer from August 3, 2010 - May 6, 2012

5 Responses to “2011 Projections: Kevin Youkilis” Subscribe

  1. Darryl Johnston October 7, 2010 at 10:29 AM #

    I know counting stats are subjective to a lot of external factors, but I can't see how if Youkilis is hitting cleanup for the Boston Red Sox and accumulates nearly 600 ABs, that he doesn't have 100+ RBI.

    I'd more inclined to project Youkilis, given the history, to have close to 525 ABs and 90+ RBI. But if he does stay healthy for a full year and pushes 600 AB, I think 100 RBI on the Red Sox is a layup for a run-creating cleanup hitter.

    • Charlie Saponara October 7, 2010 at 11:33 AM #

      I agree with your point, but he hasn’t reached 600 AB’s in his career (thanks in part to a good walk rate). I actually screwed up on that a little. The 591 is plate appearances. His at bats should be 511 (I made the change).

  2. Darryl Johnston October 7, 2010 at 11:44 AM #

    Ahhh ok, that makes sense. Thanks!

  3. Lee Perrault October 7, 2010 at 3:33 PM #

    I agree with your point, but he hasn’t reached 600 AB’s in his career (thanks in part to a good walk rate). I actually screwed up on that a little. The 591 is plate appearances. His at bats should be 511 (I made the change).

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