Dice-K 2011 projection:

Where do we go from here?

In his four seasons with the Red Sox, Dice-K has yet to put up a sub 4.00 FIP. Sure, he had a 2.80 ERA in 2008, but there were warning signs left and right screaming FLUKE! In the seasons since 2008, Dice-K has been a frustrating pitcher to watch (that’s putting it nicely).

Dice-K has seen a regression in his strikeout rate in each of his major league seasons. He has also failed to make 30 starts since his first season with the Sox. If the Sox are going to win the East in 2011, they’ll need more from Dice-K.

Back in September of last year, I took a look at some ways to fix Dice-K. These were merely my opinions based on what I had seen from him during the regular season as well as what insights the stats uncovered. In particular, I suggested that he throw more cutters, as that is a pitch that has consistently been an asset.

While the problem lies mostly in Dice-K’s inability to work to left-handed hitters, he may not be maximizing his arsenal to righties either. Dice-K uses an array of fastballs, but one pitch in particular has yielded the best results, his cutter. This season, the cut-fastball has been used about 18 percent of the time and has been thrown for a strike about 75 percent of the time to righties. Compare that to his four-seamer, which is used the majority of the time, but thrown for a strike only about 63 percent of the time to righties. Not only does Dice-K throw his cutter for strikes more often, but he gets righties to chase it more frequently and swing and miss about seven percent more often than when he throws his four-seamer.

The bottom line is that Dice-K needs to change something, because what he continues to do year-after-year is wearing Red Sox Nation thin. Without any drastic effort to change his approach, I can’t project much more than another 4-plus FIP season.