Boston Red Sox Jim Rice and Pittsburgh Pirates Dave Parker, 1979, Sports Illustrated
This summer the Red Sox will kick off the annual Interleague tour by hosting the Chicago Cubs at Fenway Park. The matchup is sure to draw a lot of attention given how long it’s been since the Cubbies came to Boston.
Interleague play has been favorable to Boston since MLB began the cross-league games. Since 1997, the Red Sox are 140-107 winning more than 57% of Interleague games. Last year the Red Sox went 13-5 against the Senior circuit.
Some folks are mixed on Interleague games in general. On one hand, you get to see great events (like the Cubs at Fenway) that otherwise would not occur and the ticket sales certainly favor the AL/NL matchups with attendance increasing during these series.
But others dislike seeing AL pitchers trying to hit when their own league’s rules do not require them to. The risk for injury (or perceived risk) is higher as well as the ‘natural’ rival pairings cause some unfairness as some teams get to repeatedly play bad ones while their division rivals get tough matchups. (i.e St Louis/Kansas City vs. Milwaukee/Minnesota).
Regardless of your position on this mid-summer tour of the other league, the games will begin in late May. Here are the Red Sox 2011 opponents and how they look in the frozen month before Spring training begins.
San Diego
Let’s start off with the San Diego Padres and thank them for Adrian Gonzalez!
Now certainly the Padres received a substantial return from the Red Sox in exchange for Gonzo. That package included the Red Sox #1 prospect right-handed pitcher Casey Kelly, first baseman Anthony Rizzo and outfielder Reymond Fuentes.
But the Gonzo deal was just the tip of the iceberg for Padres GM Jed Hoyer. San Diego has made a ton of transactions in the offseason in an effort to improve their team in a fiscally-sound manner, agreeable to the limited payroll.
The Padres have signed a shortstop (Jason Bartlett), a second baseman (Orlando Hudson), and a first baseman (Brad Hawpe), which completely revamps the infield. Hawpe is a far cry from Gonzalez, but has plenty of power and a good walk rate. He strikes out at a 30% clip but the move is a shrewd one.
Bartlett and Hudson are nice upgrades over Miguel Tejada and David Eckstein.
It didn’t stop there either.
Hoyer added RHP Aaron Harang, RHP Dustin Mosely, and reliever Chad Qualls and traded for what he hopes is a franchise center fielder in Cameron Maybin.
The team is healthy going into the 2011 season, but the chances of them winning 90 games again is probably pretty slim. But the architecture of the franchise is starting to shape up nicely and Hoyer appears to truly understand how to play small-market baseball.
Red Sox will face the Padres at Fenway Park, June 20-22.
Notable Additions: Cameron Maybin, Casey Kelly, Jason Bartlett, Orlando Hudson, Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes
Notable Losses: Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Tejada, Yorvit Torrealba
2011 Predicted Record: 83-79
Philadelphia Phillies
Philly is Boston’s ‘natural rival’ and we have the privilege and pleasure (?) of playing them year in and out. Only problem is they are the best team in the National League. I like that the Red Sox are always battle-tested by facing the best, but it would be nice if Philly could take a year off.
Not in 2011 though. The Phillies surprised all of baseball when they swooped in and become the winners of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. Philadelphia now has the best rotation in baseball and is anchored by Roy Halladay who is followed by two more aces in Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt. Their 4th starter is Cole Hamels for crissakes. Crazy.
The only hardship the Phillies faced in the offseason was losing Jayson Werth to the division rival, Washington Nationals. ‘Losing’ Werth is an exaggeration though because the organization had no intention of paying Werth the albatross of a contract that Washington gave him. Besides, the Phillies have outfield uber-prospect Domonic Brown ready to go.
I fully expect this team to mow down the National League this summer and win close 100 games. They will probably also have three or four 5+ WAR players (Halladay, Chase Utley, Lee and maybe Ryan Howard).
Red Sox will face the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, June 28-30
Notable Additions: Cliff Lee
Notable Losses: Jayson Werth
2011 Predicted Record: 98-64
Chicago Cubs
2011 Interleague play kicks off as Chicago comes to Boston for their first ever regular season game at Fenway Park. The Cubs have not been to Fenway since the 1918 World Series.
Maybe the long-awaited visit will help dislodge the long, dark World Series drought that has haunted the Cubs since 1908?
Maybe, but doubtful for the 2011 version of this franchise.
In 2010, the Cubs were a team that struggled to score runs (didn’t break 700 RS) and have done very little to improve their offense this offseason.
They did add former 40-HR man Carlos Pena, but he appears to be on a downward slide with more strikeouts and less power. His 33% K rate can be a killer and left-handed pitchers own him. He will benefit from the HR-friendly venue however.
Chicago did add some more firepower to the rotation and bullpen by adding Matt Garza via trade and signing Kerry Wood to anchor the back of the bullpen.
The Cubs have some pretty good pitchers including Ryan Dempster but will need Alfonso Soriano to slow the aging effects and Aramis Ramirez to suddenly stop getting hurt all of the time in order to be competitive.
The way it looks now the Cubs are an 80-win team and will add another year of championship drought to the North side.
The Red Sox will face the Cubs at Fenway Park, May 20-22.
Notable Additions: Matt Garza, Carlos Pena, Kerry Wood
Notable Losses: Xavier Nady
2011 Predicted Record: 80-82
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates have the dubious honor of having the worst run-differential in major League Baseball last year at a -279. Pittsburgh scored a paltry 587 runs and gave up an absurd 866 runs against.
Only Seattle scored less runs and the runs against the Pirates was the worst in all of baseball. Not surprisingly, both the Mariners and Pirates lost more than 100 games.
The -279 run-differential was the largest since the Arizona Diamondbacks’ -288 run differential in 2004. That Diamondbacks team lost 111 games that year.
2011 should be a little better with the continuing development of Jose tabata and Andrew McCutchen, but no one will be surprised if Pittsburgh loses 100 games again. They have no money and their biggest free agent acquisition was Lyle Overbay.
Lyle Overbay.
At least they have the first pick in the 2011 MLB amateur draft.
The Red Sox will face the Pirates at PNC Park, June 24-26.
Notable Additions: Lyle Overbay, Kevin Correia
Notable Losses: Chan Ho Park, Zach Duke
2011 Predicted Record: 66-96
Houston Astros
Houston has a hitter-friendly park but a weak lineup and it serves them no good at home. The Astros have a peak-age blossoming star in Hunter Pence teamed up with an aging and declining Carlos Lee.
Pence has very little around him to really help catapult him into super stardom.
At the top of the ‘stros lineup is Michael Bourn. Bourn can burn but he can’t get on base and despite having elite speed skills, he will never be an offensive catalyst because of his contact issues.
Outside of Bourn, Lee and Pence no one in the Astros lineup scares anyone unless you fear the power of Bill Hall. Hall could probably push 25 HRs with full-time ABs in Houston, as Minute Maid Park is +14% for RHB HR.
The Houston pitching staff is marginally better that the offense and is anchored by a truce ace in Wandy Rodriguez. But after Wandy, the rotation has woes and question marks. Brett Myers is a solid arm but battles health issues.
Bud Norris showed flashes of brilliance last season, but was ultimately a middle of the road starter.
JA Happ has some strikeout abilities but is consistently hampered by his control issues as well as giving up too many home runs. He can dominate lefties at times but overall has large gaps between his ERA and xERA.
The Astros haven’t done much to bolster their team and instead have invited 22 non-roster invitees to Spring Training in a “Let’s see what sticks” approach.
Houston is in the middle of the pack in a very average NL Central. Despite having the fixings of a last place team, the Astros will still probably finish ahead of the lowly Pirates.
Notable Additions: Bill Hall, Clint Barmes
Notable Losses: Felipe Paulino, Matt Lindstrom
2011 Predicted Record: 68-94
Milwaukee Brewers
The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers are going to be significantly better than they were in 2010. The pitching staff now features two aces and another possibly in the making.
This winter Brewers fans welcomed former AL Cy Young winner Zach Greinke from the Kansas City Royals as well as Shaun Marcum from the Toronto Blue Jays.
The deal cost Milwaukee two prospects (Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar) and a RHP in Carlos Villanueva but the addition of Marcum and Greinke to go along with Yovani Gallardo makes the Brewers and instant contender in the National League.
They also added Takashi Saito to the bullpen.
Winning the NL Central away from St Louis or Cincinnati could be tough but it looks like that division could easily feature any of those three teams.
The Brewers also have a well-stocked offense built around star outfielder Ryan Braun and power-hitting 1B Prince Fielder. Add in a healthy Rickie Weeks and a surging Cory Hart and suddenly the Brewers look like a potential 90+ win team.
The Red Sox will face the Brewers at Fenway Park, June 17-19.
Notable Additions: Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, Takashi Saito
Notable Losses: Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Carlos Villanueva, Trevor Hoffman
2011 Predicted Record: 90-72