(Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)
To sort of quote the infamous Chris Crocker: Leave Jonathan Papelbon alone!
Maybe I would be better off by not listening to sports talk radio in my car, but somehow or another I get roped in to listening to it and seem to become infuriated by callers. I’m not sure what it is about segments of the Red Sox fan base, but everything is always greener elsewhere. And whatever isn’t working; the best thing to do is get rid of it.
So as it pertains to Jonathan Papelbon, I want to say give it a break already. 2010 was the first year that his ERA matched closely with his xERA. He is a Jekyll and Hyde closer with increasingly extreme first half/second half splits.
But he still is a dominant end of the bullpen arm that will save 35-40 games in the pressure cooker of Boston. Did he blow eight saves last year? Yes. Did you know that Billy Wagner and Jonathan Broxton blew seven saves last year?
According to ESPN.com, Daniel Bard blew seven (I didn’t realize that) and no one is talking about axing him. In fact everyone wants him to be the closer. (I say everyone loosely)
Papelbon is coming back next year and it very well likely may be the last year for him as a Red Sox. I really hope it’s not a season marred in finger-pointing and second-guessing from Red Sox fans as he wraps up a great Red Sox run, but I can almost guarantee it will be. Of course it will be flamed by the Boston major media as the Sox will presumaby have three other closer-level relievers in the bullpen.
When a baseball player struggles in the first half of a season and then turns it on in the second half, he is often credited less for his season based on perception of his bad start. The converse is true for fast starters. Their reputation for the year is buoyed by early performance.
The problem for Papelbon was that he finally gave up a run in the playoffs of 2009. The ALDS ended terribly with Papelbon in the crosshairs of blame. For the first time in his postseason career he gave up runs in the playoffs and did so in a devastating fashion – to end a series.
BOOM. Blame game.
Prior to that game Papelbon went 26 straight innings of postseason play without a run. In that run included a 2007 World Series.
Then of course to start 2010, he plays with some mechanical stuff and struggles for the first half. He was throwing little softer and using more sliders. The HRs allowed went up as the flyball rate spiked to 53% and everyone was ready to crucify him (again I say everyone loosely).
In the second half he went back to throwing the ball harder and using more fastballs. The K/9 spiked to 12.5 after the All-Star break but his ERA ballooned to over 4.00 on the back of a 38% hit rate.
Look a little deeper and you’ll see his xERA in the second half was a tidy 2.89.
Papelbon’s approach and skills are bouncing around a little bit right now and you can complain about his $12 million dollar salary, but people need to get real here on Papelbon and not run him out of town after he has been the best closer over a sustained six-plus seasons that we have seen in a long time. When he stabilized the closer role and helped follow-up on Keith Foulke’s run, he was a savior. Now he’s washed up and overpaid because of a bad first half in 2010?
Again, yes the skills are bouncing around but he’s historically been a ~20 RAR pitcher with good health and a bulldog mentality.
Let’s enjoy the last leg (arm) of the Papelbon-era and stop with the wishful thinking of running him out of town.
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evanbrunell: 
alexconvery: 
CharlieSaponara: 
Paps just seems to be lacking something a closer (or any pitcher for that matter) needs to do his job effectively – confidence in his stuff. No doubt he believes he can close games with the best of 'em (which I think he still can), but having confidence in your secondary pitches is key.
When Beckett has no confidence in the breaking or off-speed, he relies too much on the fastball. We've seen the results of those 10-6 shootouts the Sox get into. Papelbon is no different. You may overpower a few hitters with an electric fastball, but eventually you're going to give up a few hits if everyone knows what you're throwing.
If he can get the splitter back down in the bottom half of the plate and maybe even get the breaking ball moving again, he'll be back to his old self.
Can Pap regain his confidence? Absolutely. Everyone's closer-in-waiting, Daniel Bard, almost never made it past Portland because of the lack of confidence in his pitching abilities. A little bit of extra work, and voila, a dominant major league setup man.
First-
Absolutely agree- fans are way too hard on Papebon and way too quick to think Bard will be terrific although the main stat used against Paps is blown saves and Bard has equal amount…
Second- Why has there been so little talk about Ortiz's contract being terrible?
Look at DH contracts this offseason:
Cust- 1/2.5
Dunn- 4/56
Encarnacion- 1/2.5
Giambi- minor
Guerreor- ?
Matsui- 1/4.25
Thome- 1/3
Ramirez- 1/2
Guerrero-??
2 things stand out Dunn for 4 years all else for 1. Dunn career HR numbers: 19 (66 games), 26, 27 (116 games), 46, 40,40, 40, 40, 40, 38, and 38- 31 year old with 354 HR's career avg .250, OBP .381, SLG .521 (Ortiz like except on a guy 4 years younger and a build that will last). The rest of the DH guys got small deals. Guerrero got offered $2M (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/orioles-make-guerrero-an-offer.html) and may settle for $5M or less.
Is Ortiz better than all the other one year deal guys- quite possibly (and really only Thome, Ramirez, and Matsui are in my opinion in the same class to compare).
Thome 40 years old:
2009- 124 games, 23 HR, 77 RBI, .249/.366/.481
2010- 108 games, 25 HR, 59 RBI, .283/.412/.627
career avg season (per 162 g) 40 HR, 110 RBI, .278/.404/.559
Ramirez 38 years old:
2009-104 games, 19 HR, 63 RBI, .290/.418/.531
2010- 90 games, 9 HR, 42 RBI, .298/.409/.460
career avg- 39 HR, 129 RBI, .313/.411//.586
Matsui 36 years old:
2009-142 games, 28 HR, 90 RBI, .274/.367/.509
2010- 145 games, 21 HR, 84 RBI, .274//.361/.459
career avg- 25 HR, 104 RBI, .290/.369/.479
Let's add in Guerrero now
Guerrero 35 years old:
2009- 100 games, 15 HR,, 50 RBI, .295/.334/.460
2010- 152 games, 27 HR, 115 RBI, .300/.345/.496
Career avg season (per 162 games played) 35 HR, 116 RBI, .320/.383./.563
Now to Ortiz 35 years old
2009- 150 games, 28 HR, 99 RBI, .238/.332/.462
2010- 145 games, 32 HR, 102 RBI, .270/.370/.529
career- 35 HR, 119 RBI, .281/.376/.543
Clearly Dunn capitalized on his youth- and his consistent track record. Lets be honest any of these other guys are hard to predict. It’s hard not to think Dunn will put up similar numbers for four year- and at $14M per I’d take 160 HR’s and 400 RBI with .250/.380/.520- and its hard not to think he will hit similar numbers. No one else on this list offers that consistency- hence four years.
Manny fell off a cliff with his numbers- particularly in-depth numbers (the dude can’t hit the fastball anymore). Plus, he came packaged with Damon- hard to compare to other players since he also has crazy personality, drug test, and hit a wall unlike other players.
Ortiz got one year, and if the Sox don’t pick up the option a pissed off Ortiz was a concern so they picked it up rather than try to fight for a smaller contract- but should they have? Is Ortiz at $12M better than the other options? Let’s think.
Sure Thome’s 40, but he seems set for a good year. Play him 90 games get 16-22 HRs and 50-65 RBI with decent avg and on base. Maybe he can keep on playing 100+ games, but if not give the other DH at bats to rest players when Lowrie plays or to Lowrie himself. Those numbers and $9M seem good compared to Ortiz. Sure less power- but more experience and time for Lowrie and $9M to give cash options – since all future expense are taxed and mid season moves get harder to make- or they could have gotten another relief guy with the money etc. Plus, Thome’s also a lefty- although sine the Sox have so many lefties maybe that doesn’t matter.
Matsui gives 20-25 HRs, 80-90 RBI and decent power and on-base numbers. Plus hitting with the Sox lineup may bump some of those figures up. He plays full-time and gives $7.75 M flexibility you don’t have with Ortiz.
And Guerrero- his season may have been a chance year in the midst of likely decline- but he still has it. He hit cleanup for a WS team and would have similar protection. He’s also save 7-9 million over Ortiz it seems.
Am I saying Ortiz resigning was bad- NO! But, look at the other guys- would Ortiz have gotten $12 M on the market- or could the Sox have declined and taken him back for much much less?? If he left would the Sox be a lot worse with Guerrero/Thome/Matsui and 6-10 million dollars?? I don’t think so. Ortiz will likely have a season like the last two- odd but great at the end. He’s a Sox legend- but the Sox haven’t let that matter for other players near the end of their careers- they got rid of other favorite players in arguably disrespectful ways- but all at the right times (Nomar, Manny, Pedro, Mueller, Bay….). When players asked for too much- they were gone- why not this off season with Ortiz?
Back to the original point- No Paps and no Ortiz frees up $24 M- fill that with Soriano to close – or go to Bard and get another reliever for 3-5 M and fill in DH with someone like Matsui for $4.25, and it doesn’t look much worse at all plus there’s a lot more money to make other deals or help the roster mid year and that helps a lot. Also, now Lowrie has more playing time- and maybe even Reddick can come up part way through and get more development (at very little cost).
Not saying Ortiz was a bad signing- but after seeing all these weak DH deals have to wonder if picking up that option looks bad with the new deals for DH’s- if the front office had the hindsight is Ortiz a $12M man?
Lots of good points- although Guerrero's camp is saying he has an $8M offer and the Orioles offered around $5M- but still that's a lot less than $12M for Papi. So the argument becomes Papi for 12 or Guerrero for 8ish this year. Although hard to see Guerrero playing for the Sox- you ignore likelihood of playing for the Sox in this argument. Matsui wasn't leaving, Guerrero wasn't coming- so what would the Sox have done if not resigning Papi?
Either hope to pay less that $12M and have him pissed or get a much weaker guy- Thome wasn't going, Manny wasn't coming back- so who would it have been? They weren't going to give Dunn a big deal after Crawford and Gonzalez- so left with options of internal or try to resign Papi for less.
Sure Lowrie shows signs of some good hitting- and you could fill people in- but he's no Papi- who has put up good numbers- so I think it really was worth it to go $12M for one year.
The big question now is- what happens next year???? Like JP said the DH is the question if Papi puts up same numbers next year will he try for a couple years or sign a similar 1 year deal??? Will the Sox have a better option?? Hard to tell- depends a lot on player development- Reddick, Anderson, Lowrie healthy and progressing- if those three don't all turn into solid regular projections for next year they need to keep Ortiz or get a new DH I think.
Not bad- Rosenthal pretty much made your exact same arguement
http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/big_pa…
I wouldn't ant Soriano over Paps- and that'd be a three year commitment- but other than that agree.
Don't think Ortiz would have liked not getting the option picked up (and referenced the option a lot last year)- so if not picked up he may have been gone- and the other guys aren't as good at Ortiz. Matsui isn't bad- but don't think he would have come to Boston, and Guerrero is hard to predict and may get more than $5M or one year- but if he did come for less maybe that would have been better than Ortiz? But it's hard to think of the Sox without Ortiz. Hopefully he starts better this year! What the Sox do next year is more interesting with Ortiz.
1B Gonzalez
2b Pedroia
SS Lowrie/Iglesias
3B Youk
LF Crawford
CF Els
RF Reddick???
DH ????
SP set and RP who ever knows
So questions are closer if no Paps, and filling out RP, then RF likely Reddick, SS Lowrie or Iglesias seems set- so really only DH is questionable- and Ortiz will want to be back- but next year can't image it will be for $12M
Don't you mean Kalish?
As for the article– damn straight. It's just your standard Boston Chicken Little Syndrome. Also, this is the slowest period of the year for baseball news.
Do yourself a favor… stop giving in to that urge to listen to the vapid echo chamber that is sports talk radio. It will destroy us all if we give it the chance.
Amen to that! It must be something in the airwaves, because fans who listen to talk radio, be it red sox or politics, seem to become unable to do their own research or make their own decisions about the team (dittoheads) and their voices become increasingly shrill.
Thank you so much, Darryl, for saying what needs to be said. We have perhaps the best and most complete Red Sox team in a century, yet certain media and their apparently mindless listeners are already bashing the team's members: "Paps can't pitch", "Ells can't play D", "Papi's making too much", "Trade Beckett, Lacky & Daisuke", "Trade JD". The list is endless and pathetic. These depressed and depressing bloggers especially populate the NESN & Herald sites, which are usually pretty balanced in their writing.
I was around when Ted Williams was daily raked over the coals by the media, led by the Colonel who hated him, and the fans along the LF foul line went to games just to boo him. Why? Because the media riled them up. I swear that today's hater fans are the children of those who hated on Teddy Ballgame. Perhaps it's genetic and incurable.