The Red Sox this year are a different breed of Red Sox clubs we are used to. For whatever reason, the primary composition of the Red Sox has been offense. Perhaps previous general managers have salivated at the Green Monster and attempted to take advantage of it – to be fair, so did our very Theo Epstein prior to this year. We always have great hitters, ranging from the indomitable Jimmie Foxx, the fleet Tris Speaker, the fluid Ted Williams, the brilliant Tony Conigliaro, the hardworking Carl Yastrzemski, the powerful Jim Rice, the “Hot Dog” Mo Vaughn, the franchise of Nomar Garciaparra, the dollar signs of Manny Ramirez, the guillotiner of David Ortiz… I didn’t even include Dwight Evans, Carlton Fisk, Fred Lynn, Mike Greenwell, Wade Boggs … I could go on and on.
Where are our brilliant pitchers? Our brilliant defensemen? Yes, we had Pedro Martinez. We had Curt Schilling. We had Jim Lonborg. We had Cy Young. But the one constant is this: we had these horses, who were far and few, and we had nothing behind them. No backend of the rotation starters, making us rely on people who had no business being in a post-season rotation, let alone bullpen in a deciding game.
I’m not saying that we still have really deep pitching, but it’s a lot better than in recent memory, and it’s going to keep getting better. Jonathan Papelbon seems entrenched as closer, both for now and the future, which dents our long-term rotation plans, but if someone is that dominating as closer, I don’t think you can take him out of that role. There’s a reason why they never tried to put Mariano Rivera back into a starting slot. Nonetheless, our rotation is deep (and granted, aging) with Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, and Tim Wakefield as our front three. Our fourth is the enigma of Matt Clement, our fifth is the mishmash of David Wells and Lenny DiNardo.
Our bullpen is far from a sure thing, but you know something? No bullpen is truly sure, and our bullpen ERA is 3.79, which is good enough for 11th in the major leagues. That’s right, 11th. It doesn’t matter that Rudy Seanez’s ERA is 6.60 or Julian Tavarez’s is 4.76. It also doesn’t matter than Jonathan Papelbon’s ERA is 0.40 and Mike Timlin’s is 0.96. What matters is that the cumulative ERA is 3.79, and that’s pretty darned good. Subtract the early ineffectiveness of David Riske, the finger plugging a hole in the dam of Mike Holtz, Abe Alvarez, Manny Delcarmen, and Jermaine Van Buren (who, by the way, left Boston with an ERA of 3.00 and has an ERA of 1.26 in Pawtucket) and add in David Riske’s return to hopefully his 2005 ways (3.10) and this bullpen is solid. I also realize that Seanez’s ERA is ugly, but I can’t find fault with an 11.40 K/9 ratio for Seanez.
Boston is tied for 15th in the majors in ERA, largely due to the ineffectiveness coming out of the fifth hole in the rotation and backend rotation woes, which should improve as the season wears on.
Boston is far from the offensive juggernaut it once was, but it’s also holding it’s own with 222 runs scored, good for 12th in the majors and mere runs behind 8th place. With the nine runs scored last night, it may even be in 8th now – I don’t know if ESPN has updated it yet. Our lineup is even better than the Yankees right now – imagine that! It does have a black hole of Alex Gonzalez batting ninth, but here’s where I come to Gonzalez’s defense (pun unintended).
Offensively, A-Gon is at .197/.276/.299 with a .575 OPS – but in May, it’s at .213/.278/.383 with a .661 OPS, with a lot more power being exhibited. Out of 27 shortstops who qualify for the batting title, Alex Gonzalez is ranked 24th with his .575 OPS. Change it to .661, and he’s vaulted up to 21st, ahead of Rafael Furcal. Okay, vaulted may not be the right word, but he’s not the worst shortstop in the majors – nor even the AL – in offense. Gonzalez ranks way up there in defense. Now, I can tell you, shortstop is incredibly vital to a team.
I just recently finished a book called The Last Nine Innings by Charles Euchner. I cannot stress how much you need to put this book up. It just changes your opinion about every facet of the game. The leading quote, which is on the front cover of the book, is by Andrew Zimbalist, who says that “you’ll never watch a baseball game the same way,” which is true. Let me put this book aside for a moment and revist a specific topic in this book, but for now, this book helps me realize how much defense really helps a team out.
Alex Gonzalez runs this defense. The shortstop runs the defense. The centerfielder runs the outfield, but the shortstop not only runs the infield, it reigns over the outfield. It takes it’s cues from the catcher, but the catcher’s primary focus is the pitcher. The shortstop reigns supreme, and I truly enjoy watching this defense headed by Gonzalez. I sit down for a game, and I have no apprehension about mental mistakes or gaffes happening. When they do, I’m able to not throw my hands up and scream bloody murder, but realize it as happenstance. Wily Mo Pena, for example, did not have a good game the other day as he tried to carry a ball into an out instead of clamping down immediately, or slipping. Any other season, I would have been annoyed. This season – well, slips happen (ask Terrence Long about last night) and you can bet Pena will clamp down on the ball next time.
This defense is solid, and it’s a joy to watch. This team plays good all-around baseball. I don’t even mind Willie Harris having a spot on the team. He’s valuable – he provides speed and defense. We don’t need overwhelming offense to win. Harris would have been meaningless last year, for we needed every power bat we could get our hands on to beat opponents into submission, because we had to. We don’t have to this year, and this dramatically increases our flexibility.
Speaking of defense, Wily Mo Pena’s been doing a pretty good job out there in centerfield save for the odd mental errors, and his hitting leads me to believe he could soon join the big hitters of Boston’s history shortly, as his .327/.374/.505 is indicative (and may I add, the best mark of his career thus far, and with a 1.056 OPS against righties to boot!) of improvement. Nevertheless, Coco Crisp is due to return.
With that, comes the question begging a resolution – what to do with a leadoff hitter? Kevin Youkilis is 12th in the MAJOR LEAGUES in OBP with a .425 mark, definitely leadoff worthy.
One problem. He has no speed.
I know the argument all too well – OBP before speed, and consider me amongst the people who preach Kevin Youkilis over Juan Pierre – but I would also take above average OBP and speed over just simply OBP. Why? I’ll let Euchner explain it.
Texas A&M’s [Theodore L.] Turocy has proved statistically what baseball people have long seen with their own eyes: hitters perform better when a potential base stealer dances off first base. A hitter’s OPS … increases when a known base-stealing threat occupies the bases. When the bases are occupied by a known base stealer (someone who attempts steals at least 20 percent of the time), the hitter’s median OPS increases 132 points. With an occasional base stealer (someone who steals up to 20 percent of the time), the OPS increases 42 points. With a runner who never attempts a stolen base, the OPS remains the same.
Coco Crisp shows fine plate discipline, and is a burner on the basepaths. Insert him in the leadoff spot and watch Loretta, Ortiz, and Ramirez go on hitting rapages. You could theoretically slot Youkilis in the on-deck circle of every game, but Mark Loretta has much better bat control, more innate knowledge of the game, and less power. It’s simple to say that while Youkilis should be our second hitter for years to come, right now it’s Loretta that bridges us to Papi and Manny, and he does it as Boston’s true #2 hitter in a long time.
So, where to slot Youkilis to maximize the amount of damage done? He’s hitting at .313/.425/.483. Right now the lineup is as thus:
Kevin Youkilis
Mark Loretta
David Ortiz
Manny Ramirez
Trot Nixon
Jason Varitek
Mike Lowell
Wily Mo Pena
Alex Gonzalez
When Crisp comes back, I propose it should look like thus:
Crisp
Loretta
Ortiz
Ramirez
Nixon
Youkilis
Lowell
Varitek
Gonzalez
Why? A couple of reasons. First, Lowell is doing extremely well in the seven slot – I see no reason to move him out of there. Theoretically, it would be nice to get him in the sixth slot – someone of his offensive abilities belongs there, but not only do we get Trot Nixon’s tremendous OBP out of the five slot, inserting Youkilis in there allows Youkilis to clean up further remains and get on base behind Nixon for Lowell to ding a double. That would wear opposing pitchers down quickly – the leadoff capabilities of Crisp, the bat handling of Loretta, the discerning eye and power of Ortiz, Ramirez, and Nixon and the patience of Youkilis turning into the doubles machine of Lowell and the steady Varitek before only a gasp of relief in Gonzalez before it starts all over again.
In addition, it gets the pressure of batting sixth off Varitek. Perhaps you can’t call it pressure, but slotting him behind Lowell with Youkilis sixth is the right move. Varitek is hitting .235/.328/.403 on the year. In April, he had fine contact and patience, but that’s been reversed in May, with power being the name of the game. It all ends up at this line, and sending him to eighth would relieve some burden of needing to produce offensively. That line is not very becoming of a $10 million man, but he does so much in terms of leadership and defense that this line can be overlooked – plus I doubt it’ll remain that low all season long.
One thing is for sure – and that this Red Sox team is balanced, is in first with a 26-16 record, puttering along nicely with David Riske back and Coco Crisp on the cusp of returning, and a balanced Red Sox team seemingly putting it all together for a run at SOLE possession of first place when the season expires. Enjoy the ride – I am.
