On Friday, we looked at the 2008 ZiPS projections for the Red Sox, which sees the Red Sox as the best team in the American League.
I’m not seeing it. I see some flaws — big ones. Fortunately, we can correct (or minimize) these flaws.
To me, there are two courses of action we can take here. One involves minimal impact but could end up being huge. The second is a pretty drastic course of action.
Option 1: Find one more bat on the bench via free agency.
Ryan Klesko, whom we discussed earlier this year, is still a free agent. He would be a great low-cost solution for the Red Sox that could take over Brandon Moss’ projection role. It increases the depth of the Red Sox’s ability to weather any lack of offense from the outfield as we can then call Moss up to the majors if we have to. However, ZiPS projects a .242/.336/.370 line from Klesko, embarrassingly lower than Moss’ (.264/.334/.424).
We could also go after a personal favorite of mine, Brad Wilkerson (because he gets on base). Playing in Montreal/Washington, he was dealt to Texas in the Alfonso Soriano trade and struggled through a few bouts of injury. A free agent, he’s looking for a three-year deal at $21 million and getting no bites (although I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up in San Diego). [Note: please use this mention of San Diego as some foreshadowing, please. Thanks.]
Wilkerson, who will be 31, is projected to hit .236/.332/.435. Yikes, that’s not good, and I really have a hard time believing he’ll pull that off. This past year, he hit .234/.319/.467, and again, had both of his seasons in Texas marred by injury. As a bench player, I would expect him to hit closer to his .250/.354/.451 career line, and if he’s healthy again, he could reach those numbers easily. (Although now that Erik Bedard looks to be heading to Seattle, he instantly becomes the most likely choice in Seattle.)
That’s a low-risk, low-profile option. Sign a free agent bat, with two possibilities being Klesko and Wilkerson. (Click here for Zach’s take on three other bench options.) But don’t you think that something more needs to be done to interject some offense into this club?
Look, the 2003 Red Sox were an incredible offensive machine. We can’t deny that, and we can’t expect the Red Sox to sustain that offense, not when additional attention is made towards keeping Boston a well-balanced team with hitting, pitching, defense and speed. I agree with making it a balanced team. We were balanced last year, we will be balanced this year — but I think less balanced. I think we’ll have more flaws on the offense and less room for error. And I think those flaws can and will be exposed, largely due to injury and/or attrition.
That’s why I want the Red Sox to bring in their sixth starting shortstop in six years.
Option 2: Package Julian Tavarez, Coco Crisp, Julio Lugo, cash to the San Diego Padres for Khalil Greene and .
Note: I have heard no such rumors. This is conjecture on my part.
This is more likely than you think.
“A long-term contract with Khalil at this time is probably doubtful,” said GM Kevin Towers. “I don’t know, it might not be able to get done. Khalil’s family is on the East Coast and I think there are some health concerns.” (San Diego Union-Tribune)
Geoff Young at Ducksnorts tackles The Khalil Conundrum — whether or not to trade Khalil. In it, he says this:
For the club to take a loss at shortstop… they would need to make gains elsewhere. Pitching and center field seem to be the logical choices, but good luck finding anyone willing to trade impact players at those positions.
Oh really, Geoff?
The Padres are always looking for more pitching (especially with their starting pitchers being Greg Maddux, Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Randy Wolf, Mark Prior, Glendon Rusch, Shawn Estes — the latter four all injury question marks). Julian Tavarez could start the season off as a starter while Mark Prior fully rehabs and once Prior steps in, Tavarez could shift to the bullpen. Tavarez provides great insurance for the Padres.
The Padres also need a left-fielder or a centerfielder, as Geoff would have you think. Acquiring Coco Crisp and his sensational range and speed would be a boon in the cavernous Petco Park. Crisp’s seeming inability to hit for power is marginalized at Petco where the game trends towards getting singles and doubles and moving around the basepaths. It would also enable fragile Jim Edmonds to shift to left-field, limiting his fading defensive prowess from too much exposure.
Lastly, Julio Lugo takes over for Greene. Everything I said about Crisp can be said about Lugo. The fact of the matter is that Petco really takes away from the homerun hitters, and while I’m not advocating that the Padres simply forget about trying to hit homeruns, I do believe that the gain of Tavarez, Crisp and Lugo would offset the loss of Greene, who can smack the ball out of the park on occasion.
Last year, Greene hit .254/.291/.468 and 27 HR. Yikes. This was a step back from a year ago, when he hit .245/.320/.427. (ZiPS has him at .249/.300/.442 with 20 HR in 2008.)
What were Greene’s numbers away from Petco? Glad you asked. He’s at a .288/.322/.519.
Looking a whole lot sexier already, isn’t he? Greene’s career line on the road is .280/.335/.515 and at Petco is .228/.288/.370 (boy, Petco really taketh away).
There’s no question that Greene could be better than he is if he got taken out of Petco, and also no question that his inability to hit at Petco sags his trade value because his numbers look nowhere as good. His defense is pretty good, too. He ranked fourth in all of baseball in fielding percentage, committing 11 errors. His 4.38 Range Factor checks in at 14th — middle of the pack — and his Zone Rating of .855 ranks fourth. Works for me.
As for the pitcher… well, we need to get a pitcher in return so we don’t get thin depth, do we? Picking Justin Hampson might be a good idea as he seems like he’s out of place in San Diego with nowhere to go. The 27-year old lefty could take over for Tavarez (or Javier Lopez or Kyle Snyder) in the bullpen. He turned in a pretty impressive season, hurling 53.1 IP of a 2.70 ERA. I used the depth chart of the Padres on Rotoworld to identify Hampson as someone to target. In the end, however, this part is interchangeable — as long as we get a serviceable major league pitcher.
Greene would be under our control for two more years before becoming a free agent. He has a desire to go back to the East Coast for family, he’s shown that he hits great on the road and he has good defense. He could slot in the No. 6 or 7 slot great in our lineup.
To compensate for the loss of Coco Crisp, you refer to Option 1 outlined above and carry Brandon Moss as well… or you bring in Shannon Stewart, Kenny Lofton, Trot Nixon orBobby Kielty, I don’t really care. Someone who can catch the ball as a backup.
Really, this trade makes so much sense to me (from the Red Sox’s perspective) that I really hope Theo picks the phone up now. I told him to pick up the phone last year and sign J.D. Drew. Pick it up again, Theo. Call Kevin Towers.
I’m not seeing any downside to this.