People often ask me why I continue to recap the Cafardo mailbag week after week. Really, it’s simple. As the lead writer here at Fire Brand, I’m tasked with writing a minimum of three articles a week. Some weeks, I’ll make upwards of five or six contributions depending on the news or if I feel like doing a few link-arounds. Pumping out that kind of content week after week can be a little daunting. As a result, sometimes I’ll channel my inner Dan Shaughnessy, and I’ll mail in a column every once in a while. I’m not proud of it, but it’s true.
Actually, that’s not true at all. I just felt like taking a crack at CHB. Really, I just like answering the questions, and providing my take on the matter. There’s a lot of misinformation out there (no, I’m not talking about Cafardo), and I like taking the opportunity to right the incorrect perceptions. My opinions might only reach a couple thousand people, but if I can affect the opinion of even one person; I feel like I’ve done my job.
Anyway, this week’s bag is filled with a ton of misplaced negativity and hairbrained ideas. It’s shocking, I know. Still, despite Nick doing an admirable job answering his own mail, I’ll take a stab at providing my own perspective on each topic.
Does it not make way more sense to see what develops and make a trade in July (or sooner if needed) than to follow what the Yankees did with a knee-jerk reaction and sign Roy Oswalt? Last year after we signed Crawford and Gonzalez the Yankees did not jump off the bridge, they followed through on their plan, and how did they do?
This is an excellent point. The Red Sox already have a formidable top three in their rotation in Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, and Clay Buchholz. Plus, they have a bevy of serviceable candidates, starting with Daniel Bard, from which to fill out the two open slots at back-end of the rotation. In theory, the Red Sox should be able to win around 55% of their games by the July 31st trading deadline, even if they’re sending out two scrubs every five days. Their lineup should be potent enough to cover some below average pitching performances. If they need another arm come mid-July, then the front office should look to make a deal. Spending money on Oswalt just because he’s available doesn’t seem like a sound idea; especially when you consider his long history with back injuries.
When a team trades a high-salary player to make payroll flexibility and “eats” part of the contract, which portion of the contract counts toward the luxury tax of which team? For example, if the Cubs trade Soriano to the Yankees and agree to pay $30 million, does that $30 million count toward the Yankees payroll, the Cubs payroll, or neither when calculating the luxury tax?
Interesting question. The luxury tax is based on average annual salary, not actual salary. Alfonso Soriano is signed to an eight year $136M contract, and his average annual salary is $17M. Therefore, he carries a luxury tax salary of $17M through 2014 when his contract ends. This would be true if his contract was front-loaded or backloaded.
If the Cubs traded Soriano to the Yankees, and agreed to eat $30M of the $54M remaining on his contract, they would be charged an amount that is proportional to the overall $17M luxury tax hit. In this example, the Cubs will be paying 55.5% of the remaining contract. As a result, they’ll absorb $9.435M toward their tax calculation. The Yankees on the other hand, will absorb $7.565M.
Can the Red Sox restructure contracts like John Lackey‘s in order to free up money this year to get another starter and not exceed the luxury tax? Or, is restructuring contracts not allowed in MLB?
Sadly, they couldn’t do it even if Lackey was interested in making such a move. As Cafardo mentioned himself, the MLBPA would never allow it. In fact, the primary reason the Alex Rodriguez to Boston deal fell through in the first place was that the union objected to his restructured contract. Allowing players and teams to restructure contracts opens up a can of worms that could end up leading to the disappearance of guaranteed contracts in Major League Baseball. This might sound like a great idea in theory, but it creates a ton of ripples that may endanger the labor peace that baseball’s enjoyed over the past 17 years.
Am I thinking wrong when I seem to see a great resemblance between Fred Lynn and Ryan Sweeney? They both have the same career batting average, 283. I think Sweeney is the superior player. No one thought of using a platoon with Lynn. Why the obsession with the right field position as one of platoon?
Can someone please give me a glass of the Kool-Aid this guy is drinking? It sounds trippy. Seriously, Fred Lynn and Ryan Sweeney aren’t even remotely similar. While Sweeney has a good glove and respectable range, he’s best used as a corner outfielder. Lynn, on the other hand, was a Gold Glove quality center fielder in his prime. Offensively, Sweeney has a decent eye, but completely fails in the power department. Lynn was proficient in both areas. So, no Sweeney is not the superior player. *bashes head on desk*
Is it safe to assume that the Tim Wakefield era is over in Boston?
The offseason isn’t over, and the Red Sox are still looking for pitching. No, it’s not over–yet. I can see the club offering him a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training. If he does, he’ll have to earn his spot on the 25-man roster. No free lunches for Wake this time.
I continue to be mystified by the statement that the Red Sox overspent last year and now this year can’t afford to sign middle-of-the-road free agents. Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t this the same team ownership that told us they made trades and free agent signings with a view toward not only this season, but as part of long term planning?
Mystified? Really? With the exception of J.D. Drew, the lineup has been kept completely intact. The rotation still features three pitchers that have the capability to performing at an ace-quality level for an extended period of time. The bullpen has been revamped, and looks to be as deep as it is talented. All-in-all, this is a team that should have no problem competing with the Yankees and Rays for a playoff spot.
As for the financial planning, I think the Red Sox are doing that with the future in mind. The club will almost certainly be forced to pay the luxury tax for 2013. By staying away from long-term contracts for mediocre free agents, they’re improving their chances of avoiding the tax in 2014; thereby avoiding the 50% dollar-for-dollar tax and “resetting the clock.” Furthermore, next year’s free agent class looks to be pretty solid. I’m sure Cherington and his deputies would much rather spend their money on quality, rather than what’s available now.
Also, to be fair, the Yankees have been pretty frugal this winter as well. Both of the moves they made last Friday seemed to have been made with an eye toward getting under the 2014 luxury tax threshold.
General manager Ben Cherington seems so far to have received a free pass from you and other members of the usually critical Globe press corps. However, as he continues to fiddle while the Sox go down in flames, is it not time to re-evaluate his performance?
The Red Sox will have close to $180M payroll. It’s not as if ownership is being cheap. Also, while the Globe press corps tends to be critical, they’re also typically irrational in their views. You can go ahead and criticize Cherington for his three months on the job, but that doesn’t mean you’ll sound smart doing it. The moves the front office have made look to be incredibly smart. They aren’t sexy by any means, but they’re methodical and well thought out.
The Yankees certainly distanced themselves from the Red Sox with the acquisitions of Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda. The Sox are now no better than third in the division and Toronto is getting better. It would seem the Red Sox are now forced to make a significant acquisition either by trade or through free agency. This is a test for the ownership. Are they going to live up to their promises to the Red Sox fans or whine some more?
First off all, I wouldn’t say the Red Sox are “no better than third in the division.” The Rays were a game better last season, and they still have an inconsistent offense and no first baseman. The Yankees have a lot of aging players on their roster who could see heavier than expected doses of regression in 2012. They also might not suffer any. They’re the odds on favorite for the moment, but they’re by no means a lock. The Blue Jays have improved, but I’m not sure they’ve improved to the point they can oust the Red Sox from the playoff discussion.
Despite all of this, the Red Sox aren’t being forced into anything. Making a move because you feel you have to is one of the worst things a GM can do for his club. Most of the time, those transactions tend to be shortsighted and ill-advised.
As for ownership, what promises have they made other than winning a championship (something they’ve done twice in 10 years), and made a commitment to putting a contending team on the field (something they’ve done every year). Many Red Sox fans have become spoiled, selfish, entitled brats who think every season must end in a championship. That’s fine and all, but that’s a trait usually associated with Yankee fans. Just saying…
Any chance the Sox sign Prince Fielder and move Adrian Gonzalez to right field?
Bob of Watertown, MA, you’ve just won the dumbest question of the week award. Congratulations.
Is Ben Cherrington sleeping or hogtied by The Trio’s do not spend policy?
See my answer to the entitled Red Sox fan two questions up. This is a smart, fiscally responsible plan that’s been agreed to by all four major parties. I know the luxury tax business is tough and a little convoluted, but you’re just going to have to trust me on this one.
Is it possible the Red Sox will sign Pedro Martinez to a one-day minor league contract so he could technically retire as a Red Sox, like they did for Nomar Garciaparra?
If I were in charge, I would have already done it. I love the idea. I really think this should happen soon.
The Red Sox really only have three bad contracts on their roster if you exclude Carl Crawford, as most insiders believe he’s going to bounce back this season. Do you think ownership has a responsibility to the Red Sox fans to bite the bullet this season and sign or trade for a legitimate fourth starter in either Oswalt, Jackson or Garza?
If we don’t count Crawford, I only count two (John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka) bad contracts, and one of those expires at the end of the season. If the Red Sox obtain one pitcher this winter out of that group, it will be Oswalt. Matt Garza will likely cost too much in terms of prospects, and farm system is still about a year away from being strong enough to sustain another big trade.
Edwin Jackson is reportedly looking for ridiculous money (maybe as much as 5/$75M). As I’ve mentioned previously, Jackson is young and has great stuff. Could he put it together? Sure, but that’s a big “if.” When he’s on, he’s pretty awesome. Unfortunately, he’s off just as much as he’s on. When he’s off, he walks a ton of hitters, and gives up a lot of runs. At that price, he’s not worth it; especially when you factor in the luxury tax implications. To be perfectly honest, if the Red Sox sign Jackson, you can pretty much kiss any chance of Ellsbury returning in 2014.
Why would Jason Varitek agree to take the risk of a very unlikely return to the Red Sox? Wouldn’t he be better off finding a job elsewhere?
Sure, but there has to be someone interested in his services first. Considering his age, offensive skill set, and defensive liabilities behind the plate (pitch calling aside); I can’t imagine he has too many suitors. Chances are, this was his only opportunity to continue playing.
Will it be a better option if the Red Sox ask MLB commissioner Bud Selig to settle the compensation talks for Theo Epstein?
I know it’s irritating that it hasn’t been done, but we all need to be patient. We probably won’t receive much in value anyway…well, at least as it applies to the 2012 season.