Welcome to this week’s incarnation of the Cafardo mailbag. No, I’m not back to doing this regularly. That’s still Tim’s area of expertise. He just lent it to me for the week because I kinda felt like getting back to my roots a little bit. If you would like to read Cafardo’s answers to the mailbag questions, by all means do so. If you complain about the fact Cafardo’s remarks aren’t included down in the comments section, that’s cool. I’ll just assume you’re too lazy to click the link that I’ve provided you. I kid, I kid. No seriously, I really will assume you’re lazy, and I’ll ignore your comment.
Anyway, onto the mailbag!
When Clay Buchholz returns, the Red Sox will have six starters (Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Lackey, Dempster, Peavy), so who sits, or do they use a modified six-man rotation to get rest headed into the postseason?
This is an outstanding question. A lot of fans seem to be really concerned about a six man rotation, but I don’t see how this is anything but a good thing. There are a few things that could happen. One scenario, and probably the one that most think of first, is that someone will get bumped to the bullpen. A few months ago, people probably would have assumed Felix Doubront would be that guy. That’s not the case any more. He really seems like he’s broken through in a big way to be a very good mid-rotation starter who can occasionally dazzle. Jon Lester seems to be a popular candidate, but that seems pretty unlikely given his stature with the club. I could envision an scenario where he gets bumped from the playoff rotation, but not in-season. Ryan Dempster probably seems to be the most likely candidate. After a great April, he’s been consistently inconsistent. Plus, he has a background as a closer, so it’s not like he hasn’t pitched out of the bullpen before.
Still, that scenario doesn’t seem terribly likely. It seems a lot more likely one of our starting pitchers gets hurt between now and September when Clay Buchholz returns. Pitchers are notoriously fragile creatures. If we get through October without at least one of our current five starters missing at least 2-3 starts, I’ll be shocked.
The third scenario? Buchholz doesn’t return this season. Yeah, let’s not talk about that one.
Does Buchholz want to be traded? He’s sure acting like it.
I don’t understand your question, and I won’t respond to it.
We have seen a lot of player movement up through the minor league system recently. Players are moving from A to AA, AA to AAA. Is this their normal career progression or are the Sox posturing their system for further deals?
Typically, most prospects should expect to spend a year at each level. This gives players enough time to make the adjustments they’ll need before being promoted the next year.
In the case of Boston’s farm system this year, there have been a number of in-season promotions. While the sheer volume of in-season promotions has been a little out of the ordinary, much of this is being propelled by the farm system’s outstanding performance this season. Over the last decade or so, the Red Sox have long taken the approach that it’s better to challenge your prospects further once they’ve conquered a level. They believe, that only though failing and making adjustments can players continue to make progress. So, once a player conquers a level, there’s no real reason to not to promote them.
This has much more to do with performance than it does with the Red Sox posturing their system for deals down the road. The system is so strong and so deep, that they don’t really need to posture.
In the ninth inning on Aug. 2, with the Sox down a run, and after a single by Stephen Drew, Brock Holt attempted to bunt. I think he fouled off two pitches, then he — inexplicably to me, at least — turned to bunt on the third pitch and took a called third strike. Why was he bunting with two strikes? He is not a bad hitter and to my way of thinking should have been swinging away.
BROCK HOLT!
I have no clue why he was bunting with two strikes. Personally, I despise the bunt except in very special circumstances. Swinging away seems like the right move.
Why is an umpire allowed to call balls and strikes with his head positioned between the catcher and the hitter? It’s impossible from that location that he can see the outside corner of the plate. His head must be directly over the catcher’s head.
THANK YOU! This has been one of my biggest pet peeves. Umpire positioning, in general, has been something of a hot button issue this season. It reared it’s ugly head a couple of weeks ago on the close call involving Daniel Nava at home plate. Ultimately, I think this only builds the case for expanded replay for everything outside of calling balls and strikes.
With balls and strikes, it’s tough to say who it’s really helping or hurting. Pitchers seems like the most likely victims, and I think that data shows supports that hypothesis. Having said that, we’re currently experiencing the stingiest run environment since the early 1990s, so at this point it’s something of a wash.
I don’t think Lester will regain his old form in Boston. A change of scenery is needed. Is there another underperforming pitcher about the same age/money out there for whom we might swap Lester?
I’ve never liked the whole “change of scenary will help player X perform better” style of thinking. There’s really no proof either way that going to a different team will actually help Lester. Furthermore, is it even certain that Lester hasn’t pitched as well as we’d hoped simply because he pitches for the Red Sox? That sounds like nothing more than a “he can’t handle pitching in Boston” claim–and we all know that isn’t the case.
Lester has some issues he needs to fix. There’s no doubt about it. As Brett mentioned a few weeks ago, his cutter isn’t getting the kind of break he used to get back when it was a plus-pitch. Additionally, his control seems to escape him purely at random. Still, he’s shown over his last few starts that he might be about to fully turn the corner and return to the Lester of the first six weeks.
As for a trade, I don’t see any trade occuring in-season. After the season, the Red Sox have to decide whether or not to pick up Lester’s 2013 option. If they do, he’ll be pretty reasonably priced for a team interested in taking a one year flyer on a high ceiling pitcher with a very good recent history of performance. At this point, since we’re talking about after the season, it’s tough to point to a single pitcher that might be a good option for whom the Sox could swap Lester.
What is Felix Hernandez‘s fascination with staying in Seattle? Shouldn’t games like Thursday’s make him want to leave for a team that could actually win?
Why do Red Sox fans still obsess over King Felix. Face it. You’re NEVER going to have him on your team while he’s in his prime. It’s just not ever going to happen. The sooner you all accept that, the easier this will all be.
Also, why were you a Red Sox fan prior to 2004? Weren’t you sick of falling short of a championship, while you’re chief rivals were celebrating a championship every year? Didn’t you want to root for a team that could actually win? Same goes for Cubs fans or Indians fans or Astros fans now. Face it. He’s happy in Seattle. Clearly, he believes in the Mariners turning it around, and he wants to be there for when they do.
I’ve always heard that it can take a long time for a hitter to recover from a wrist injury. I know players hate to talk about injuries and use them as an excuse, but how much of Will Middlebrooks‘s struggles can be tied back to his wrist injury last season?
From my understanding, it can take a year or even two years for a player to fully recover from a major wrist injury. Having said that, the wrist injury isn’t Middlebrooks’s problem. Wrist injuries typically sap power, and he’s hitting for power just fine.
Instead, it’s his approach at the plate. Pitchers have figured out that he can’t hit pitchers low and away. Worse than that, they know he can’t lay off of those pitches either. To minimize the damage he can do, they’re throwing him a steady diet of pitches low and away. Once he learns to either take the ball the other way, or at the very least lay off of the ones out of the strike zone, he’ll continue to struggle. Furthermore, he’s a hacker, and has been one his entire career. When he’s hitting well, it’s not a problem. When he’s not, he’s an out machine. He doesn’t have walks to rely on, so his value is severly reduced.
Against some lefties, Ellsbury looks overmatched. Why doesn’t he bunt more in those situations? He’s got the wheels.
Depending on the situation, it might be ok for him to do. Still, even with his speed, he’d be at risk of either wasting outs or conceding potential extra base hits in favor of a bunt single. While Ellsbury’s not the power threat he was in 2011, he’s got a lot more power than the seven home runs he’s hit so far this year. I’d rather see him go up to the plate swinging against a tough lefty rather than bunt–which is essentially giving up, even if you’re trying to bunt for a single.
The Sox dealt Jose Iglesias feeling that Xander Bogaerts will soon be able to handle the shortstop position. I realize they have Devin Marrero as future depth but I wonder if Mookie Betts, currently playing second base at Salem, might also get some time at shortstop. Mookie has a really high ceiling and looks to be blocked at second base due to the Dustin Pedroia contract extension.
I love Mookie Betts. I was one of the first people to really get on his bandwagon. Having said that, I don’t see how moving back to shortstop is a good idea. He was moved off of the position for a reason, and it wasn’t because there were too many good shortstops in the system (even though there are). The Red Sox feel he was better suited for second base, and I tend to trust their keen ability to evaluate prospects.
Wondering if there’s more to the Iglesias trade than meets the eye. I was at a Baltimore game and was struck by seemingly prickly interaction between Drew and Iglesias during infield tosses between innings. Another time, it seemed like Iglesias just sulked on the bench after being thrown out at second, and even after a teammate hit a homer, he just sat there. Maybe he had a hint he was being traded, but couldn’t help recalling the attitude issues that got him benched in Pawtucket. Was there any indication of a chemistry problem with Iglesias?
Who doesn’t love a conspiracy theory?! I joke, but his question isn’t completely without merit. Iglesias has been known as something of a Diva, you could say. He has long felt he should be playing in the majors, even though his bat was desperately trying to scream otherwise. It got so bad that earlier this year, he sulked his way into a multi-game suspension in triple-A soon after he was demoted in mid-April.
Having said all of that, I don’t think there was an issue with Iglesias chemistry wise. Based on what I’ve heard from player interviews is that everyone seemed to like him quite a bit. Iglesias’s trade was all about selling high on a prospect who was overperforming, and getting the best available starter on the trade market in return. It also didn’t hurt that he was essentially surplus with Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, and Garin Cecchini in the fold.