The Washington Nationals made headlines late last season when they shut down Stephen Strasburg after 159.1 innings pitched, bringing public attention to an issue that will plague the Red Sox in 2013: how many innings is too many for a young starting pitcher?
The theory that influenced the Nationals’ decision is called the Verducci Effect. It essentially states that any pitcher under the age of 25 who pitches 30+ innings more than the year before is in danger of injury the following year due to overuse.
I’m not here to throw my own opinion on the Verducci Effect – I think everybody did their own fair share of that in the weeks before an after Strasburg’s shutdown. Rather, I want to take a look at how the Verducci Effect’s influence will affect the 2013 Red Sox, by looking at the curious case of one Felix Doubront.
Doubront pitched 161 innings last season after pitching only 87.2 between the majors and minors the year before. Regardless of your opinion on the Verducci Effect, it was pretty clear Doubront was a different pitcher when the second half of the season came around.
First Half: 96 IP, 4.41 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 9.09 K/9, 3.28 BB/9
Second Half: 65 IP, 5.54 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 9.69 K/9, 4.98 BB/9
Most notable about Doubront’s second half statistics is the astronomical walk rate, which proved to be his downfall. The rest of his peripherals remained fairly stable, including a strikeout rate that actually improved. The question surrounding Doubront is what prompted this decline.
Doubront is not a pitcher who is unfamiliar with large inning counts; he pitched 129.1 innings of A-ball in 2008 and 121 in 2009. His 161 in 2012, however, is far and away the most he’s pitched in his career to this point, let alone at the major league level. It’s possible the workload contributed to his late season decline. Quite simply, he just looked tired.
Now, it should be noted that there hasn’t been any sign from the Red Sox front office to suggest they’re going to put a cap on Doubront in 2013. What I’m here to suggest, however, is that they should.
We already know 2013 is going to be a bridge year for this team. Most projections have us falling somewhere in the range of third-to-fifth in the division, generally improving but not quite contending. If that’s the case, where is the benefit to pushing Doubront beyond what he might be able to handle? I don’t think anybody would like to see a 25-year-old with the potential to be a very solid pitcher get hurt in a season that doesn’t count for much of anything.
There’s another reason I think this, though. As we know all too well, pitching depth was a serious problem last season, which is why we had to watch AaRon Cook and Daisuke Matsuzaka do their worst impressions of MLB pitchers in the second half of the season.
The thing is, that doesn’t seem to be a problem this season (knocking furiously on wood). The Sox have promising young Rubby De La Rosa waiting in the wings; the only things that kept him out of the rotation to start the year are Tommy John recovery and John Lackey’s contract. In addition, it’s possible that top pitching prospects Matt Barnes and Allen Webster could be ready for a taste of the majors late in the season.
So here’s what I think: if the Red Sox are not a contending team come August and September, why not shut down Doubront and give one or two of the other young guys a chance to go? Say we cut off Doubront around the 160 inning range – De La Rosa will more than likely be all the way back from Tommy John recovery by that point; assuming no injuries (HAH!), that becomes his spot immediately. Then come September, it’s not a stretch to think Barnes or Webster could get a peek at the majors.
I should be clear: I would not be the most cautious of GMs if I had the chance. I’m a major proponent of “winning while you can.” For instance, I was very much on board with letting Strasburg continue to pitch last year, and obviously if the Red Sox – by some miracle – found themselves contending for the division, I would probably think differently.
In such a bridge year, though, I’m more hesitant to take the risk. Nobody ever wants to see a player get hurt, but it somehow seems even worse when it happens in a lost cause. It’s for that reason I think the Red Sox shouldn’t push anything this season. Let the young guys grow, but don’t put them at risk. In a few years, it’ll pay off. I promise.
On a side note, if you want a great case of poor innings management, check out Chris Sale. A bit of fantasy baseball advice: don’t pick him.