We have learned over the years that the only things a pitcher can control are strike outs, walks and keeping the ball on the ground. Things like hits and home runs are just a factor of league averages and things like defense and luck. Lackey finished Wednesday night with an ERA of 3.89 and seems to be joining the rest of the pitchers in winning results.
The trouble is, his numbers he controls don’t back that up and he is benefiting by a run of good luck. He has only been striking out 5.10 batters every nine innings, which is down two from his career average. That is a huge drop in one season and very concerning. This is made even worse by a BB/9 that is up from 2.66 in his career to 3.60.
His ground ball rate has held at career levels leaving his change in K/BB at 1.42 this year from a career rate of 2.69. All of this doom and gloom points to a pitcher with a xFIP of 4.94. While his FIP says 4.12, which would be ok, that has a lot to do with his HR/FB rate at 5.4 percent.
That home run rate against is a big reason for his numbers so far and while his career rate is below league average at 9.2 percent that is enough to push his ERA way up when it regresses.
I still question what is going on with his pitches this year. I’ve already asked why the large jump in “cutters” this year, but while that might be a change in classification there is something a bit different in his fastball movement even if it is not a “cutter”.
On top of that we have only seen Lackey throw to Jason Varitek once so far and although his K/BB was still poor I think after looking at the numbers Tuesday this pair should be given another shot.
I have been very critical of what I see so far from Lackey this year, but I still think he is going to be an asset going forward with the Red Sox, but there is something he and the Red Sox need to figure out. There is a certain limit where numbers begin to become significant and while it is about 500 batters faced to trust a pitchers K/BB it is only about 150 batters faced to trust a pitchers K/PA. Lackey is very close to that level of confidence and why questions should be asked.