Hardball Times 2011 Forecasts

Another thing I’ve been involved in I’d like to share… I used to write a weekly column for The Hardball…

Wheeler, Jenks Added to the ‘Pen

Jenks and Wheeler will be welcome additions to the back end of the bullpen. Though Jenks may be coming off a rough season by conventional standards -- dropping in a 4.44 ERA despite nailing his key peripherals.

Those peripherals earned Jenks his two-year $12 million deal -- and for good reason. With a 10.42 K/9 rate and 3.09 BB/9 rate, the White Sox closer was able to compile a 2.59 FIP to go alongside a 1.5 WAR.

Also of note was the sustained velocity on Jenks’ fastball, which averaged a cool 95.0 mph. Many have speculated that the decline in Jenks’ strikeout rate was the result of a loss in fastball velocity, which fell from 97.0 in 2005 to 93.8 in 2008. This likely played a role, though mechanics and fatigue may have also played a role.

But it isn’t all rosy with Jenks as the Sox’ new setup man. Despite the strong peripherals, there are parts of his performance that don’t add up to stardom. While his control and groundball indicators are still excellent, his strikeout numbers give reason for pause.

In particular, Jenks’ 81.3 percent contact rate needs to improve in order to sustain such a lofty strikeout total. Most notably, his 89.7 percent zone contact rate won’t result in another strikeout rate north of 9 per 9 anytime soon.

Nevertheless, Jenks is a very good reliever who should have no problem registering an ERA in the mid-3.00s, which will be more than acceptable for an AL East team with championship aspirations.

Dan Wheeler was the other primo signing by the Sox this past week, inked for $3 million on Saturday. The former Rays bullpen hand is coming off another stellar season -- his third consecutive with an ERA under 3.35.

The Wheeler signing is certainly an interesting one, however, as his superb ERAs are largely the product of extremely low BABIPs. In fact, his lowest of the last three seasons occurred this year, with a .243. The other two were .202 and .203 in 2008 and 2009, respectively.

What makes Wheeler so interesting is the fact that he has been able to sustain his low BABIPs. Though examples of pitchers with this degree of control over their BABIP are rare, there are instances of hurlers with some control over BABIP.

Therefore, this signing could be a well calculated move by the Red Sox, as they may have found an inefficiency in the free agent market -- signing pitchers who do not fit the sabermetric stereotype of a successful pitcher. It’s difficult to say whether or not Wheeler will be able to repeat his success, but for $3 million it may be worth the risk -- especially since Wheeler is a worthy reliever with or without the BABIP boost.

Aside from BABIP, however, Wheeler does have a checklist of to-do items to fix before 2011 kicks off. In particular, he will have to adjust his approach on the mound and throw more strikes.

Wheeler has always been a command specialist, throwing nearly 55 percent of his pitchers inside the zone in his career. That changed in 2010, however, as that rate dropped to just 45.5 percent.

While drops in zone percentage are not always troubling on their own, the fact that Wheeler did not see an accompanying increase in O-Swing percentage is cause for concern. Oftentimes, pitchers will respond to hitters swinging outside of the zone by throwing more chase pitches. This does not seem to be the case with Wheeler, however, as his O-Swing was largely unchanged from 2009.

Though Wheeler remains a very talented pitcher, these rates bear watching.

Red Sox Fans Are Enjoying the Christmas Season

Just a little something different for the weekend before Christmas. Santa came early in New England!

Dan Wheeler Is Bringing His Slider To The Sox

It is being reported that the Red Sox have signed Dan Wheeler. The former Rays reliever should be an asset,…

Sox Add Jenks to Bullpen Mix

It is being reported that the Sox have added a major piece to their bullpen puzzle today, former White Sox…

Evan in Graphical Player 2011

I have a GREAT holiday gift idea for you. Okay, with that blatant shill aside, I am appearing in the…

Carl Crawford’s Impact Against the Boston Red Sox

For nearly seven years Carl Crawford was the best player in the AL East not wearing red stockings or pinstripes.…

2011 Projections: Jon Lester

Late last night, it was reported that Cliff Lee had decided to accept an offer from one of his former…

When Winning Isn’t Enough, Crawford & Gonzalez at the Plate

When Winning Isn’t Enough

Perhaps the biggest take away from the 2010 season was that the Boston Red Sox’ popularity has waned significantly since their 2004 World Championship. Not surprisingly, with the fan base’s angst relieved, the daily fervor and obsession began to fade -- taking with it the team’s profitability.

2007’s championship dealt another blow, as success (and, to another degree, championships) became somewhat routine.

The Red Sox’ 2010 campaign hammered that point home as television ratings and overall interest in the team took a considerable hit. Theories as to why this occurred often cite poor performance as the primary culprit.

However, this logic seems to gloss over the fact that, by all accounts, Boston’s following was diminishing even while the club was in the playoff hunt. If the playoff chase is primary mover in team interest, then ratings and team interest shouldn’t have fallen until September. However, they were slumping far earlier as both fair-weather and hardcore fans, alike, dropped out of the running.

This left the organization in a precarious position. In a market big on bite but relatively small on population, that ravenous fanbase was what kept Boston among the elite in profitability and, by corollary, personnel spending and success.

With this new and unfamiliar uncertainty, the organization seems to have mounted a response:

Go out and make headlines.

The Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford acquisitions may be a telling peek into the club’s changing paradigm -- one where personnel moves have as much to do about building a winner as they do about generating excitement.

And if this off-season is any indication, the club plans on reviving their lethargic fan base by giving them some news toys -- something to get excited about.

And though these acquisitions are, by all accounts, great moves for the team, there is something a bit unsettling about their nature.

In many ways, the departure from the club’s tight-pursed, efficient approach suggests a bit of weakness.

Theo Epstein doesn’t enjoy signing long, expensive deals for free agents. Theo Epstein doesn’t like giving up premium prospects for expiring free-agents-to-be.

Under the Epstein Doctrine, players are merely serial numbers who combine to form a model of efficiency for the rest of the league to follow.

However, this current offseason (the Carl Crawford deal in particular) has been an abandonment of that canon, which begs the question: has the Red Sox’ business model changed?

Are the Boston Red Sox feeling an uncomfortable squeeze from a shrinking fan base?

It may be so. It may be that the team needs to arouse it’s fan base to hit internal sales and profitability quotas. It would make sense, as both players were acquired just days before tickets went on sale to the general public -- did we mention the Christmas buying season is in full swing?

Whatever the case may be, 2011 could be setting the stage for some changes in operations over the next few seasons -- or they could be setting the stage for more financial uncertainty.

If the Crawford and Gonzalez signings “work” in drumming up interest in the club, we may see more big free agent splashes in years to come; while low-profile, but similarly valuable, deals such as Mike Cameron’s take a back seat.

This is a particularly interesting scenario since there is no telling how long the halo effect of these signings will last. One year? Two years? Several months?

It’s anyone’s guess.

If, on the other hand, they fail to increase viewership and revenue streams, then there is a possibility that the Sox will have to rein in spending over the next few years while they sort out their new position in baseball’s financial hierarchy.

If the decrease in popularity lasts for a prolonged period, this could have dire affects on the team’s on-field success as the front office pulls back from personnel spending. This, in turn, would mean fewer playoff appearances, which may drive down interest, revenue streams, and team spending.

A vicious cycle … and all unfortunate reminders that, at its heart, baseball really is a business.

Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford at the Plate

What a week.

The additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez make the Red Sox’ lineup one of the most formidable in the league. Crawford’s bat profiles very well as a top of the order hitter, while Gonzalez should challenge 120 RBI from the middle of the lineup.

Not surprisingly, both players check out as safe bets for 2011.

Gonzalez’ star looks to rise from the favorable offensive environs (as fellow writer Darryl Johnston pointed out on Wednesday), which should go a long way toward boosting his power numbers. He should have no problem challenging 40 homers in Fenway.

And, if he can, in fact, realize improve his power over seasons past, he may see a slight uptick in his walk totals. Data has shown that home run and isolated slugging percentages have a strong correlation with low zone percentages. Therefore, if Gonzalez becomes a 45 HR hitter in Fenway (as opposed of a 35 HR type in San Diego), he could see his OBP rise over the .400 mark -- with an outside shot at a 1.000 OPS.

If there is one knock on Gonzalez, it’s that he may benefit from reigning in his new-found aggressive approach. Had A Gonz managed to keep his O-Swing to a more manageable 26 percent (instead of 31.8 percent in 2010), he could have seen his OBP rise to as .413.

But that’s nitpicking.

Now that he’s in a media market fitting of his talent, he’ll be a household name in no time.

America, meet Adrian Gonzalez.

While he’s a very different hitter than his new teammate, we can make strikingly similar remarks about Crawford’s aggressive approach at the plate. While he has few flaws in his offensive game, perhaps one weakness is his penchant for offering at pitches outside the zone.

With an O-Swing of 35.6 percent last season (up from 31.0 in 2009), Crawford could stand to keep the bat on his shoulder a little more. As a result, pitchers baited him into chasing more often, resulting in a Zone Percentage decrease of six percent.

The Sox may want him to be more patient this season, but it’s anyone’s guess whether or not this will actually matter. While in many cases a rise in O-Swing can take a chunk out of a batter’s OBP, Crawford saw enough of a decrease in Zone Percentage to almost completely offset the effect on his walk rate.

Therefore, if Crawford reverted back to his old level of 31.0 percent O-Swing, two things could happen.

One, he could see an increase in his walk rate to a nine percent -- with an OBP north of .375.

The other, pitchers will adjust to the trend and stop throwing out of the zone, resulting a little to no change.

Given the options, maybe an adjustment is worth a shot. With Boston’s philosophy concerning patience at the plate, there’s a pretty good chance of that happening.

Return of the Boston Red Sox, Sunday Thoughts and Predictions

How quickly things can change. It’s almost easy to forget how bad it was for the Red Sox in 2010.…