Josh Beckett: Home Runs, Endurance and The Stretch

It hasn’t exactly been a great return to the Red Sox rotation for Josh Beckett. With a 6.82 ERA in…

The 2010 Arquimedez Pozo Awards

In July of 1996, the Red Sox called up a young third baseman from Pawtucket.  It was not his first…

8/24 Online Seats Game Thread: Pauley Comes Up, For Mariners

In the few years he spent with the Boston Red Sox farm system, David Pauley wasn't half the pitcher that Josh Beckett was. However, tonight, he will head into Fenway a Mariner, with half of Beckett's ERA.

Daisuke’s First 100 Innings

It’s hats-off time to Boston’s favorite failure, Daisuke Matsuzaka, for eclipsing the 100 IP mark in commendable fashion. Perhaps the moniker “Boston’s favorite failure” is a bit harsh, but it’s difficult to separate his past four seasons from the other-worldly expectations following his acquisition leading up to the 2007 season. Failure for not living up to expectations. But, hats off for turning in a season which, by the rest of the league's standards, was quite good. 19 GS, 118.0 IP, 4.19 ERA, 4.314 Expected ERA Not too shabby. And to add a bit of optimism to the mix, Daisuke has made considerable strides this season toward improving his walk rates -- and stepping up a rung or two in the Red Sox' rotation. Daisuke’s "Lack" of Control For years, Daisuke’s lack of control has been the bugaboo of analysts nationwide -- his career 4.26 BB/9 rate undermining otherwise excellent and occasionally brilliant stuff. That “lack of control,” however, has been somewhat misleading given the classical interpretation of the term. Most consider control and walk rate as interchangeable and synonymous: pitchers with good control who can locate balls in the strike zone will have good walk rates. Therefore, since Matsuzaka walks a large number of batters, he must have poor control. However, the relationship between walk rates and command is, in fact, far more complex than just throwing pitches in the zone. Rather, it is an interaction dominated by two factors: locating pitches in the strike zone, and, more clandestine, inducing swings when the balls are thrown outside of the zone. Then you get a guy like Matsuzaka, who throws a monkey wrench into the classical definition of control (a pitcher’s zone percentage) and our interpretation of that skill (a pitcher’s walk rate). And, the funny thing is, Daisuke happens to be quite adept at locating pitches in the strike zone -- despite how much we bemoan his lack of "control." Walks and O-Swing Percentages Back in ’08, Daisuke threw 51.2 percent of his offerings in the zone. A good mark by most all standards, the mark was around league average in '08 -- and would have ranked among the MLB's Top 10 had it occurred this season. That said, it’s funny that so many of us (myself included) consider Matsuzaka to have such bad command when, in fact, his “command” has never been particularly poor. In fact, locating balls in the zone has never been a problem. Until 2010, batters just hadn’t chased his offerings out of the zone -- which led to more balls that would have been strikes for other pitches. And it’s difficult to understate the effect of that deficiency. To put in perspective the full effect of his improved O-Swing percentage (9.0 percent; 20.7 O-Swing in '08, 29.7 O-Swing in '10), an increase by 9.0 percent, on average, is just under a full walk per nine innings -- 0.914 BB/9 to be exact. As for where it counts -- runs scored -- his expected ERA would drop 0.685 runs, from 4.799 to 4.314 with the prescribed change in O-Swing percentage. While analysts the world over (rightfully) point to zone percentage as the primary mover in walk rates, O-Swing is just as important -- albeit grossly underestimated. But it shouldn’t come as any surprise. The effect of a swing on a pitch outside the zone is rather profound. Instead of the pitch resulting as ball, which it would have in the event of a no-swing, it instead becomes a strike or a ball-in-play -- either ending or changing the complexion of the at-bat. And the proof is in the pudding. Countless pitchers can sustain miniscule walk rates despite locating precious few pitches within the zone. Case in point: Hiroki Kuroda and Shaun Marcum have the third (42.0 percent) and fifth (42.5 percent) lowest zone percentages in the league, despite maintaining walk rates of 2.32 BB/9 and 2.06 BB/9, respectively. This is due in no small part to their exceptional O-Swing rates of 35.4 percent for Kuroda and 33.1 for Marcum. Still, given his ability to throw balls in the zone, Daisuke himself may be his own worst enemy. Scouts and coaches have long espoused his persistence in nibbling the corners of the zone when he would be better suited attacking the zone. This deficiency has, no doubt, allowed plenty of batters to get ahead in the count or recover when behind -- contributing to his large walk totals. Not surprisingly, Matsuzaka has underperformed his expected walk totals in every season of his career. 2010: Expected BB/9, 3.142; Actual BB/9, 4.12 2009: Expected BB/9, 4.133; Actual BB/9, 4.55 2008: Expected BB/9, 3.902; Actual BB/9, 5.05 2007: Expected BB/9, 3.281; Actual BB/9, 3.52 And, since underperforming expected walk values seem to be an unrepeatable skill for the vast majority of Major League pitchers, there is much to be said for a pitcher who accomplishes this in four out of four seasons. Stuff or Approach? When it comes to answering the question "why have things changed?" we begin our search by examining Daisuke's stuff. At first glance, it would seem that his slider would be the logical place to look, as it is the only pitch in his repertoire whose movement has changed significantly from his 2009 offerings. In the case of an increase in O-Swing, what we would expect to see is a change in break that would make it resemble a fastball. This would spike O-Swing because batters would chase the slider off the plate thinking that it was a fastball -- increasing the number of O-Swings. However, the opposite has happened, as this season the slider’s movement has differentiated further from the fastball, with a larger gap in both horizontal and vertical movement in 2010 than in years past. Therefore, with the new slider, it would seem that hitters would pick up the pitch’s movement earlier and lay off the pitch outside of the zone. This suggests that a more deceptive slider is not the case. Without a significant change in the movement in any of his other pitches, it is difficult to find evidence that would suggest that this has caused the O-Swing increase. Ruling out this affect, we are left to believe that Matsuzaka must have altered the way in which he is setting up his pitches. He is probably locating and sequencing pitches differently than in the past, or has improved his communication and chemistry with Victor Martinez. However, without any source reliable information on this subject, it is difficult to further analyze this point. Still, in Daisuke's case, the "why" is less important than "what will happen next?" And, the good news is -- if his 2010 success is indeed based on a change in approach -- there is reason to believe Matsuzaka can sustain his improved O-Swing percentage into 2011. And, with the team’s commitment to Daisuke and the Seibu Lions growing to approximately $18.5 million next year, the team can only hope that Daisuke will maintain his gains. And he’ll have to, as Boston can't afford another season of poor walk rates, inefficiency, and sub-par production. -Mike Silver

Draft picks or prospects

It is probable that the Red Sox will not play meaningful October baseball. They still have a puncher’s chance but it is unlikely.

We will have a much better notion if the Olde Towne Team can make a push for the postseason after the series with the Rays on August 29. It should give the front office just enough time to place the free agents to be on waivers, so they could be moved before September 1.

Taking Stock of Playoff Chances

With sixty games left in the 2010 Regular Season, the Boston Red Sox sit five games on the outside of the playoff race and an additional two and a half games out of the division title. According to Coolstandings.com's playoff odds, the Red Sox playoff chances fall just under twenty percent with the magic number of wins to gain a playoff berth around ninety-seven, the Red Sox would need to go 39-21 -- .650 ball -- coming home to earn a chance at the post-season. Thinking back to the torrid end of summer in 2004, the post-Arod and Jason Varitek altercation Sox won forty-three of their last sixty-three games to push a similar record as this team stands now to the ninety-eight win plateau. Looking forward, specifically with respect to the remaining schedule, can this team replicate the legend-in-the-making 2004 run? Unfortunately, it will be a tough road to hoe.

7/16 Online Seats Game Thread: Second Half Stumble

Not exactly the way to start off the second half of the year, but the Boston Red Sox will try to get some vengeance against youngster Colby Lewis, as Felix Doubront looks for a second win on the year.

7/15 Online Seats Game Thread: Welcome Back

Welcome back boys and girls. Hope you all enjoyed your nice, relaxing All-Star break (we all know David Ortiz did). The Boston Red Sox's are one of the few teams back in action tonight, as veteran Tim Wakefield looks to improve on his ugly record against youngster Tommy Hunter and the revamped Texas Rangers.

Trade deadline primer Red Sox eBook

Leading up to the trade deadline, having a good handle on what the Red Sox are seeking and what other teams have available are obviously musts.

That's why I have contributed to TwinsCentric's trade deadline primer eBook, and the folks over there have come out with 30 different eBooks per team, which costs just $9.95 per team.

All proceeds are divided evenly between TwinsCentric (of which most goes to supporting the actual production of the eBook) and Fire Brand. Fire Brand's costs have risen dramatically in recent days and we need every last cent in order to keep Fire Brand functioning. Not only does this eBook contain fantastic content that would make a great personal resource or gift to a baseball fanatic, it's just $9.95. Which, believe it or not, will go a long way toward sustaining Fire Brand.

7/11 Online Seats Game Thread: Dice Tries to Secure Rubber Match

Lackey's hard loss yesterday force the Boston Red Sox's into a game three rubber match against our neighbors to the North. Daisuke Matsuzaka will do his best to pull out the series win, as Jesse Litsch looks for his first win of the season.