Category: Boston Red Sox

Jason Bay is now average defender

Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
A little over a week ago fangraphs.com updated their UZR calculations with the first batch of 2010 data. This update included some work on arm skill as well as changes for quirky stadiums including Fenway Park. This change was done to include previous seasons and now Jason Bay made one of the largest gains as his -13.8 runs value became a 1.9 value. John Tomase decided to use this as a chance to say UZR owes Jason Bay an apology. Let's start with a reminder there is no chance the Red Sox are using UZR and have their own model so let's not make any assumptions UZR had anything to do with the Red Sox failing to sign him. Even with the changes no stat is perfect and I'm sure we'll be discussing the next Bay in the offseason. Perhaps that will be Jeremy Hermida who has improved his defense in UZR coming from Florida.

Adrian Gonzalez takes another step away from the Sox

MLB 2010 - Padres Beat Rockies 5-4
I've never thought the Red Sox had much shot of adding Adrian Gonzalez this past offseason or any year before his free agency year. So far this season though Gonzalez and the Padres have made a deal even harder as he is off to a huge start and the Padres are winning. They are currently 4 games above .500 in this young season with Gonzalez producing very well. That is not the newest reason for a diminished chance to add Gonzalez. I think the awful signing of Ryan Howard might hinder the future prospects of signing the slugging first baseman. Howard agreed to a five year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies for a total of $125 million. That at first seems like a bit of an overpay, but when you add on a $23 million option with a $10 million buy out and his two years left on his current deal it is a train wreck. This has to change the market when looking at all the big name power hitting sluggers coming up in the next few years. That list includes Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. Plus they're all better and younger than Howard. These guys will all be signing deals that start in there pre 30's except the best of the bunch, Pujols.

One Coming, One Going?

In a day that saw the Red Sox add another very intriguing, young, good hitting catcher, they may also be saying goodbye to a old friend. (Click on the headline or 'read more' below.)

That is $39.5 million in wasted talent

Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins
After John Lackey's $18.7 million contract, the next three highest paid Sox are J.D. Drew ($14 million), David Ortiz ($13 million) and Mike Lowell ($12.5 million). So far those three hitters have a combined (through Friday) for 22 hits in 121 at-bats with 16 walks and two home runs. That comes out to a baseline average of .181 and a .262 on-base percentage.

On the advanced side of the Hall of Metrics they are averaging a weighted Runs Created plus (wRC+) of 65.666 which is actually a little misleading because Lowell actually has a very decent wRC+ number of 121, albeit in only 20 official at bats this year. The average wRC+ between Ortiz and Drew is 38 (44 for Ortiz, 32 for Drew). Conversely, runs are hard to create when you are not getting on base and the mean between the three players weighted on-base average is .281 again with Lowell skewing the numbers with a .361 wOBA while Ortiz and Drew are at .251 and .233, respectively.

The Small adjustment that meant all the difference for Ryan Kalish

Ryan Kalish at the dishOutfielder Ryan Kalish fell so far below the proverbial Mendoza Line shortly after he was promoted to Portland last season that he was virtually invisible. Kalish began the season at high-A Salem and literally hit his way into a promotion to the Sea Dogs. In 32 games with Salem, Kalish hit .304 with five home runs, 21 RBI, a .434 OBP and seven stolen bases in 10 attempts. But in his first 21 at-bats with Portland, Kalish managed just one hit – repeat, one – which translated into a .048 batting average. “Honestly, it was a total mental adjustment that I had to make,” said Kalish who turned 22 on March 28 but was the youngest player on Portland at the time of his promotion. “When I got there, I wanted to do too much. I was putting pressure on myself and was saying ‘In this at-bat I really, really need to get a hit.’ That’s the hardest way to play the game – by putting pressure on yourself.”