BOS 5, TB 3: Beckett’s back

Any questions about Josh Beckett returning to his 2007 form were answered against the Tampa Bay Rays. At least for one start.

Poll: Who wins the first “AL East Showdown”?

Today we pick right back up where we left off last season; playing the Tampa Bay Rays. For those of you who don't believe early season matchups matter over the long haul, I'll remind you that when it comes to the 2009 AL East three teams are fighting for what will likely be two playoff spots. The difference between October baseball and some late season tee times could likely come down to only a handful of games. That handful starts today.

With that in mind, our first "in season" poll question asks "who will draw first blood in the AL East"?

As always, the poll can be found in the left hand sidebar. Votes will be tallied tomorrow.

Middlebrooks out with Torn Hamstring

According to a report on SoxProspects.com, third base prospect Will Middlebrooks suffered a torn hamstring during drills this past weekend and will be out until May, or possibly longer. Will was projected to start at Class-A Greenville where he'd split time between third base and DH with fellow top prospect Michael Almanzar.

Lars to play some OF in AAA

Last December, Sox Director of Player Development Mike Hazen released a statement to announce that the ultra-versatile Casey Kelly will both pitch 100 innings and play shortstop in a way that provides both the team and himself greater flexibility for the long haul, and help increase the likelihood that his professional career will ultimately progress at the position at which he is most valuable. Recently and similarly, another announcement was made that top prospect Lars Anderson will get a cup of tea as an outfielder when he gets promoted to Pawtucket some time this year.

Will Yankees make playoffs?

Today's "Great Debate" at MVN Outsider asks if the Yankees will make the playoffs. Money quote:

Don't get me wrong -- they will contend. It's just not a lock that they'll finish in second in the AL East. The Red Sox are arguably one of the most complete teams in baseball, and it would be a massive disappointment if they were to miss the postseason...Despite the spending spree, the Yankees do still have a fair amount of questions left to answer. They'll be in the running for a playoff spot, just as they were last year, but a second place finish in the East is by no means guaranteed.

Brad Wilkerson signed to minor-league deal

According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Red Sox have signed OF/1B Brad Wilkerson to a minor league deal with roster and playing time incentives. Last year, he split time with Toronto and Seattle by hitting a combined .220/.308/.326 in 309 plate appearances and fighting nagging shoulder and back injuries.

Although he may only be 6th or 7th on the outfield depth chart, Wilkerson provides solid depth if his shoulder is healthy. He's always been a solid player when he's been on the field. He's only a year removed from hitting 20 home runs, gets on base at a decent clip, and possesses the rare ability of being a left handed hitter who hits lefties better than righties.

The Varitek Signing Aftershock

When comparing Varitek to similar catchers of his caliber and taking todays economy into effect, this is just bad management on the Sox part. However, this is no longer here nor there, and I think every rational Sox fan agrees with this. The real question now is, how do the rest of the catchers stack up after this?

Not to belabor an already conspicuous thought, but with the games played incentive that was so generously added by Mr. John Henry & Co. and Tito Francona's persistence on sticking with his veterans, one can safely presume that Varitek will get the vast majority of the at-bats coming from the catching position. So now the question becomes even more interesting, who gets the other fraction of the at-bats?

What to make of Bubba Bell

Perhaps the most perplexing, yet enticing prospect in the Sox system, Bubba Bell is at the stage in his career where performance is everything. There is no projection left. Always known as a hitter with above-average skills all-around, he no longer can point to this fact, and must produce or he'll remain a career minor leaguer until he's finally forced to retire. After a breakout season in the wind-tunnel, otherwise known as High-A Lancaster, Bell had many scouts wondering if he had made the necessary adjustments to become a major league regular. But even then, his ultimate ceiling was in question.

He had always been known to have solid, yet unspectacular tools all around. He makes excellent contact, has decent power, solid plate discipline, a tick above average speed, a good glove with decent range, and a plus arm. He can play all outfield positions well, but profiles more as a right fielder because of his stocky build. With his strong work ethic, fundamentally balanced swing, and contact rate, there isn't much doubt that he could at least serve as an adequate fourth outfielder. So what remains as Bubba's biggest stepping stone to the major leagues?

Sox system ranked 7th by ESPN

The 2nd Annual ESPN rankings of the top systems and top prospects by Keith Law were officially released this morning. Catching a lot of fans by surprise was the generous ranking at #7. I really can't quibble too much, however, as you could have made a case for every team in that 7-12 range. It's really just a matter of opinion, and the debate gets brought up a few times every year. Do you prefer a system with more impact major league ready talent or one that's deep with some impact talent at the top and a lot of low-level high-upside guys filling out the top 10. Keith understands that, and provided some valid reasoning:

While it's certainly feasible logic, I don't think you can accurately grade the 2008 draft class quite yet. Not that Law was doing that, as he clearly stated it has the "potential", but I don't know if you can precisely rank the Sox system over teams with more top-heavy systems like the Giants and to an extent, the Orioles. Of course, there's the counter-argument that guys like Pete Hissey (whose ranked 25th at SoxProspects) would probably rank in the 10-15 range for other teams in that 7-12 range. So while the Sox have graduated a lot of their top prospects, they've quickly reloaded through the amateur draft and the international market by adding a lot of depth, and a lot of high-ceiling guys.

Fire Brand explains Win Values

Baseball has forever been a game of statistics and over the past few decades, sabermetrics have taken this passion way beyond batting average and on-base percentage. Growing up, my family always said all you needed to do to be successful was to "build a better mouse-trap," meaning, if you can find a way to improve on existing information, to make something more efficient, you'll find success follows. Statistics in baseball are the new mouse-trap; for the most part, the numbers being used haven't changed for 100 years, they are just being manipulated in a way to provide a better benchmark to evaluate a player's value and/or worth. The end goal never changes: a better mouse-trap still kills the mouse in the end, and a better statistic still just evaluates a player, but the means or accuracy of doing so makes it special.

The problem with the evolution of statistics in baseball has been the public acceptance of them. I'd be just as willing to bet that Woodrow Wilson and his friends talked about Babe Ruth's batting average in 1915 as I would bet that Barack Obama won't discuss the VORP of David Ortiz in 2009. Some statistics resonate through the general public and become part of the casual fan's conversation, and some don't. The "stickiness" of a stat depends on how complicated it is to understand, calculate, or relate to something the average fan can appreciate.

The numbers being thrown around by stat heads these days are often hard to grasp. Even an easy concept, such as Batting Average on Ball In Play, can be misunderstood and misused, as I demonstrated during my fourth outfielder series. Okay, so we all agree that batting average is a horrible statistic to base the value of a player on, but what metric can we all agree on that makes sense? Fortunately for us, Dave Cameron over at FanGraphs, has put together an eight part series on Win Values.