As Usual the Red Sox Need Help in the Bullpen

Even before Jonathan Papelbon blew a save on Wednesday night in Denver, the Red Sox needed help in the back end of the bullpen. Daniel Bard can not go two innings each game the Sox are leading in a close game in going into the eighth inning.

Both Papelbon and Hideki Okajima’s production have been trending downward over the past few seasons. Okajima’s K/BB ratio has fallen each since he arrived in Boston. He is becoming more of a situational reliever.

Bullpen positives and negatives

Look on the bright side. When it comes to the Sox best relief pitchers, all are home grown.

Yet, outside of Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard and Manny Delcarmen there has not been a lot to like about the Sox bullpen this year. You probably had the feeling, as I did, heading into the season that the relief corps would be somewhat of a problem when the big decision heading out of Fort Myers was whether to carry Scott Schoeneweis or Scott Atchison.

Into the second week of June, the Sox bullpen has an ERA of 4.24. Compare that to the strong relief that a team like the Padres are getting (2.70 ERA) or or the Rays (3.23) and you see just how far off the pace Boston has fallen in an area that presumably was a strength coming into the season and was a relative strength last year (3.80 ERA).

Epstein’s Draft Hits… and Misses

With the 2010 Amateur Draft just around the corner (Monday June 7 through Wednesday, June 9), I wanted to spend this week's column looking back at the previous best and worst picks of the Theo Epstein era, an era in which the strength of the minor league system has been both a top priority for the team and an area of almost unparalleled success.

With seven drafts under their belts, this front office has taken the team from a roster of two homegrown regulars (Nomar Garciaparra and Trot Nixon) in 2003 to eight in 2010. Among them are a perennial Cy Young contender, a powerhouse corner infielder, a league champion base stealer, an elite closer, a man with a 100 mile an hour fastball, and an MVP. In addition, there is a new crop of talent maturing in the minors, with some players nearing the point where they will make a Major League contribution. So, not bad for a few years. After the jump, we'll take a look at the best and worst draft picks of the past seven years.

How About That Papelbon, Can — Or Should — Darnell Fit in Boston?

How About That Papelbon? For two seasons now, the Sox have agonized in their decision whether to pop the engagement question or consult a lawyer about divorce arrangements concerning Jon Papelbon. Given his struggles thus far this season, their deliberations have only grown more urgent as to whether or not they should cut ties with their closer. Either way, whatever the powers that be may decide, fans should not lament what they are getting from Papelbon in the ninth inning.

Poll: Early Season Stories.

As the season settles in, which Red Sox story has your eye?

Sounding the alarms from the pen

I love to preach patience and we have a long season ahead, but I think it's time to question the bullpen. It's only been 4 games, but a team putting big situations in the hands of Scott Schoeneweis and Scott Atchinson might want to start looking for help. Of course we know that isn't the only trouble, but I'm starting to wonder if we have the arms to get to Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima and Jonathon Papelbon.

Our lefty specialist has already been called on to face left handers and while he has a career xFIP of 3.53, but if you try to stretch him his xFIP jumps to 5.19. This should limit his usage exclusively to lefty hitters and should not be used for any more than that.

Small samples and spring flings

Every spring, we get the March stars who try to earn a roster spot, but hopefully we all know by now that a month or so of at bats is not enough to tell anything.

Half the time, players are facing minor leaguers and the rest are players working on their approach. Any major league team who picks a player based on any statistic over another in March is only setting themselves up to be disappointed.

So far this spring, Josh Reddick has been tearing the cover off the ball with a .400/.429/.700 line in 40 ABs. That sure looks nice and Jeremy Hermedia is matching him with .400/.447/.571 -- but does anyone think either is a better option in right field than J.D. Drew who is currently hitting .154/.241/.231?

You might say that comparing them to an established player making $14 million this year is a silly comparison, but why would that be any different than saying Clay Buchholz is not ready to start this year based on 6.2 IP?

10 questions of regression for 2010

With trucks heading to Florida yesterday it's a good time to look at the questions for what the Red Sox hope will happen in 2010. With breakouts and new levels of performance there is always the possibility of regression. That can also include getting better as you return to the mean. What are the top ten possible regressions for 2010? 10. Can Manny Delcarmen find the plate - While Manny never had great control there was an alarming rate of walks in 2009. He walked 5.13 batters every nine innings or more than a batter every two innings. We found the signs of arm problems here and I think that with health he should be better, but a better walk rate is required for him to be a solid contributor.

The state of the bullpen

This offseason has centered mostly around the improved defense and addition of John Lackey to our rotation. The bullpen though has been largely left to small moves to patch up the back and look for solid years from the rest. As it stands the pen returns Jonathon Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen. The starting rotation currently has 6 solid starters with Tim Wakefield as a long reliever and Boof Bonser as a long shot to squeeze in. They have also added Brian Shouse, Edwin Moreno, Jorge Sosa, Scott Atchinson, Robert Manuel and Ramon A. Ramirez. The team entered 2009 with 12 starting pitchers including 5 starters and 7 relievers. Let's assume they enter 2010 with the same numbers, but we'll label the last reliever as on the bubble as he could be a minor league option. Sure Things Closer and setup are solid with Papelbon and Bard continuing were they left 2009. We have had plenty of discussions about these two here, here, here and here. While Bard still has some questions and his projections show he isn't quite ready to be be a closer, but a solid setup man. His CHONE projection calls for a 3.48 ERA and only a 2.09 K/BB. I have some doubts about that K/BB and think he can be much better as does MARCEL and Bill James at 2.53 and 2.80 respectively.

Papelbon gets his money

Just before the deadline the Red Sox signed Jonathan Papelbon for the 2010 season at $9.35 million dollars. With a contract value like that it's highly unlikely Papelbon is trade material. He has 2011 still under arbitration and with another raise I can't see him going anywhere. His contract this year looks like a solid deal. He has been worth 3.2, 2.2, 3.0 and 1.9 WAR over the past four years. Those values have resulted in values of $12, $9.1, $13.5 and $8.8 million in value to the team. That all makes $9.3 million seem like a very good deal. This doesn't leave any expected value over his contract though. In other words he is being paid his value and makes trading him a difficult proposition. The next step is looking ahead to his next arbitration case. As long as he maintains his health he can expect a raise again in 2011. Likely to the $12-14 million dollar range. That number makes his value a bit tougher to take. This fact also makes his trade value right now even less. Not many teams can afford to take a $9.3 million dollar closer let alone one due $12-14 in another year. This is why the Papelbon trade rumors have gone away and never had much interest from the beginning. There are plenty of teams interested in adding a proven closer, but when you have to pay full value and give up players it's not likely to get much interest.