David Ortiz

Using xBABIP and IF/F to predict some Sox’s 2009 numbers

A month ago, Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix collaborated together to come up with a new statistic -- xBABIP. For batters, a .300 BABIP is not a reliable benchline (as it is for pitchers), nor is there one standard benchline across all batters. They have to be personalized, which Dutton and Bendix did.

David Ortiz looks to be in line for a monster regression to the mean... except in this case, regression is a good thing. You can expect a .300 average as a reasonable forecast next year for Big Papi.

Check out the numbers behind the reasoning for Big Papi, plus some interesting numbers on Jason Bay, Julio Lugo and others...

January 7, 2009 evan brunell

Alex Cora

Lugo to the Tigers talks stalled, interest in Cora

Julio Lugo's fate next season has seemingly rested as much in the arms of the Detroit Tigers as the Boston Red Sox.

With talks between the Tigers and Red Sox regarding any potential swap of overpriced pitchers looking to rebound (Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis) and overpriced shortstops looking for redemption (Julio Lugo) seemingly dead in the water, the Detroit Tigers may make a move that makes it even more likely that Julio Lugo remains a Red Sox in 2009.

November 28, 2008 josh lacey

Dontrelle Willis

Happy Thanksgiving!

Happy Thanksgiving! Hope this is a time you can all enjoy the things that we have been blessed with.

Sean McAdam reports that Julio Lugo for Dontrelle Willis or Nate Robertson have stalled and are unlikely to pick up. The Red Sox will also offer arbitration to Jason Varitek, a move he is likely to decline.

November 27, 2008 evan brunell

Coco Crisp

Could Julio Lugo be 2009’s Coco Crisp?

While most people are dreaming of an off chance that Dontrelle Willis could recreate himself in a Boston Red Sox uniform, there is recent precedent that might point towards not rushing Julio Lugo out of town quite so quickly.

Tell me if this story sounds even remotely familiar?

An under-performing veteran coming off an injury plagued season, having never fulfilled his promise present at his debut as a member of the Boston Red Sox, has found his position usurped by a rookie down the stretch before entering Spring Training in the unfamiliar position of a high priced back up. Common logic from fans and the greater baseball community already has that player traded to fill other holes and to allow the rookie to take the mantle of their position without impediment.

November 25, 2008 josh lacey

Brian Fuentes

Morning Cup o’ Rumors: MLB; Sox needs

Let's take a whirl throughout the rumors in baseball and see what's going on...

In Milwaukee, Doug Melvin picked up Mike Cameron's option, but the Yankees have now come calling -- presumably dangling Melky Cabrera and Ian Kennedy. With Alex Rodriguez being solicited for advice on Cameron and rumblings that the Yankees might sign second baseman Orlando Hudson and move him to centerfield, you can expect to see a new centerfielder roaming the new Yankee Stadium next year.

A back of the rotation starter is being looked at so Clay Buchholz isn't handed the job in spring training. Paul Byrd could return.

November 7, 2008 evan brunell

A.J. Burnett

Projections for 2009 Red Sox and others

Bill James has come out with his new handbook for 2009, and in the handbook are the early statistical projections for players next year. This may be especially significant in the case of the Red Sox, as James has a vast amount of knowledge of players in the Red Sox system due to being employed by the team.

November 3, 2008 evan brunell

Jed Lowrie

Hand Lowrie that starting job

One plotline throughout this offseason will be the question of what will happen at shortstop: will the Red Sox install rookie Jed Lowrie into the role or go back to injured, mega-bust Julio Lugo?

October 23, 2008 evan brunell

2008 ALDS

How ‘Bout Dem New Sox?

Jason Bay and Jed Lowrie may be new to a Boston uniform, but they’ve proven unbelievably crucial to the Red…

October 7, 2008 evan brunell

Julio Lugo

Lugo for Willis in the offseason?

From Buster Olney’s blog on ESPN.com: Earlier this week, Jon Paul Morosi of the Detroit Free Press speculated on a…

September 26, 2008 shawn medeiros

Jed Lowrie

Regression

With 37,000 plus patrons at Fenway Park on their collective feet and millions of fans throughout Red Sox Nation ready…

September 23, 2008 shawn medeiros