Measuring Defensive Metrics

I don't want to use this as another debate about how good or bad Jacoby Ellsbury is or anything, but this is a chance to look at the different metrics and where they come from. I'm going to center on four major metrics and what they attempt to measure as best we know. First up is John Dewan's plus/minus measurement from The Fielding Bible. Only leader boards are available for free and the rest is in the yearly Fielding Bible. This has to be one of the most involved as each players ranking involves video scouts watching every play a player makes and grading him against his peers. The resulting plus or minus value is based on how many more or less plays he make than the rest at that position. This system has a less direct effect on scoring, but how to compare players defensively. Taking a look at 2008 you have Adrian Beltre as the best third basemen in baseball with a +32. On the other end you have Edwin Encarnacion who was a -21. This number is not a run value as I understand it though and more of a comparison tool. It intends to say that Beltre made 53 more plays defensively than Encarnacion in 2008. The plus/minus system plays into another Dewan system called DRS or Defensive Runs Saved. It takes the the plays that added or subtracted to their plus/minus and assign run values to them. This gain or loss of run values results in a total value based on expected runs. Let's see the explanation straight from John:

Sox Fans Grab Mallets While Theo Prepares to Be The Whack-a-Mole

This will certainly be a defining offseason when Red Sox historians look back on Theo Epstein’s legacy as Boston GM. If the acquisitions work, fans and media alike will sing high praise – and the untouchable GM will become all the more invincible. If the moves fail, he will be chastised and become vulnerable for the first time in his career. It’s difficult to give a grade to Theo at this point of the offseason - much less begin to rip him in the media. For one, there’s still so much work to be done that any analysis is incomplete, especially with Mike Lowell hanging in limbo. On the other hand, the fact that there’s been so much contention over every signing thus far means that there's likely not a single person left in New England that is happy with our GM - and any failure for the free agents in the upcoming season will be overmagnified. Marco Scutaro, John Lackey, Mike Cameron. There is no concensus – lots of very intelligent people have advocated on both sides for all three acquisitions. Marco Scutaro is the best of a poor class of free agent shortstops. He’ll end up costing the Red Sox a 2nd round pick and is signed to a very favorable 3-year (or some would say 2-year) deal. He’s a late bloomer who some argue is a one-year wonder. Scutaro will have to be every bit as good as his breakout in 2009 for both sides to be satisfied. A good personnel move? Yes. But, it will be hard for Theo to win this one in the media...

New Poll Question: Which reclamation project is the best investment for the Sox this offseason?

It's a gamble, but which reclamation project is the best investment for the Sox this offseason? * Justin Duchscherer * Kelvim Escobar * Ben Sheets

New Poll Question: Left Field Left-overs

If Boston waves Bay good-bye and Matt Holliday is out of reach, which of these established left-fielders would you like to see play the line at Fenway in 2010? * Garret Anderson * Marlon Byrd * Fernando Tatis * Randy Winn

The Current State of Baseball Economics

Yesterday, ESPN's Rob Neyer published an article quoting Commisioner Bud Selig's thoughts concerning the current state of baseball economics. Says Selig,

Some teams lost money in 2009, baseball commissioner Bud Selig said Thursday after the final owners meeting of the year. "There was no question about that," Selig said. "I don't think the concerns have been ameliorated at all. I think the concerns are still there because all these people have their own economists." Selig said final figures for this year are still being calculated and everyone is living in the most difficult economic times since the Great Depression. He declined to identify the teams. "I think of all the heartache that's in the world," Selig said. "We live in this environment. We don't live in a bubble. And so, I think the clubs in some areas have been hit a lot harder than others."

This seems to happen every year, where multiple MLB owners allege that their team has “lost money” and therefore needs any number of amenities, including, but not limited to: extra money towards the building of a new stadium, special tax relief, more money from the state, etc, etc, etc.

Sox Interested in Braves’ Gonzalez, Soriano? Reviving the Halladay Trade

Sox Interested in Braves’ Gonzalez, Soriano? According to George King of the New York Post, the Red Sox have expressed preliminary interest in free agent relievers Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano. The team requested medical records for the two, both of whom have had arm injuries in recent seasons... Reviving the Roy Halladay Trade According to Jon Heyman of SportsIllsutrated.com, the Blue Jays’ new general manager, Alex Anthopoulos is "serious" about trading his ace, Roy Halladay...

Tim Federowicz: Rising up the prospect charts

Tim Federowicz, 22, was drafted in the seventh round of the 2008 draft. He made his debut in low-A Lowell last year before splitting time between mid-A Greenville and high-A Salem this year. For Greenville, Federowicz hit .345/.393/.562 in 226 at-bats. Moving up the ladder, Federowicz struggled when tasked with splitting playing time. In 187 at-bats, he hit .257/.276/.390. All told, he cranked 14 home runs. SoxProspects.com likes Federowicz's build as catcher and sees him as a very good major league defensive catcher. The one knock on him to date is poor plate discipline. It hasn't prevented catchers from getting big league jobs, namely Miguel Olivo. Federowicz sat down to answer some questions with Fire Brand about his experiences in his first full professional season and what the road ahead looks like.

10/3: No more Joshin’

GAME NOTES: For the Sox to go far, Jon Lester and Josh Beckett need to be at the top of their game. Lester's looking good. Is Beckett?

Fire Brand news: Affiliating with new network

Fire Brand will be affiliating with a certain sports network. The affiliation won't happen until Monday, but I hope to make the move to the new look, which will use WordPress, tomorrow.

Red Sox’s road record cautions playoff success

With Sunday's extension of the wild card lead to four games on the back of the doubleheader sweep, Boston's entrance into the playoffs as the wild card winner is all but assured. (But at seven games behind New York, it ain't over!)

This is problematic.

Don't get me wrong, making the playoffs is great, and I'd pick that over missing the playoffs. But the Red Sox don't seem as well-equipped to advance far in the playoffs as many (including I) would like to think.